Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2017 20:30:38 GMT
Paul Toussaint (careful with that surname pronunciation, folks) stood in this constituency at the general election. Here's a video from 9 April 2015
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Jan 13, 2017 20:37:19 GMT
My ancestors came from north Staffordshire (Leek, Cheddleton etc.) and as such, when we were children visiting relatives, we occasionally visited Gladstone Pottery Museum. I don't know which constituency it is in, and I don't otherwise remember anything about how grotty or desperate Stoke is generally. Anyway, I predict that the winning candidate will get fewer than 10,000 votes. The speculation which has already started about whether the main challenge is likely to be from UKIP or the Lib Dems, probably means that the non-Labour vote is likely to be split, and Labour will hold the seat even if it's only with 30% of the votes on a 30% turnout with only 6,000 votes in a snowstorm in February.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 13, 2017 20:51:50 GMT
My ancestors came from north Staffordshire (Leek, Cheddleton etc.) and as such, when we were children visiting relatives, we occasionally visited Gladstone Pottery Museum. I don't know which constituency it is in, and I don't otherwise remember anything about how grotty or desperate Stoke is generally. Anyway, I predict that the winning candidate will get fewer than 10,000 votes. The speculation which has already started about whether the main challenge is likely to be from UKIP or the Lib Dems, probably means that the non-Labour vote is likely to be split, and Labour will hold the seat even if it's only with 30% of the votes on a 30% turnout with only 6,000 votes in a snowstorm in February. Gladstone is in Stoke South. There are a few other reasons to visit us here, not least the Staffordshire Hoard. I'd be very surprised if there was a challenge from the Lib Dems, they have zero organisation here, their former councillors mainly becoming City Independents or tootling off to London. I'd guess on a result not too dissimilar from 2015, with UKIP maybe edging second by a slightly larger margin (based on local activity in the period since the GE and IIRC correctly they were second on first preferences in Stoke st the Police & Crime Commissioner election). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2017 21:48:58 GMT
Labour announce Stoke-on-Trent by-election candidate and reveal new campaign slogan. What could possibly go wrong?  Is that a man or a woman? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 13, 2017 21:54:44 GMT
Labour announce Stoke-on-Trent by-election candidate and reveal new campaign slogan. What could possibly go wrong? Is that a man or a woman? No. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2017 21:58:08 GMT
Well clearly the Stafford Borough has to come up to the city boundary - it just seems too far north! Upon assuming my untrammelled powers as government map-drawer, the solution is simple  Pitchfork sales boom in Newcastle! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2017 22:00:09 GMT
Labour announce Stoke-on-Trent by-election candidate and reveal new campaign slogan. What could possibly go wrong? Since he's got one hand growing out of his shoulder what's at the ends of those arms? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2017 22:19:47 GMT
My ancestors came from north Staffordshire (Leek, Cheddleton etc.) and as such, when we were children visiting relatives, we occasionally visited Gladstone Pottery Museum. I don't know which constituency it is in, and I don't otherwise remember anything about how grotty or desperate Stoke is generally. Anyway, I predict that the winning candidate will get fewer than 10,000 votes. The speculation which has already started about whether the main challenge is likely to be from UKIP or the Lib Dems, probably means that the non-Labour vote is likely to be split, and Labour will hold the seat even if it's only with 30% of the votes on a 30% turnout with only 6,000 votes in a snowstorm in February. I think you could well be right there John. The one thing I don't understand is why the bookies have the Tories as 4th favourite. Yes, UKIP came 2nd in 2015 - but only by 33 votes. In effect UKIP and the Tories were neck-and-neck in '15. BUT The Tories have 7 councillors in S-o-T; UKIP has 1. The Tories have hundreds of councillors within 50 miles; UKIP has ... a few dozen? The Tories have 300+ MPs they can direct to S-o-T; UKIP has one, who can't be directed on anything. UKIP polled just over 7,000 votes in 2015 - why should they gain voters at the byelection? Who - having not voted UKIP in '15 - is suddenly going to think "I must vote UKIP this time"? * Both parties will claim "only we can beat Labour here". I suspect the party which will win that argument is the one which can throw most resources into the constituency. And who would that be? * - If there's a sudden lurch toward a very soft brexit by the Govt then maybe; but don't see that happening. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 13, 2017 22:28:36 GMT
My ancestors came from north Staffordshire (Leek, Cheddleton etc.) and as such, when we were children visiting relatives, we occasionally visited Gladstone Pottery Museum. I don't know which constituency it is in, and I don't otherwise remember anything about how grotty or desperate Stoke is generally. Anyway, I predict that the winning candidate will get fewer than 10,000 votes. The speculation which has already started about whether the main challenge is likely to be from UKIP or the Lib Dems, probably means that the non-Labour vote is likely to be split, and Labour will hold the seat even if it's only with 30% of the votes on a 30% turnout with only 6,000 votes in a snowstorm in February. I think you could well be right there John. The one thing I don't understand is why the bookies have the Tories as 4th favourite. Yes, UKIP came 2nd in 2015 - but only by 33 votes. In effect UKIP and the Tories were neck-and-neck in '15. BUT The Tories have 7 councillors in S-o-T; UKIP has 1. The Tories have hundreds of councillors within 50 miles; UKIP has ... a few dozen? The Tories have 300+ MPs they can direct to S-o-T; UKIP has one, who can't be directed on anything. UKIP polled just over 7,000 votes in 2015 - why should they gain voters at the byelection? Who - having not voted UKIP in '15 - is suddenly going to think "I must vote UKIP this time"? * Both parties will claim "only we can beat Labour here". I suspect the party which will win that argument is the one which can throw most resources into the constituency. And who would that be? * - If there's a sudden lurch toward a very soft brexit by the Govt then maybe; but don't see that happening. The standard Labour playbook when defending by-elections is to "big up" the party in third place. |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Jan 13, 2017 22:52:44 GMT
I think there's a feeling that Ukip will do better in the by-election than in the council election because there is quite a large alt-right-ish voter bloc in the town (as shown by the high vote for the BNP in the not too distant past) some of whom vote Independent in local elections (even though the Independents are quite left-leaning really, with plenty of ex-Labour members including the council leader himself).
If there's an Independent candidate, well, who knows. It depends who he/she is. Most of the most popular Independent councillors are a bit on the old side. Randy Conteh is a popular figure, but maybe not physically up to the job after his brain ops.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 13, 2017 23:06:17 GMT
He could count, just thought five sounded better. If we are being really pedantic, isn't it made up of even more towns but six boroughs? Me duck. I aren't getting into that Shug.  Perhaps it could be re-named Shug Borough? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 13, 2017 23:07:22 GMT
Well, because they are about 4 miles from Stoke, 4 miles from Newcastle and 15 miles from Stafford! Stafford Borough itself comes right up to the City boundary; even we didn't realise until the mid-1990's boundary review that came in for the 1997 General Election that the Douglas Macmillan Hospice in Trentham is about 10 yards outside the City boundaries, but the former Wedgwood houses directly opposite were inside the City. Much of Trentham itself is on land formerly owned by the Dukes of Sutherland, and one of my first jobs when working for Rob Flello was joining the local residents association in getting a load of Tree Preservation Orders as they were part of Capability Brown's original landscaped garden. Another hint is quite a well publicised photograph of Lieutenant John F Kennedy accompanying his father and Sir Hugh Fraser, MP for Stafford and Stone, visiting US troops stationed on the grounds of the Gardens in the build-up to D-Day. Hugh Fraser was only elected MP for Stone in 1945 (Stafford & Stone from 1950). At that time all of Trentham was outside the city boundary and within the Stone constituency |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2017 23:10:35 GMT
He could count, just thought five sounded better. If we are being really pedantic, isn't it made up of even more towns but six boroughs? Me duck. I aren't getting into that Shug.  |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Jan 13, 2017 23:20:10 GMT
I'm quite proud of my accent (South Cheshire so not quite as strong as shown above!) and don't try to tone it down too much. But I have had to stop pronouncing "it" as "eet" since it causes too many southerners to roll about with laughter.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 13, 2017 23:21:25 GMT
Stafford Borough itself comes right up to the City boundary; even we didn't realise until the mid-1990's boundary review that came in for the 1997 General Election that the Douglas Macmillan Hospice in Trentham is about 10 yards outside the City boundaries, but the former Wedgwood houses directly opposite were inside the City. Much of Trentham itself is on land formerly owned by the Dukes of Sutherland, and one of my first jobs when working for Rob Flello was joining the local residents association in getting a load of Tree Preservation Orders as they were part of Capability Brown's original landscaped garden. Another hint is quite a well publicised photograph of Lieutenant John F Kennedy accompanying his father and Sir Hugh Fraser, MP for Stafford and Stone, visiting US troops stationed on the grounds of the Gardens in the build-up to D-Day. Hugh Fraser was only elected MP for Stone in 1945 (Stafford & Stone from 1950). At that time all of Trentham was outside the city boundary and within the Stone constituency Typo sorry, omitted "future" before MP; I'm not sure whether he was PPC (did they call them that?) at the time, but there was a close connection with the Kennedy family, which persists to the present apparently as Lady Antonia was taken ill in Washington when attending Ted's funeral. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 13, 2017 23:23:12 GMT
Labour announce Stoke-on-Trent by-election candidate and reveal new campaign slogan. What could possibly go wrong? Gormless, unkempt and toothless, with a pet hand on his shoulder! Every inch typical of Momentum. Hope he canvasses. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2017 23:23:13 GMT
Stoke station is rubbish, I can tell you that. A former colleague was on a week long course in Stoke. On return he said the station toilets were the most wondrous Victorian WC he'd ever seen, but that once you'd left them everything went downhill rapidly. Hmm. Or was it somewhere else in the Potteries? Surely one of the railway fanatics on here will know? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2017 23:25:55 GMT
I'm quite proud of my accent (South Cheshire so not quite as strong as shown above!) and don't try to tone it down too much. But I have had to stop pronouncing "it" as "eet" since it causes too many southerners to roll about with laughter. Where are you from? |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2017 23:35:51 GMT
I'm quite proud of my accent (South Cheshire so not quite as strong as shown above!) and don't try to tone it down too much. But I have had to stop pronouncing "it" as "eet" since it causes too many southerners to roll about with laughter.Mannerless oafs. |
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rocky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 122 
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Post by rocky on Jan 13, 2017 23:44:18 GMT
I think you could well be right there John. The one thing I don't understand is why the bookies have the Tories as 4th favourite. Yes, UKIP came 2nd in 2015 - but only by 33 votes. In effect UKIP and the Tories were neck-and-neck in '15. BUT The Tories have 7 councillors in S-o-T; UKIP has 1. The Tories have hundreds of councillors within 50 miles; UKIP has ... a few dozen? The Tories have 300+ MPs they can direct to S-o-T; UKIP has one, who can't be directed on anything. UKIP polled just over 7,000 votes in 2015 - why should they gain voters at the byelection? Who - having not voted UKIP in '15 - is suddenly going to think "I must vote UKIP this time"? * Both parties will claim "only we can beat Labour here". I suspect the party which will win that argument is the one which can throw most resources into the constituency. And who would that be? * - If there's a sudden lurch toward a very soft brexit by the Govt then maybe; but don't see that happening. The standard Labour playbook when defending by-elections is to "big up" the party in third place. Well that could work out well then .... |
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