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Post by linders on Mar 3, 2017 1:03:16 GMT
As Andrew pointed out in his preview, Labour lost the neighbouring ward of Sedgley in Bury in 2016 to the Conservatives for the first time since 1992. I miscalculated by thinking that the Independent would actually split the Jewish vote, in so far as there is such a thing, and let Labour hold on. Wrong. Thing is, the football stadium he was campaigning against isn't in Broughton Park which is the most heavily Jewish area - it's on Kersal Moor which is more of an ex-council housing area. And the stadium redevelopment is supported by the council. So you have a perfect storm of Corbyn annoying the Jewish Labour vote (together with the Tory candidate being a rabbi) and the council annoying the non-Jewish Labour vote. You're wrong about Kersal Moor which is usually the most reliably Conservative part of the ward. The independent candidate won that box handily this time, taking votes from both main parties - but he did poorly on the postal votes and didn't pick up any traction in the rest of the ward. Labour won Lower Kersal comfortably but their vote completely tanked in Broughton Park. If the independent had not stood I think the Conservative win would have been even greater - probably with 50%+ of the vote.
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Post by ideal4radio on Mar 3, 2017 1:08:45 GMT
Redcar and Cleveland's Election website states that the result will be announced on the 3rd March. In the absence of any other updates, this leads me to conclude they're counting later on this morning. So, in the words of " The Two Ronnies ", it's goodnight from me and goodnight from him !!
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Post by cherrycoffin on Mar 3, 2017 3:09:40 GMT
But better than non-existent LD candidature! Well, upthread there is an implication that the Lib Dems may have decided to try the traditional Tory trick with "Independents", perhaps? I did say that the lib dems were supporting the independent candidate. As fair as I'm aware I don't think the independent had that many links to the lib dems. Very good result from my point of view. I was expecting a combined Tory/UKIP vote of at least 65%
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 3, 2017 5:45:34 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won Kersal (or for that matter any ward in Salford proper) - 1992 ? Incidentally, Blackley & Broughton was one of those constituencies which for quite a while has had a full slate of Labour councillors until now Yes it was 1992. We even missed out in 2007 and 2008 (though very close in 2007). Really pleased with this result.
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Post by Antiochian on Mar 3, 2017 8:22:46 GMT
Another poor night for UKIP, not great for Conservative or Labour But better than non-existent LD candidature! Ahem.... didn't we hold the constituency of Christchurch once...? Fightback should be made of stronger stuff..
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 3, 2017 9:51:04 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 3, 2017 11:04:24 GMT
Britain Elects reports a Lib Dem hold in Newcomen.
LDEM: 46.0% (+6.3) LAB: 28.0% (-5.8) UKIP: 16.5% (-1.9) IND: 5.6% (+5.6) IND: 3.9% (-4.2)
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Post by marksenior on Mar 3, 2017 11:05:23 GMT
Redcar Newcomen Lib Dem hold
LD 426 Lab 259 UKIP 153 Ind Hannon 52 Ind Stones 36
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 3, 2017 11:08:45 GMT
What was the Conservative score?
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Post by marksenior on Mar 3, 2017 11:13:45 GMT
Good question !!!!
Redcar Hutton Con hold
Con 860 LD 326 Lab 183 UKIP 129
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Mar 3, 2017 11:16:34 GMT
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Mar 3, 2017 11:17:15 GMT
Labour woes continue in Hutton.
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Post by bigfatron on Mar 3, 2017 11:19:54 GMT
Boy - an awful night for Labour then.... a loss in Salford, and substantially reduced vote in both Redcar elections.
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 11:23:01 GMT
Britain Elects @britainelects 10m10 minutes ago
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result: CON: 57.4% (+3.6) (since 2016 by-election +12.5%) LDEM: 21.8% (+4.4) (since 2016 by-election -5.6%) LAB: 12.2% (-16.6) (since 2016 by-election -6.6%) UKIP: 8.6% (+8.6) (since 2016 by-election +2.7%) Con HOLD.
So that completes a pretty good day for the Tories, and an awful one for Labour (again). I presume the Lib Dems were too busy holding the Redcar seat to put in the same effort here as in the last by-election, while the Tories will have seen the threat
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 11:34:54 GMT
I expect Labour put most of their Redcar efforts into Newcomen as well, hence the fairly modest swing against them there - which was less than many here predicted.
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Mar 3, 2017 11:43:41 GMT
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Post by Ruggerman on Mar 3, 2017 11:46:04 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2017 11:48:43 GMT
It is said the Labour candidate in Kersal ward was an ultra-Corbynite. The result begins to look not just explicable but inevitable.
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 11:48:47 GMT
I expect Labour put most of their Redcar efforts into Newcomen as well, hence the fairly modest swing against them there - which was less than many here predicted. Why would Labour not put effort into Redcar, where the Lib Dem vote was for an extremely longstanding councillor? I was thinking they should be in with a chance there compared to Hutton?
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Post by casualobserver on Mar 3, 2017 11:49:31 GMT
Excellent result for Conservatives. However - am I right that this is the first time this year that they have gained a ward from anyone? But have lost SIX? (four to LD, one each to Labour and Ratepayers). I'm delighted with the result in Kersal. But it has to be admitted that this is a highly atypical ward.
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