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Post by Merseymike on Jan 13, 2017 10:31:35 GMT
I said a while back that there would be a lot of MP's standing down - most will be at the next election.
Potential for a lot of independent candidates, given the egos of many Stoke councillors.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 13, 2017 10:31:53 GMT
It could be worse for them. The Lib Dems could be competitive there, which would quintuple the pointless tat through their letterboxes! You say that... Lib Dems did come second here in 2005 and 2010, so i'm not sure how hard they'll go for this one. I'm sure there will be plenty of (mis)information for the electorate to read regardless! It could be worse for them. The Lib Dems could be competitive there, which would quintuple the pointless tat through their letterboxes! After the result in Sunderland yesterday I wouldn't be too sanguine I thought both those thoughts as soon as I posted. To be honest, I thought them before, I still posted out of hope! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 13, 2017 11:01:06 GMT
It could be worse for them. The Lib Dems could be competitive there, which would quintuple the pointless tat through their letterboxes! Good point. I might go there in the hope of landing in a Titanic pub. I like Titanic beers Me too. They always go down well. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jan 13, 2017 11:03:02 GMT
The Lib Dems have gone from 50/1 to 8/1 with Ladbrokes in the last 40 minutes.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 13, 2017 11:06:43 GMT
The Lib Dems have gone from 50/1 to 8/1 with Ladbrokes in the last 40 minutes. And now down to 6/1 in the last 3 mninutes. UKIP at 11/4 |
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Post by marksenior on Jan 13, 2017 11:09:05 GMT
Ladbrokes opening odds were Lib Dems 50/1 .After a flood of bets they are now 6/1 . Cant see it myself .
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 13, 2017 11:11:53 GMT
Renamed to Stoke South, rather. That only arises if the Boundary Changes are approved in October 2018. I still expect the boundary changes to be approved without fuss, once the Boundary Commission's process is complete. However their Stoke proposals were a bit perverse, and I also expect that Kidsgrove will return to Stoke North, allowing this seat to remain substantially the same (it would move southwards, with the rest of Stoke South linked with Stone), so it should attract good candidates.
Merseymike has consistently said that he expects many Labour MPs to stand down at the next election, which I agree with, and given that good jobs for former MPs don't grow on trees, we can expect a number of others to leave before the next General Election, when a good opportunity arises.
Stoke is a tad unusual (to say the least) and I would be less confident of Labour holding it, than of Copeland, although I suspect that it will be difficult for any party to get a bandwagon rolling, which would lead to a Labour hold on a very low percentage share of the vote, on a very low turnout. I'd also guess that Labour will try and hold both by-elections simultaneously.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 13, 2017 11:12:28 GMT
Ladbrokes opening odds were Lib Dems 50/1 .After a flood of bets they are now 6/1 . Cant see it myself . No I can't but I'd have taken those odds and obviously lots of people did. The bookies would be foolish to expose themselves given how unpredictable the electorate are proving. I've pretty much given up on political betting these days but wish I'd seen and taken the 50/1. Certainly won't bother backing UKIP on those odds |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 11:13:27 GMT
I fear this could be a more likely loss for Labour than Copeland. The Tory-UKIP vote was equally split in 2015, so a shift in votes from one to the other plus peeling off some who voted for Hunt in 2015 could result in a gain for one of them. Well that does seem to presume that Hunt had a significant personal factor. There is some actual evidence he was a drag on the Labour vote rather than the opposite. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2017 11:17:57 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 13, 2017 11:19:07 GMT
Ladbrokes opening odds were Lib Dems 50/1 .After a flood of bets they are now 6/1 . Cant see it myself . It'll be as a result of a few people putting a few quid on it. Plus the publicity that Ladbrokes will get from this odds cut will do them wonders. Back in 2010 I got sight of an embargoed poll that put the Lib Dems in the high twenty's. I put £10 on a seat that I had some inside knowledge on the ground at 20/1. The odds were immediately cut to 10/1. (Labour held the seat and in the 2015 election we lost our deposit) |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 13, 2017 11:19:25 GMT
Insert obligatory speculation about David Miliband / Ed Balls / Tony Blair here  |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Jan 13, 2017 11:20:50 GMT
I fear this could be a more likely loss for Labour than Copeland. The Tory-UKIP vote was equally split in 2015, so a shift in votes from one to the other plus peeling off some who voted for Hunt in 2015 could result in a gain for one of them. Well that does seem to presume that Hunt had a significant personal factor. There is some actual evidence he was a drag on the Labour vote rather than the opposite. I wasn't trying to suggest that. I will edit accordingly. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 11:21:28 GMT
Possible bid for the nomination from him? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2017 11:27:14 GMT
Going to be a lot of pressure on Paul Nuttall to stand for UKIP. Stoke and Liverpool have a lot in common (listen to the accent).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 11:28:35 GMT
Thought he was already pencilled in for Leigh?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2017 11:33:21 GMT
Stoke Central is better territory.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Jan 13, 2017 11:38:38 GMT
I said a while back that there would be a lot of MP's standing down - most will be at the next election. Potential for a lot of independent candidates, given the egos of many Stoke councillors. I know it's probably not co-ordinated, and it's not even a pattern yet, but it feels like death by a thousand cuts with Labour MPs in working class Leave voting seats resigning and handing the leadership lose-able by-elections. (I'm not counting Burnham, it's just Reed and Hunt so far). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 13, 2017 11:41:43 GMT
Yes I think Nuttall should go for this
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 11:43:20 GMT
I said a while back that there would be a lot of MP's standing down - most will be at the next election. Potential for a lot of independent candidates, given the egos of many Stoke councillors. I know it's probably not co-ordinated, and it's not even a pattern yet, but it feels like death by a thousand cuts with Labour MPs in working class Leave voting seats resigning and handing the leadership lose-able by-elections. (I'm not counting Burnham, it's just Reed and Hunt so far). Neither of whom are terribly representative of even "core group hostile" MPs. And if Labour *don't* lose these by-elections, what then? |
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