The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2016 13:31:53 GMT
Well, I suppose the honour of starting this one should belong to me  |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 21, 2016 13:36:53 GMT
Well, I suppose the honour of starting this one should belong to me You've just been dumped on in my opinion. You going to run for it Bish? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2016 13:39:04 GMT
NO CHANCE  Candidate selection will be pretty crucial obviously, but one thing the (quite large and active) local party has is a few people who could fill the role. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 21, 2016 13:41:34 GMT
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Post by politicalmatrix on Dec 21, 2016 13:46:13 GMT
Depends how many UKIP voters the Conservatives regain (or how many Labour lose to them) as to what the result of the by-election will be you'd suspect.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 21, 2016 13:51:06 GMT
Can't see Jeremy Corbyn and his anti-nuclear views going down too well in this seat.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2016 13:52:41 GMT
Depends how many UKIP voters the Conservatives regain (or how many Labour lose to them) as to what the result of the by-election will be you'd suspect. I would assume that UKIP voters tend to be more inclined towards voting Conservative over Labour, but that varies depending on the constituency. Actually, there is some evidence they hurt Labour a bit more than the Tories here last year. |
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 21, 2016 14:06:31 GMT
There will inevitably be much talk of the Conservatives winning this, and how this probably isn't a great area for Corbyn, and what it would mean for him if Labour lose.
However, as long as they select a decent candidate I can't see any result other than Labour hold here, whatever the polls say they haven't actually done that badly in elections under Corbyn, and are up against a mid term government whose Brexit difficulties will only increase between now and the by election.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 21, 2016 14:07:34 GMT
I'm guessing the local Labour Party are privately hoping Jeremy Corbyn stays well away for the duration of the campaign.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 21, 2016 14:26:43 GMT
A few close calls but this one has eluded us for over 80 years and it's a very polarised seat. best hope is for UKIP to take some of the Labour voters who would never vote Tory and obviously a bit of differential turnout
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 21, 2016 14:27:30 GMT
I'm guessing the local Labour Party are privately hoping Jeremy Corbyn stays well away for the duration of the campaign. I'm sure one local Labour member will welcome him with open arms |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 21, 2016 14:33:03 GMT
A few close calls but this one has eluded us for over 80 years and it's a very polarised seat. best hope is for UKIP to take some of the Labour voters who would never vote Tory and obviously a bit of differential turnout Did I miss you defecting to the Tories? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 21, 2016 14:37:19 GMT
A few close calls but this one has eluded us for over 80 years and it's a very polarised seat. best hope is for UKIP to take some of the Labour voters who would never vote Tory and obviously a bit of differential turnout Did I miss you defecting to the Tories? No but I've always been a member of the Carlton school (not to be confused with the Carlton club). Naturally I would want to see Labour defeated here and I identify as part of the broad right. Of course on a couple of occasions when the Conservatives did come close (1983 and 1987), they were very much 'us' from my point of view |
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Post by marksenior on Dec 21, 2016 14:44:15 GMT
The key to this by election will be Mike Starkie , the Independent elected Mayor . Will he stand as an Independent or for a major party or endorse one of the major party candidates , AFAIK he is a truly Independent local business man with no strong political leanings .
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Post by connorw on Dec 21, 2016 14:51:29 GMT
Corbyn says Labour is on an election footing so I'm guessing he will be targeting a swing of over 10%...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2016 15:00:06 GMT
Can't see Jeremy Corbyn and his anti-nuclear views going down too well in this seat. Nuclear power is the big issue here rather than nuclear weapons (though the constituency does have some VSEL employees) Whatever the personal opinions of the current leader, Labour is more in favour of the former than the latter and indeed less opposed than back in the 1980s. (when we still held this seat despite relentless Tory campaigning - and at times scaremongering - on the issue) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2016 18:34:35 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2016 18:39:58 GMT
I'm guessing the local Labour Party are privately hoping Jeremy Corbyn stays well away for the duration of the campaign. I'm sure one local Labour member will welcome him with open arms Ho ho very amusing (though there are actually some genuine Corbynistas in these parts) |
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Post by David Ashforth on Dec 21, 2016 18:52:53 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2016 18:58:12 GMT
Wonder what his actual thoughts were! |
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