Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2017 11:46:57 GMT
I'm still not persuaded that 'being a leave voter' is acting as a major mover of party preference. This may change in time if the Brexit process stalls or is perceived to not be delivering on the wishes of leave voters, but for now it is hardly showing up.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2017 11:49:14 GMT
Everyone who says Tristram Hunt didn't fit Stoke Central should note that his Labour predecessors were an Old Etonian playwright, a university lecturer, and a Czech-Jewish doctor. And Stoke South MPs included a Cambridge graduate TV producer.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 11:54:48 GMT
Everyone who says Tristram Hunt didn't fit Stoke Central should note that his Labour predecessors were an Old Etonian playwright, a university lecturer, and a Czech-Jewish doctor. And Stoke South MPs included a Cambridge graduate TV producer. Yeah but leaving aside the argument that "things were different then" its the manner of his getting the seat that rankled with many (and still does) |
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right
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Post by right on Jan 13, 2017 12:04:03 GMT
I know it's probably not co-ordinated, and it's not even a pattern yet, but it feels like death by a thousand cuts with Labour MPs in working class Leave voting seats resigning and handing the leadership lose-able by-elections. (I'm not counting Burnham, it's just Reed and Hunt so far). Neither of whom are terribly representative of even "core group hostile" MPs. And if Labour *don't* lose these by-elections, what then? Not a bad point at all, as this is the probable outcome after all the by-election excitement. In fact the excitement at UKIP's chances in both these seats when UKIP is falling apart and has a record of not quite winning by-elections seems to be helpful to Corbyn in the short term. |
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right
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Post by right on Jan 13, 2017 12:04:40 GMT
Everyone who says Tristram Hunt didn't fit Stoke Central should note that his Labour predecessors were an Old Etonian playwright, a university lecturer, and a Czech-Jewish doctor. And Stoke South MPs included a Cambridge graduate TV producer. Yeah but leaving aside the argument that "things were different then" its the manner of his getting the seat that rankled with many (and still does) What's the balance of power in the CLP? |
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right
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Post by right on Jan 13, 2017 12:06:30 GMT
I'm still not persuaded that 'being a leave voter' is acting as a major mover of party preference. This may change in time if the Brexit process stalls or is perceived to not be delivering on the wishes of leave voters, but for now it is hardly showing up. True. Leave voting was really my shorthand for the "working class tribal Labour vote in the North and Midlands that is not a good cultural fit for Corbyn or New Labour". |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 13, 2017 12:10:45 GMT
Are there any Labour seats in England with a lower total vote at the last election? About 12,000 IIRC.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2017 12:12:32 GMT
PS two words: "Chris Williamson"
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jan 13, 2017 12:19:25 GMT
Are there any Labour seats in England with a lower total vote at the last election? About 12,000 IIRC. 12,220. It's pretty dire, isn't it. In other seats that's a typical 3rd place vote-count! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 12:22:27 GMT
PS two words: "Chris Williamson" What, he's going to try for this selection and lose it as well? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 13, 2017 12:24:58 GMT
This seat does of course have a non-negligible Asian population which to some extent mitigates against a huge swing away from Labour and/or towards UKIP. I don't know what the overall figure is for the constituency - it's not massive, but it's very substantial in the Hanley area in particular and not insignificant in Stoke itself (but very low in the council estates in the East of the constituency). Not surprisingly, the Hanley area is the strongest part of the seat for Labour nowadays.
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Post by justin124 on Jan 13, 2017 12:30:45 GMT
That only arises if the Boundary Changes are approved in October 2018. I still expect the boundary changes to be approved without fuss, once the Boundary Commission's process is complete. However their Stoke proposals were a bit perverse, and I also expect that Kidsgrove will return to Stoke North, allowing this seat to remain substantially the same (it would move southwards, with the rest of Stoke South linked with Stone), so it should attract good candidates.
Approved without fuss? The Opposistion parties are not going to simply wave through changes which are clearly to their detriment. Moreover there are Tory MPs strongly opposed to the reduction in numbers from 650 to 600. Very few rebels are required to scupper the proposals. A senior Tory has expressed the view that there is a 60% probability of the changes NOT happening.
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Post by markgoodair on Jan 13, 2017 12:32:42 GMT
Me too. They always go down well. There's the White Star and the Bull's Head that I know of but I have been in neither Been in both.There is also the Glebe near the train station which is owned by Joules Brewery . |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2017 12:33:59 GMT
You say that... Lib Dems did come second here in 2005 and 2010, so i'm not sure how hard they'll go for this one. I'm sure there will be plenty of (mis)information for the electorate to read regardless! After the result in Sunderland yesterday I wouldn't be too sanguine I thought both those thoughts as soon as I posted. To be honest, I thought them before, I still posted out of hope! Times change. Even Guido (that well-known Lib Dem backer  ) is referring to this as a 4-way scrap. (To be fair, he doesn't see the Lib Dems as potential winners but as significant in peeling off votes from ... somewhere ...) With Independent(s) piling in we could have a winner with a low share of the vote potentially. OR it could quickly become clear that it's a Labour v Somebody Else fight, in which case 3rd and 4th placed parties would suffer the traditional byelection squeeze. Still, it'll be fun to have a local (but not too local) byelection. Central Stoke is nice in February. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 13, 2017 12:35:20 GMT
My first reactions here are
1) Good! Another juicy by-election.
2) Labour could lose this.
3) Hunt is an MP I really like; well educated, personable, moderate, non-tribal, erudite and cultivated. Rare qualities.
4) This is a tailor-made for UKIP.
5) This is Leave country again.
5) But! Big but! The 2015 result shows UKIP-Conservatives halving the opposition vote! Better with one much weaker.
6) Knowing Stoke, would think Conservatives will always struggle to attain an actual win.
7) LDs on present form could fancy a major advance as the Remain candidate with Leave split three ways.
Conclusion. This is a UKIP major chance and if no high profile local perhaps Nuttall should carry the torch himself on a vigorous total hard Brexit, anti-Corbyn, EVEL, English Parliament, anti-Green and anti-Foreign Aid platform and hope for a piss poor Conservative to be laid into with as much will as we lay into Labour. We need an anti-Corbyn, anti-Labour Crusade here, listing all the ills of the last three decades and lay them at their door. A few punchy slogans and posters slammed day-after-day-after-day.
In a by-election, Stoke might quite like the idea of giving labour and Conservatives a bloody nose and we just have to give them that opportunity starting today.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 13, 2017 12:36:14 GMT
This seat does of course have a non-negligible Asian population which to some extent mitigates against a huge swing away from Labour and/or towards UKIP. I don't know what the overall figure is for the constituency - it's not massive, but it's very substantial in the Hanley area in particular and not insignificant in Stoke itself (but very low in the council estates in the East of the constituency). Not surprisingly, the Hanley area is the strongest part of the seat for Labour nowadays. The population wsa 85% white in 2011 but of course when it comes to those who actually bother to vote the percentage is probably still above 90%. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2017 12:37:03 GMT
Insert obligatory speculation about David Miliband / Ed Balls / Tony Blair here  Tony Blair would be a perfect fit in Cobridge. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 13, 2017 12:48:14 GMT
This seat does of course have a non-negligible Asian population which to some extent mitigates against a huge swing away from Labour and/or towards UKIP. I don't know what the overall figure is for the constituency - it's not massive, but it's very substantial in the Hanley area in particular and not insignificant in Stoke itself (but very low in the council estates in the East of the constituency). Not surprisingly, the Hanley area is the strongest part of the seat for Labour nowadays. Eturia & Hanley ward is 21% Pakistani, Hanley Park & Shelton is 15.2% Pakistani and 10% Indian. Joiner's Square is about 8% Pakistani. Constituency overall is 4.5% Pakistani and 1.8% Indian. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2017 13:01:06 GMT
Labour may be better off without an MP who believes it is OK to cross an authorised picket. I hold him in contempt for that.  |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 13, 2017 13:01:38 GMT
Nuttall shouldn't stand IMO - UKIP are not in contention for the seat and are losing votes everywhere, whoever the candidate is, and the inevitable heavy defeat will damage Nuttall and the party more if he is the candidate. Nuttall coming 3rd or even 4th would be a disaster.
There are two possible outcomes here - Labour hold (probably) and Lib Dem gain.
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) is referring to this as a 4-way scrap. (To be fair, he doesn't see the Lib Dems as potential winners but as significant in peeling off votes from ... somewhere ...)
