peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Mar 2, 2017 23:22:31 GMT
Looks like the independent has managed to polarise voters between her and the Tories to the detriment of everyone else. Incidentally, our candidate was reluctantly standing in Christchurch based on a work qualification, doesn't live in the borough and did no campaigning at all.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 2, 2017 23:24:35 GMT
One result out of four, so the night is yet young.
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 2, 2017 23:27:01 GMT
Another poor night for UKIP, not great for Conservative or Labour But better than non-existent LD candidature! Well, upthread there is an implication that the Lib Dems may have decided to try the traditional Tory trick with "Independents", perhaps? |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 2, 2017 23:27:03 GMT
One result out of four, so the night is yet young. Redcar & Cleveland have in the past counted the next day. Any news whether their 2 will count tomorrow. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 2, 2017 23:27:52 GMT
Another poor night for UKIP, not great for Conservative or Labour Yes that was disappointing for the Conservatives. They only managed to win the seat. Unlike the LDs who could not even be bothered to put up a candidate. |
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Post by linders on Mar 2, 2017 23:30:18 GMT
Kersal Con gain
C 850, Lab 553, Ind 354, ukip 182, Grn 48, LD 39
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 2, 2017 23:31:06 GMT
Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 2, 2017 23:35:05 GMT
Kersal is the most heavily Jewish ward in Britain.
I was wondering why so many in the prediction competition thought a 'community leader' would get only 2% as an independent, even if he was against Salford City football club's redevelopment ...
... and the victorious Conservative is a rabbi !
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Mar 2, 2017 23:35:26 GMT
Another poor night for UKIP, not great for Conservative or Labour But better than non-existent LD candidature! Agreed - I would have preferred a candidate. But to be fair, this is not promising LD territory, they did not contest either of previous two contests. At worst, this is an LD "no change". |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 2, 2017 23:39:14 GMT
Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour. Labour lost the Jewish vote? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2017 23:39:49 GMT
Looks like the independent took a big chunk out of the usual Labour vote there.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 2, 2017 23:40:08 GMT
Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour. Labour lost the Jewish vote? Wonder why. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Mar 2, 2017 23:40:51 GMT
Excellent result for Conservatives.
However - am I right that this is the first time this year that they have gained a ward from anyone? But have lost SIX? (four to LD, one each to Labour and Ratepayers).
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 2, 2017 23:43:58 GMT
As Andrew pointed out in his preview, Labour lost the neighbouring ward of Sedgley in Bury in 2016 to the Conservatives for the first time since 1992.
I miscalculated by thinking that the Independent would actually split the Jewish vote, in so far as there is such a thing, and let Labour hold on. Wrong.
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 2, 2017 23:48:01 GMT
Kersal seems to be following the pattern of Tory votes holding steady while the Labour vote fragments? The way the Tories won many seats from the Lib Dems in 2015? (although it looks like quite a bit of churn may underly that conclusion!)
Kersal (Salford) result: CON: 42.0% (-1.4) LAB: 27.3% (-21.5) IND: 17.5% (+17.5) UKIP: 9.0% (+9.0) GRN: 2.4% (-3.4) LDEM: 1.9% (+1.9)
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 2, 2017 23:48:27 GMT
As Andrew pointed out in his preview, Labour lost the neighbouring ward of Sedgley in Bury in 2016 to the Conservatives for the first time since 1992. I miscalculated by thinking that the Independent would actually split the Jewish vote, in so far as there is such a thing, and let Labour hold on. Wrong. Thing is, the football stadium he was campaigning against isn't in Broughton Park which is the most heavily Jewish area - it's on Kersal Moor which is more of an ex-council housing area. And the stadium redevelopment is supported by the council. So you have a perfect storm of Corbyn annoying the Jewish Labour vote (together with the Tory candidate being a rabbi) and the council annoying the non-Jewish Labour vote. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 2, 2017 23:49:11 GMT
Kersal is the most heavily Jewish ward in Britain. I was wondering why so many in the prediction competition thought a 'community leader' would get only 2% as an independent, even if he was against Salford City football club's redevelopment ... ... and the victorious Conservative is a rabbi ! Was tempted to go for the Tory gain there - wish I'd had the courage of my convictions |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 2, 2017 23:53:55 GMT
Kersal is the most heavily Jewish ward in Britain. I was wondering why so many in the prediction competition thought a 'community leader' would get only 2% as an independent, even if he was against Salford City football club's redevelopment ... ... and the victorious Conservative is a rabbi ! Points well made Robert. I usually don't see the Teale analysis until after I have posted, and on this occasion it really would have altered my forecast. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 3, 2017 0:01:24 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won Kersal (or for that matter any ward in Salford proper) - 1992 ?
Incidentally, Blackley & Broughton was one of those constituencies which for quite a while has had a full slate of Labour councillors until now
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Post by into_oblivion on Mar 3, 2017 0:35:49 GMT
Another poor night for UKIP, not great for Conservative or Labour The big three never do well against Independents, especially in by-elections. As for UKIP, my oh my, the sky certainly is falling for them |
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