Copeland

[Deleted]

Dec 21, 2016 18:39:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 21, 2016 14:27:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm sure one local Labour member will welcome him with open arms

Ho ho very amusing (though there are actually some genuine Corbynistas in these parts)

Much chance of any of them being selected?

[Sharon]

So he'll step down at the end of January, by the looks of things.

[right]

Dec 21, 2016 13:52:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 21, 2016 13:49:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I would assume that UKIP voters tend to be more inclined towards voting Conservative over Labour, but that varies depending on the constituency. 

Actually, there is some evidence they hurt Labour a bit more than the Tories here last year.

What should scare you is if UKIP is seen as a way (or is it weigh) station for elderly white working class voters before they come over to the Tories.  I doubt this will happen  in a mid term by-election but May is clearly more attractive to these voters than posh and liberal Cameron and I doubt Corbyn will win many back from UKIP.

UKIP's vote seems very squeezable if they are widely seen to be unable to win this, but are they Labour defectors or Tory defectors here?

[The Bishop]

The upside of things is that Labour "only" need to modestly increase their share from the GE to become effectively unbeatable. To state the obvious, it could go either way.

[right]

This may be reading too much from the 2015 result but the Lib Dems and Greens don't seem to stand a chance here.

So will the Tory and UKIP candidates both re-stand? Are they locals? Pye seems to be quite active for the police and crime commissioner election so presumably he'd be a natural candidate here as he must be starting to get some decent name recognition and the election will only boost it.

[right]

Dec 21, 2016 19:15:06 GMT The Bishop said:

The upside of things is that Labour "only" need to modestly increase their share from the GE to become effectively unbeatable. To state the obvious, it could go either way.

If the UKIP vote were to break, which way do you think it would go?   Was Reed's position on the right of the party apparent to the voters?

[right]

I know there are lots of different factors, but the 1976 by-election was the only time the Tories won the seat:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workington_by-election,_1976

[Sibboleth]

Different seat! This one was at the time known as Whitehaven. Although part of it was then in Workington (and was a pretty Tory part as well). Labour have held this seat since 1935 except that it would certainly have been lost on current boundaries in the 80s. And even on the old boundaries was only held then because Jack Cunningham was personally popular. Basically it's very polarised with the former West Cumberland coalfield outvoting the farmers and the Sellafield managers/professionals.

[AdminSTB]

Youngish MPs leaving the Commons mid way through a Parliament - despite risking political damage to their party - seems to be becoming an ever growing trend.

[right]

Dec 21, 2016 19:44:35 GMT Sibboleth said:

Different seat! This one was at the time known as Whitehaven. Although part of it was then in Workington (and was a pretty Tory part as well).

Err yeah. Oops.

[lennon]

This is the 4th by-election in a row now that could be considered 'optional' rather than 'forced'. Is that a recent record and does it signify anything, or just random happenstance?

[Foggy]

Dec 21, 2016 19:49:11 GMT lennon said:

This is the 4th by-election in a row now that could be considered 'optional' rather than 'forced'. Is that a recent record and does it signify anything, or just random happenstance?

Nothing random about it. It's an utterly deplorable trend.

[AdminSTB]

Dec 21, 2016 13:47:44 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Honestly I hope Labour hold on here just for the sake of keeping Jeremy Corbyn in as their leader. The party would probably benefit more from losing this seat as some justification to get rid of him.

I am reminded of Ossie O'Brien in Darlington. The difference being it was a bit late by March 1983, as it turned out, to talk about ousting Michael Foot.

[Rural Radical]

Dec 21, 2016 19:36:55 GMT right said:

I know there are lots of different factors, but the 1976 by-election was the only time the Tories won the seat:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workington_by-election,_1976

Wrong seat

[iain]

To those getting carried away with the idea of a Tory gain, let's remember the track record of governments gaining seats in by-elections, post-war:

Sunderland South, 1953 - 1.6% swing, as both major parties fell with the introduction of a Liberal candidate

Brighouse, 1960 - 0.9% swing

Bristol South East, 1961 - 13.3% swing away from the government, but Tony Benn's ineligibility allowed the second placed Conservative to be awarded the seat

Mitcham & Morden, 1982 - swing not meaningful, as the opposition vote split almost perfectly in half between the Labour and SDP (defector) candidates. The Tory vote fell by 0.5%


So outside of some very special circumstances, governments have gained only two seats, both on tiny swings. If the Tories replicated the Sleaford & North Hykeham swing (a very good one for a governing party, and in an area where Labour has no organisation and didn't try) then they still wouldn't win.

[myth11]

first test of a labour leave area so this should be fun

[Arthur Figgis]

May be an excuse for a period staying and drinking in the Prince of Wales in Foxfield, just outside the constituency.

[La Fontaine]

Dec 21, 2016 19:53:34 GMT AdminSTB said:

Dec 21, 2016 13:47:44 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Honestly I hope Labour hold on here just for the sake of keeping Jeremy Corbyn in as their leader. The party would probably benefit more from losing this seat as some justification to get rid of him.

I am reminded of Ossie O'Brien in Darlington. The difference being it was a bit late by March 1983, as it turned out, to talk about ousting Michael Foot.

Except that, it later transpired, a group of party and union grandees were planning to tell Michael Foot to stand down, had Ossie lost.

[La Fontaine]

Dec 21, 2016 20:38:32 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

May be an excuse for a period staying and drinking in the Prince of Wales in Foxfield, just outside the constituency.

I can recommend the Hunday Manor in Workington. Good view of the Solway Firth.

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Labour have held this seat as has been indicated since 1935, but rarely with a great degree of comfort. The popularity of Jack Cunningham was certainly a factor in maintaining this throughout the 1980s. The choice of candidate is crucial in current circumstances for this to continue - if Labour gets this right I cannot see us losing the seat. Get it wrong and I would see at least an even chance of a Tory gain.