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Post by justin124 on Jan 22, 2017 11:21:19 GMT
I disagree with the idea that Nutall's candidature makes a significant difference. Most people have not heard of him - unlike Farage. They will know who he is by polling day, but the short campaign gives him a very limited opportunity to sway voting intentions. But I really don't think that Nutall being the 'Leader' will add to his support. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 22, 2017 11:23:52 GMT
Question to forum members: which of the two parliamentary seats do you think is most likely to change hands on 23rd February?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 22, 2017 11:24:13 GMT
One person in this poll is very optimistic.  Or drunk. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 22, 2017 11:24:14 GMT
Copeland
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2017 11:30:35 GMT
They will know who he is by polling day, but the short campaign gives him a very limited opportunity to sway voting intentions. But I really don't think that Nutall being the 'Leader' will add to his support. It will focus media attention on the UKIP challenge, which cannot be other than helpful. Whether it will be helpful enough is another matter. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2017 11:43:52 GMT
Let me suggest that under certain circumstances we could see a re-run of 2015 here, but with Labour and UKIP paired just a handful of votes apart and the Conservatives winning about 800 ahead of both on a reduced poll. The scenario being a squeeze on all other parties. A determination by Labour to hold and to hit hard at UKIP and on NHS. That fails to capture enough new votes. A determination by the Conservatives to hold position and to and to ensure UKIP do not win. This garners some squeeze, some Labour Leavers and a good section of former UKIP. UKIP have their leader and throw everything they can into the mix. They take some from the squeeze, a few from the Conservatives, but more from Labour. Overall Labour share drops a bit, UKIP sees a lot of churn but not much greater share. The Conservatives squeeze through the middle with enough turnout from 2015 retained and win against expectation of all parties. I really don't see LDs being anywhere.
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Post by Right Leaning on Jan 22, 2017 11:53:02 GMT
Surely 2016 has taught us to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't put it past Carlton's prediction being right.
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Post by justin124 on Jan 22, 2017 12:02:40 GMT
The Tories will do well to poll 20% in Stoke.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 22, 2017 12:12:02 GMT
Surely 2016 has taught us to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't put it past Carlton's prediction being right. In current circumstances, "the unexpected" for many could be Labour holding both seats easily. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 22, 2017 13:15:45 GMT
Surely 2016 has taught us to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't put it past Carlton's prediction being right. ... Alright, alright, you win. New poll added (the running total of the old one was Lab hold 28, UKIP gain 8, LD gain 6). |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2017 13:29:11 GMT
Surely 2016 has taught us to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't put it past Carlton's prediction being right. ... Alright, alright, you win. New poll added (the running total of the old one was Lab hold 28, UKIP gain 8, LD gain 6). You are a very model of a responsive and reasonable man Swan. thank you. I have voted. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 22, 2017 13:42:52 GMT
Thanks for the feedback on Scouse accents in Stoke!
Thing about Nuttall is that the media love him so voters may well hear him talk.. He was just on R4 for example (ok, not many people will hear that!) Somehow they got away with interviewing him as a declared candidate without interviewing any others Lib Dems have a candidate for example). Presumably because the Writ has not been moved yet...
He is also widely available on YouTube saying he wants more privatisation of the NHS. I feel sure Labour will be providing helpful links to that...
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 22, 2017 13:55:34 GMT
I do think the view that voters form of Nuttall is important. In the referendum people voted much more enthusiastically here than in the GE. If Nuttall can harness that enthusiasm he could win. If people think he is a bit of a Pr*t they will stay at home..
Unlike Carlton I see the Tories being squeezed a bit, but not catastrophically. Maybe to 18%. I agree the Lib Dems will not do much but I think they have the right candidate to pick up a few strongly Remain Labour voters who may well have liked Tristram...That depends on the Labour candidate but I am going to assume they will not be talking about Brexit much other than to say they will vote for Article 50 and "the people have spoken" So I reckon something like:
Lab 40
UKIP 30
Tory 18
LD 10
Rest 2
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Post by Ben Walker on Jan 22, 2017 14:15:58 GMT
Thanks for the feedback on Scouse accents in Stoke! Thing about Nuttall is that the media love him so voters may well hear him talk.. He was just on R4 for example (ok, not many people will hear that!) Somehow they got away with interviewing him as a declared candidate without interviewing any others Lib Dems have a candidate for example). Presumably because the Writ has not been moved yet... He is also widely available on YouTube saying he wants more privatisation of the NHS. I feel sure Labour will be providing helpful links to that...Issue is the voters UKIP is courting don't give as much of a toss as about the NHS as they do about immigration and Brexit. Repeating the lines Miliband conjured is, essentially, just deflecting. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2017 16:19:04 GMT
Mr. Nuttall's main problem in traditional Labour areas is that his pretence of being a traditional Labour man doesn't hold, as he was a Tory, then a UKIP member. Whilst I am cringing at the constant references to the NHS by Labour spokesmen for both campaigns (and I work in the RBH, so know the nightmares), Paul Nuttall's NHS views are beyond the pale for most people and a good Labour candidate could take him apart.
On the Scouse/Stoke accent issue, most of the Stoke people I know feel a greater affinity to Manchester than Liverpool. Mind you, when I left Manchester for the first time, the people of Burnley thought I was a Scouser.....not a happy mistake!
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 22, 2017 16:29:15 GMT
I do think the view that voters form of Nuttall is important. In the referendum people voted much more enthusiastically here than in the GE. Which may be UKIP's problem. "We've had our say. We're leaving. May's not backtracked. Why bother..." |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 22, 2017 16:36:28 GMT
Thanks for the feedback on Scouse accents in Stoke! Thing about Nuttall is that the media love him so voters may well hear him talk.. He was just on R4 for example (ok, not many people will hear that!) Somehow they got away with interviewing him as a declared candidate without interviewing any others Lib Dems have a candidate for example). Presumably because the Writ has not been moved yet... He is also widely available on YouTube saying he wants more privatisation of the NHS. I feel sure Labour will be providing helpful links to that...Issue is the voters UKIP is courting don't give as much of a toss as about the NHS as they do about immigration and Brexit. Repeating the lines Miliband conjured is, essentially, just deflecting. Yes, but Nuttall needs MORE UKIP voters to win. Maybe they are lurking among the 2015 non-voters, maybe not! But I would say he needs to convince people who voted Labour in 2015 to vote UKIP, and so far in this Parliament we have seen precious little sign of that. (Lots of Labour supporters moved to UKIP in 2015, but that was almost matched by Lib Dem voters changing to Labour. Instead we have seen loss of UKIP voters to the Tories, probably because some people have concluded the Tories are now basically UKIP in disguise... |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jan 22, 2017 17:09:00 GMT
Issue is the voters UKIP is courting don't give as much of a toss as about the NHS as they do about immigration and Brexit. Repeating the lines Miliband conjured is, essentially, just deflecting. Yes, but Nuttall needs MORE UKIP voters to win. Maybe they are lurking among the 2015 non-voters, maybe not! But I would say he needs to convince people who voted Labour in 2015 to vote UKIP, and so far in this Parliament we have seen precious little sign of that. (Lots of Labour supporters moved to UKIP in 2015, but that was almost matched by Lib Dem voters changing to Labour. Instead we have seen loss of UKIP voters to the Tories, probably because some people have concluded the Tories are now basically UKIP in disguise... Historically one party seats can be very odd in by-elections as third party voters will lend their votes to get the incumbents out if there is a clear challenger. Even if a UKIP voter is going over to the Tories they will switch back to UKIP if they think they can win it. I don't think UKIP have quite got the by-election machine for this, but I would be more worried about this than about losing Copeland to the Tories. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 22, 2017 17:32:16 GMT
Nuttall is not particularly well liked here either - the #badbootlemeff tag was the idea of someone I know in Bootle!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 22, 2017 19:46:05 GMT
Surely 2016 has taught us to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't put it past Carlton's prediction being right. ... Alright, alright, you win. New poll added (the running total of the old one was Lab hold 28, UKIP gain 8, LD gain 6). I had voted LD gain, slightly tongue in cheek, because I think Labour are temporarily in the shit, they don't actually have that great a majority to start with, while I feel UKIP have shown in a number of local elections that they have failed to capitalise on Labour's problems. I don't buy the idea that Nuttall as a high profile candidate will give them a boost because being the best candidate for the UKIP leadership does not equate to being a high calibre candidate. FWIW the LD candidate as a local bloke and a hospital consultant is, on paper, a lot better. But if I was putting money on it I'd quite fancy the Tories for this one. I wonder if they'll give it as big a push as they are for Copeland? If not, why not? |
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