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Post by andrewteale on Dec 16, 2016 19:18:30 GMT
Transfers from Leven, Kennoway and Largo.
First prefs: SNP 1501 Lab 1155 C 752 LD 580 Grn 74
LD and Grn eliminated: SNP 1615 Lab 1302 C 954
C eliminated: SNP 1668 Lab 1620
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 16, 2016 20:06:05 GMT
Transfers from Leven, Kennoway and Largo. First prefs: SNP 1501 Lab 1155 C 752 LD 580 Grn 74 LD and Grn eliminated: SNP 1615 Lab 1302 C 954 C eliminated: SNP 1668 Lab 1620 I'd have thought the way the transfers went there would be a little worrying for the SNP. Not far out to losing to a unionist coalition of voters. |
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Post by dizz on Dec 16, 2016 21:08:15 GMT
Transfers from Leven, Kennoway and Largo. First prefs: SNP 1501 Lab 1155 C 752 LD 580 Grn 74 LD and Grn eliminated: SNP 1615 Lab 1302 C 954 C eliminated: SNP 1668 Lab 1620 I'd have thought the way the transfers went there would be a little worrying for the SNP. Not far out to losing to a unionist coalition of voters. Agreed - very encouraging in that respect. |
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Post by killie1 on Dec 17, 2016 10:10:38 GMT
I definitely think people are still voting for a party that shareshe their constitutional preference hence why you see circa 85% of available Tory preferences going to Labour over the SNP in the penultimate count. I think next May's elections may prove something of a headache for the SNP as they seem to be becoming transfer toxic for other unionist parties whereas in the past in areas considered as Labour fiefdoms Tories would have given their 2nd or 3rd preference to the SNP to keep Labour out.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,910
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 17, 2016 11:19:48 GMT
I definitely think people are still voting for a party that shareshe their constitutional preference hence why you see circa 85% of available Tory preferences going to Labour over the SNP in the penultimate count. I think next May's elections may prove something of a headache for the SNP as they seem to be becoming transfer toxic for other unionist parties whereas in the past in areas considered as Labour fiefdoms Tories would have given their 2nd or 3rd preference to the SNP to keep Labour out. Yes, to some extent, but also worth considering following points: - The SNP weren't actually all that transfer friendly in 2012 (surprisingly un-transfer friendly in some cases) - There's a large proportion of those unionist votes that aren't transferring. - I think the evidence is that Conservative transfers are favouring Labour more than Labour transfers are favouring the Conservatives. This isn't all that surprising, the spike in Conservative support is almost certainly mainly amongst strong unionists. - If I was the SNP, I'd be rather more worried that 1st preferences are starting to go backwards from 2012 levels. This may have a bigger impact in terms of seats next year. |
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Post by thirdchill on Dec 17, 2016 12:25:48 GMT
I definitely think people are still voting for a party that shareshe their constitutional preference hence why you see circa 85% of available Tory preferences going to Labour over the SNP in the penultimate count. I think next May's elections may prove something of a headache for the SNP as they seem to be becoming transfer toxic for other unionist parties whereas in the past in areas considered as Labour fiefdoms Tories would have given their 2nd or 3rd preference to the SNP to keep Labour out. Yes, to some extent, but also worth considering following points: - The SNP weren't actually all that transfer friendly in 2012 (surprisingly un-transfer friendly in some cases) - There's a large proportion of those unionist votes that aren't transferring. - I think the evidence is that Conservative transfers are favouring Labour more than Labour transfers are favouring the Conservatives. This isn't all that surprising, the spike in Conservative support is almost certainly mainly amongst strong unionists. - If I was the SNP, I'd be rather more worried that 1st preferences are starting to go backwards from 2012 levels. This may have a bigger impact in terms of seats next year. All of the above is true. One further point I would make is that for the SNP, having the lib dems in second place is the biggest problem, since they are the most transfer-friendly out of any of the main parties, though labour still do pretty well out of transfers. The SNP support is still strong but the dip in 1st preferences is showing that there are some signs of weakness developing, due to being in power in scotland for 10 years. There's only so many times the SNP can blame london before people turn around and say 'But what are you doing in scotland?' |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 17, 2016 12:52:12 GMT
I am getting an indication that the Conservatives are a little more transfer friendly and Labour is a bit less transfer friendly. But the LDs have very much recovered their transfer friendly status, at least as a marker of short-term attitude, but not perhaps an indicator of prediction for next GE vote.
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 17, 2016 14:44:46 GMT
No transfers in the GE...
Equally I don't think these results are much use in predicting the inter-galactic presidential polls in the year 2783.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,851 
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Post by Crimson King on Dec 17, 2016 14:46:12 GMT
No transfers in the GE... Equally I don't think these results are much use in predicting the inter-galactic presidential polls in the year 2783. vote Beeblebrox, its a two head race |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 17, 2016 23:36:25 GMT
No transfers in the GE... Equally I don't think these results are much use in predicting the inter-galactic presidential polls in the year 2783. No transfers, but there is tactical voting, which deserted the Lib Dems at the cost of many seats in 2015... |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 19, 2016 22:04:31 GMT
Blackburn & Darwen, Higher Croft - Labour hold | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2012 | | Labour | 435 | 58.2% | -15.6% | +12.1% | -11.8% | -11.4% | -20.8% | UKIP | 187 | 25.0% | from nowhere | -8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 125 | 16.7% | -9.4% | -3.8% | -13.3% | -13.6% | -4.2% | Total votes | 747 |
| 63% | 27% | 58% | 58% | 57% |
Swing not meaningful apart from possibly ~ 10% UKIP to Labour since 2015 Council now 44 Labour, 16 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Fife, Leven, Kennoway & Largo - SNP hold
- based on first preference votes | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | SNP | 1,501 | 37.0% | -4.1% | -4.7% | Labour | 1,155 | 28.4% | -6.9% | -2.4% | Conservative | 752 | 18.5% | +11.7% | +7.6% | Liberal Democrat | 580 | 14.3% | +4.3% | -1.0% | Green | 74 | 1.8% | from nowhere | +0.6% | Pensioner |
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| -6.9% |
| Total votes | 4,062 |
| 69% | 56% |
Swing Labour to SNP ~ 1½% since 2012 but SNP to Labour ~1¼% since 2007
Council now 33 Labour, 26 SNP, 10 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent, 3 Conservative, 1 Vacant
Powys, Welshpool Llanerchyddol - Independent hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2008 | since 2004 | | Independent | 323 | 48.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 212 | 32.1% | -17.7% | -13.2% | +0.8% | Conservative | 126 | 19.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -50.2% | -54.7% | -68.8% | Total votes | 661 |
| Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 | Row 6 column 6 |
Swing, if meaningful, notional Liberal Democrat to Independent ~ 8% since 2012 and ~4% since 2008
Council now 46 various Independents, 11 Liberal Democrats, 9 Conservative, 7 Labour, 1 Independent affialated to Conservatives
St Edmundsbury, Moreton Hall - Independent gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Independent | 550 | 56.0% | +22.4% | +21.0% | +10.2% | +7.5% | Conservative | 213 | 21.7% | -22.1% | -19.8% | -16.7% | -15.3% | Liberal Democrat | 102 | 10.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 71 | 7.2% | -15.4% | -16.3% | -8.6% | -7.3% | UKIP | 47 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 983 |
| 23% | 24% | 31% | 33% |
Swing Conservative to Independent ~ 22% / 20½% since 2015 and 13½% / 11½% since 2011
Council now 34 Conservative, 5 UKIP, 3 Independent, 2 Labour, 1 Green
Taunton Deane, Blackdown - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | Liberal Democrat | 440 | 71.2% | +49.9% | +37.5% | +34.4% | Conservative | 139 | 22.5% | -30.4% | -33.8% | -40.7% | No Description | 39 | 6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -15.0% |
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| Green |
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| -10.8% |
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| Labour |
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| -10.0% |
| Total votes | 618 |
| 44% | 69% | 81% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 40% since 2015, ~ 36% since 2011 and ~37½% since 2007
Council now 34 Conservative, 15 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 2 Labour, 1 UKIP
Teignbridge, Bovey - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 838 | 43.9% | +20.3% | +24.4% | +18.5% | +17.5% | +19.7% | Conservative | 631 | 33.1% | -4.2% | -5.2% | -17.2% | -6.3% | -6.1% | Independent Kelly | 169 | 8.9% | -1.5% | -2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 103 | 5.4% | -7.4% | -7.3% | -5.2% | -2.3% | -2.5% | UKIP | 98 | 5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -8.5% | -1.9% | -2.5% | Independent West * | 68 | 3.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -15.9% | -17.9% |
| -8.1% | -8.8% | Previous Independent |
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| -11.3% | -12.3% | Total votes | 1,907 |
| 31% | 35% | 103% | 45% | 48% |
* Liberal Democrat candidate in 2013 by-election
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 12% / 15% since 2015, ~ 18% since 2013 by-election and ~ 12% / 13% since 2011
Council now 27 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
Teignbridge, Chudleigh - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat * | 680 | 51.5% | +40.4% | +40.1% | +36.4% | +36.0% | Conservative ** | 470 | 35.6% | +7.0% | +8.0% | +8.7% | +10.7% | UKIP | 89 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 81 | 6.1% | -6.9% | -7.2% | -8.2% | -8.6% | Independent Keeling * |
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| -21.5% | -22.1% | -26.7% | -27.4% | Independent Evans / Webb ** |
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| -12.9% | -12.4% |
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| Green |
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| -12.8% | -13.1% |
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| -17.0% | -17.4% | Total votes | 1,320 |
| 29% | 30% | 40% | 41% |
* New Councillor stood as Independent in 2015 and elected as Independent Councillor in 2011 thereby regain seat lost in 2015 ** Conservative candidate stood as an Independent in 2015 Swing not considered particularly meaningful Council now 27 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
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