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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 22, 2017 19:48:27 GMT
Historically one party seats can be very odd in by-elections as third party voters will lend their votes to get the incumbents out if there is a clear challenger. Even if a UKIP voter is going over to the Tories they will switch back to UKIP if they think they can win it. I don't think UKIP have quite got the by-election machine for this, but I would be more worried about this than about losing Copeland to the Tories. Yes. Getting into pole position as challenger is key. If no front runner emerges Labour should hold. If one does then all bets are off IMO. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 22, 2017 19:53:34 GMT
Historically one party seats can be very odd in by-elections as third party voters will lend their votes to get the incumbents out if there is a clear challenger. Even if a UKIP voter is going over to the Tories they will switch back to UKIP if they think they can win it. I don't think UKIP have quite got the by-election machine for this, but I would be more worried about this than about losing Copeland to the Tories. Yes. Getting into pole position as challenger is key. If no front runner emerges Labour should hold. If one does then all bets are off IMO. An opinion poll (however dodgy) might influence this hugely. Something like 40 - 31 - 20 - 9 would be manna to the 2nd placed party. 40 - 22 - 22 - 16 would be manna to Labour! (Assuming, in both cases, Labour in first place.) |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 22, 2017 20:17:00 GMT
I think its likely that Labour will win this By-election, I think the main reason that Paul Nuttall is running is to get a bit more name recognition and publicity and put UKIP back on the map so to speak.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 22, 2017 20:24:00 GMT
Surely 2016 has taught us to expect the unexpected. I wouldn't put it past Carlton's prediction being right. In current circumstances, "the unexpected" for many could be Labour holding both seats easily. 5/2 on that scenario currently on Ladbrokes (well it doesn't specify 'easily', just to hold both) - that seems like a good value bet to me |
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right
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Post by right on Jan 22, 2017 20:24:40 GMT
... Alright, alright, you win. New poll added (the running total of the old one was Lab hold 28, UKIP gain 8, LD gain 6). I had voted LD gain, slightly tongue in cheek, because I think Labour are temporarily in the shit, they don't actually have that great a majority to start with, while I feel UKIP have shown in a number of local elections that they have failed to capitalise on Labour's problems. I don't buy the idea that Nuttall as a high profile candidate will give them a boost because being the best candidate for the UKIP leadership does not equate to being a high calibre candidate. FWIW the LD candidate as a local bloke and a hospital consultant is, on paper, a lot better. But if I was putting money on it I'd quite fancy the Tories for this one. I wonder if they'll give it as big a push as they are for Copeland? If not, why not? Why not? Third place, no chance and another by-election. If May gets a by-election win in Copeland then she will have a lot of election winning mystique in the bank. Stoke is secondary for the Tories. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jan 22, 2017 20:37:58 GMT
Have the Tories actually won a seat with 'Central' in the name since the unlikely success in Newcastle in 1983?
'Central' seats are *always* Labour. While 'Mid' seats are always Tory.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 22, 2017 20:39:48 GMT
They won Edinburgh Central in 1983, and in 2016 for the Scottish Parliament.
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 22, 2017 21:01:12 GMT
Have the Tories actually won a seat with 'Central' in the name since the unlikely success in Newcastle in 1983? 'Central' seats are *always* Labour. While 'Mid' seats are always Tory. There's no London Central constituency, but you've reminded me of Alan Clark pointing out in 1997 during a debate on the Governance of London that he was one of the very few Conservative MPs to represent an inner city constituency (Peter Brooke being the other). hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1997/jun/06/governance-of-london-1#S6CV0295P0_19970606_HOC_136 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 22, 2017 21:15:43 GMT
Have the Tories actually won a seat with 'Central' in the name since the unlikely success in Newcastle in 1983? 'Central' seats are *always* Labour. While 'Mid' seats are always Tory. Suffolk Central [& Ipswich North], Devon Central |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 22, 2017 21:16:41 GMT
Also Cardiff Central in 1987
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 22, 2017 22:09:30 GMT
Are the 6 people who've voted for a LD gain aware they were on 4% last time? Just askin'...
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jan 22, 2017 22:28:17 GMT
Are the 6 people who've voted for a LD gain aware they were on 4% last time? Just askin'... I bet they were asking the same questions in the local bye-election in Sunderland! |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 22, 2017 22:31:45 GMT
Are the 6 people who've voted for a LD gain aware they were on 4% last time? Just askin'... I bet they were asking the same questions in the local bye-election in Sunderland! Making any sort of comparison between the Sunderland local by-election and a parliamentary by-election is a mistake IMO because when you have such a small electorate as in Sunderland there is much more potential for volatility and big swings. The bigger the electorate is the less volatility you have generally speaking. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 22, 2017 22:34:03 GMT
Why not? Third place, no chance and another by-election. If May gets a by-election win in Copeland then she will have a lot of election winning mystique in the bank. Stoke is secondary for the Tories. To all intents it was joint second rather than third but otherwise that makes a lot of sense. Might leave us with a clear run (tongue-in-cheek smiley). I suppose there's also the case that winning Copeland will allow her to point and laugh at Jeremy Corbyn for some time whereas winning both might curtail that pleasure. |
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Post by thirdchill on Jan 22, 2017 22:35:23 GMT
Are the 6 people who've voted for a LD gain aware they were on 4% last time? Just askin'... They have made greater leaps before (e.g. Bermondsey). If the LD's were doing what they did in Witney then there would be a strong case for them leapfrogging to second place and pushing themselves as the main opponent in a 'two horse race'. However I don't see much evidence of this in Stoke at present. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 22, 2017 22:42:11 GMT
Are the 6 people who've voted for a LD gain aware they were on 4% last time? Just askin'... 4% last time during the worst LD meltdown since before WW2.* 2nd place with 21.7% the time before that. And last time about 7% voted for the independent and another 3.6% for the Greens, both susceptible to squeezing if they stand (which so far they haven't). Get to about 20% and we are on for getting into 2nd place, at which point it becomes interesting. OK, I know these are Mark Senior levels of optimism, but I think it is less crazy than you suggest. Still very very unlikely, (and I am not one of the six) but we live in interesting times. * I made that up. But you know what I mean. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 22, 2017 22:51:54 GMT
On checking those figures, I note that UKIP went from 4% in 2010 to 22.7% in 2015, just squeezing past the Tories for second place.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 22, 2017 22:55:27 GMT
I think its likely that Labour will win this By-election, I think the main reason that Paul Nuttall is running is to get a bit more name recognition and publicity and put UKIP back on the map so to speak. It will be interesting to see if UKIP spend £99k on this by-election. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 23, 2017 10:40:16 GMT
Tristram Hunt is now Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds.
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right
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Post by right on Jan 23, 2017 11:09:08 GMT
It will be interesting to see if UKIP spend £99k on this by-election. I heard Paul Nuttal on Today programme talking out of his arse about Brexit again. Being in the single market prevents us from signing third party trade deals apparently. Like the Iceland-China trade deal? |
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