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Post by yellowperil on Feb 25, 2017 18:50:46 GMT
Not only was there no overnight counting, it was all counted many days later after the forces votes had been repatriated and divided up on various models to various constituencies. Also not every constituency polled on the same day because of Wakes Weeks in the north. You see, yellowperil , alternative facts and fake news won't get you far on this forum  It seems to work for everybody else  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2017 18:54:16 GMT
I hadn't thought about it like that before, but all that might go some way to explaining why the Greens are notably crap at by-elections. The income/earning issue is much more serious than a lot of people realise. Thinking about it now, I doubt that Caroline Lucas would ever have won Brighton Pavilion had she not been an MEP for the region and thus personally able to campaign more than full-time in the constituency for God knows how long before the election. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 25, 2017 20:01:36 GMT
You see, yellowperil , alternative facts and fake news won't get you far on this forum It seems to work for everybody else cheeky..........  |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 25, 2017 20:25:15 GMT
The income/earning issue is much more serious than a lot of people realise. Thinking about it now, I doubt that Caroline Lucas would ever have won Brighton Pavilion had she not been an MEP for the region and thus personally able to campaign more than full-time in the constituency for God knows how long before the election. And of course being an MEP has certain other financial advantages. There are plenty of ways within the rules to use the funding MEPs receive in order to promote the MEP in question. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 25, 2017 20:48:43 GMT
It's amazing how Keith Taylor's long-time work in Brighton gets passed off as Caroline Lucas making some kind of surprise breakthrough.
Taylor is a good MEP, by the way. Very visible across his patch.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 25, 2017 22:48:41 GMT
The fact that UKIP keeps recycling its MEPs for most (every?) parliamentary byelection points to its small pool of talent. They may be the only people who can afford to take the time off for a by election: unlike Labour where the candidates are often white collar union officials who have rarely done a proper day's work in their lives, or the Conservatives where candidates are often business people, or the Lib Dems where the candidates are full time council or group leaders. I don't have a stereotype for the Greens. Bed wetting wankers? |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 25, 2017 22:54:07 GMT
They may be the only people who can afford to take the time off for a by election: unlike Labour where the candidates are often white collar union officials who have rarely done a proper day's work in their lives, or the Conservatives where candidates are often business people, or the Lib Dems where the candidates are full time council or group leaders. I don't have a stereotype for the Greens. Bed wetting wankers? That's not a stereotype, that's an insult. Then again, so are 'white collar union official', 'business people', and indeed 'full time group leader'. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 25, 2017 22:55:33 GMT
That's not a stereotype, that's an insult. Then again, so are 'white collar union official', 'business people', and indeed 'full time group leader'. It's an insult to me. But an accurate statement for many. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 25, 2017 23:19:17 GMT
That's not a stereotype, that's an insult. Then again, so are 'white collar union official', 'business people', and indeed 'full time group leader'. It's an insult to me. But an accurate statement for many. How do you know? Extensive field studies? Disappointing one-night stands? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 25, 2017 23:24:17 GMT
It's an insult to me. But an accurate statement for many. How do you know? Extensive field studies? Disappointing one-night stands? The stench. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 26, 2017 17:07:15 GMT
Average UKIP member is probably in their 70s so plenty of free time.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 26, 2017 17:40:43 GMT
Average UKIP member is probably in their 70s so plenty of free time. But the prostates. Think of the prostates! |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 26, 2017 18:43:14 GMT
Wasn't horrific, but Lib Dems did get a bit overexcited. It was actually fairly close to the agents prediction. There were plenty of people who were willing to give us a hearing but quite reasonably wanted to make sure Nuttall was didn't get in. I think the Crewe and Nantwich by-election in 2008 gives a good idea of how hard it is for the Lib Dems to prosper in a seat which is thought by everyone to be a 2 horse race between two other parties. (Losing 4% and getting a lot less than the national polls at the time).In that context increasing the vote in both Stoke and Copeland was a pretty good performance. In my opinion if the Lib Dems had started from second place they might have won either of these seats. And if the Tories had been second in Stoke they might have won too.. The only way to test this would be a by-election in a Leave voting seat where the Lib Dems start second. However it will be interesting to see how they do in Walton where no-one can imagine Labour losing. The Tories may have some hoped in Leigh now... |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 26, 2017 18:47:03 GMT
And if the Tories had been second in Stoke they might have won too.. The Tories may have some hoped in Leigh now... Completely delusional. |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 26, 2017 18:58:18 GMT
And if the Tories had been second in Stoke they might have won too.. The Tories may have some hoped in Leigh now... Completely deblusional. Well what the two by-elections have shown is that Labour are pretty unpopular and will lose a few % Remain votes to the Lib Dems, while the Tories can squeeze UKIP votes pretty hard at the moment.. That could put them in touching distance in Leigh especially if you think Burnham has a personal vote.. Outside chance I agree! |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 26, 2017 19:11:04 GMT
It was actually fairly close to the agents prediction. There were plenty of people who were willing to give us a hearing but quite reasonably wanted to make sure Nuttall was didn't get in. I think the Crewe and Nantwich by-election in 2008 gives a good idea of how hard it is for the Lib Dems to prosper in a seat which is thought by everyone to be a 2 horse race between two other parties. (Losing 4% and getting a lot less than the national polls at the time).In that context increasing the vote in both Stoke and Copeland was a pretty good performance. In my opinion if the Lib Dems had started from second place they might have won either of these seats. And if the Tories had been second in Stoke they might have won too.. The only way to test this would be a by-election in a Leave voting seat where the Lib Dems start second. However it will be interesting to see how they do in Walton where no-one can imagine Labour losing. The Tories may have some hoped in Leigh now... I don't think we could ever have won Copeland. It's just not a third party place. Nor do I think we could have won Stoke Central except by some freakish four way split. Both the next two likely by-elections are solid Labour holds. Very solid. They will get at least 70% of the vote in Walton and probably closer to 80%, the real question will be can anyone else save their deposit. I also don't see Leigh as competitive, although I expect the Tories to increase their vote into the mid-to-high twenties if they make an effort. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2017 19:45:16 GMT
Well what the two by-elections have shown is that Labour are pretty unpopular and will lose a few % Remain votes to the Lib Dems, while the Tories can squeeze UKIP votes pretty hard at the moment.. That could put them in touching distance in Leigh especially if you think Burnham has a personal vote.. Outside chance I agree! Have you ever been to Leigh? Do you know it's politics? No chance of a Conservative victory at all. |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 26, 2017 19:51:31 GMT
Well what the two by-elections have shown is that Labour are pretty unpopular and will lose a few % Remain votes to the Lib Dems, while the Tories can squeeze UKIP votes pretty hard at the moment.. That could put them in touching distance in Leigh especially if you think Burnham has a personal vote.. Outside chance I agree! Have you ever been to Leigh? Do you know it's politics? No chance of a Conservative victory at all. There's is one Conservative ward in the constituency. Lowton East. It's not monolithically safe for them. The rest are all Labour. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 26, 2017 20:03:00 GMT
There is not a prayer of the Tories doing anything in Leigh.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Feb 26, 2017 20:15:39 GMT
Well what the two by-elections have shown is that Labour are pretty unpopular and will lose a few % Remain votes to the Lib Dems, while the Tories can squeeze UKIP votes pretty hard at the moment.. That could put them in touching distance in Leigh especially if you think Burnham has a personal vote.. Outside chance I agree! Have you ever been to Leigh? Do you know it's politics? No chance of a Conservative victory at all. I've been to paradise, but I've never been to Leigh. |
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