Byelections 15 December 2016

[Tom]

Very strong set of results for the Liberal Democrats. Makes an early election even more unlikely.

[andrewp]

Dec 16, 2016 0:04:43 GMT greenhert said:

Goodness me-even by the standards of local by-elections, a 40.15% swing between any two parties or candidates is normally unheard of. I wonder what the issues there were...

The candidates-100%.

Local Lib Dem county councillor who goes to all the village events against a Tory with, dare I say it, a 'foreign' name.

[Deleted]

Dec 16, 2016 1:04:32 GMT Sibboleth said:

The BNP polled as much as 30% in Higher Croft once.

There was no campaign of any note to appeal to those voters at this by-election. All the campaign's were very low-key, to the point of almost being invisible.

[carlton43]

Dec 16, 2016 1:20:36 GMT countryboy said:

Dec 15, 2016 23:52:53 GMT countryboy said:

Moreton Hall Bury St Edmunds

Ind 550
Con213
LD 102
Lab 71
UKIP 47

Turn Out 18.7%

There is a live planning application for a 24hour drive-through Mcdonalds in Moreton Hall ward and this was a big issue in the by-election with the Independent candidate heavily opposed to the plan. 

Anybody attempting to thwart McDonald's was deserving of all the votes. Good result.

[carlton43]

Slack water in the electoral cycle and the seasons of the year. That said some sound LD advances show evidence of ground work and in place organization that should be a warning to all others.

[Deleted]

Great night for the lib dems. Shouldn't labour be performing better in these elections or have they given up on running for government and are now a band?

[maxque]

Dec 16, 2016 8:02:38 GMT @barctom said:

Great night for the lib dems. Shouldn't labour be performing better in these elections or have they given up on running for government and are now a band?

To be fair to them, 4 by-elections in rural Southern England in wards where LD are well-structured or locally known Independents running is probably not going to be good for them unless we are in 1997 landslide territory.

They held in Blackburn, the fall in Leven wasn't that bad (it was much worse in the past months) and Labour doesn't really exist in Powys (they exist in Brecon and in the parts that's really the top of the Welsh Valleys, but Welshpool is nowhere near that).

[La Fontaine]

SNP majority only 48 in Fife at final stage.

[carlton43]

Dec 16, 2016 1:46:57 GMT Tom said:

Very strong set of results for the Liberal Democrats. Makes an early election even more unlikely.

A few by-elections on low polls in the dead of December will have no effect whatsoever on the chances of an early GE. On a scale of 0-10 it would barely make zero! Nor is it an indicator of Labour fortunes in any way. Nor does it presage a sweep of Westminster seats to the LDs. An early GE will be determined by necessity, opportunity or frustration with the basis for Brexit and gaining an actual mandate for an outline plan.............Once there is an outline plan!

If the by-elections maintain this trend with multiple LD gains into April with more points on their poll totals and more off Labour it might still encourage a GE on the basis of hitting Labour when still blighted by problems and shedding votes elsewhere and in expectation that Local Authority success does not always immediately transfer into GE success.

[The Bishop]

Dec 16, 2016 10:31:12 GMT La Fontaine said:

SNP majority only 48 in Fife at final stage.

There have been a clutch of previous byelections in Fife since the GE which showed much bigger Lab to SNP swings.

And the decent LibDem result is a reminder that they used to be a force here, even outside Ming Campbell's old stamping ground.

[lbarnes]

Dec 16, 2016 8:02:38 GMT @barctom said:

Great night for the lib dems. Shouldn't labour be performing better in these elections or have they given up on running for government and are now a band?

On a night of the Conservatives losing all four wards they were defending but gaining none that's probably a little harsh.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 16, 2016 10:53:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 16, 2016 10:31:12 GMT La Fontaine said:

SNP majority only 48 in Fife at final stage.

There have been a clutch of previous byelections in Fife since the GE which showed much bigger Lab to SNP swings.

And the decent LibDem result is a reminder that they used to be a force here, even outside Ming Campbell's old stamping ground.

But a large part of this ward is in his old stamping ground (Leven was added latterly but Largo was always in NE Fife)

[The Bishop]

Did not know that, actually. I presume Largo is the weakest part of this division for Labour, then?

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 12, 2016 14:28:28 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Profile of Leven, Kennoway and Largo:

In the west of the ward situated just north of the River Largo is the village of Windygates. The village is relatively prosperous. Most of the central-west of the village is made up of council housing, in contrast to the more affluent suburbs in the north-east. There’s a pretty solid SNP vote in this area, who managed to take 56% of the vote at the 2003 local council elections.

Moving north is the larger and more deprived village of Kennoway. Kennoway mostly consists of council housing, with high deprivation particularly in the south-east. Similar to Windygates there is a strong SNP vote around this area, who managed to take 54% of the vote here in 2003.

South-east between the banks of the River Leven and the coast is the ward’s main settlement of Leven. Leven forms a part of the ‘Levenmouth’ urban area with the larger connecting town of Methil to the south and Buckhaven further south. The town is an industrial working class area with relatively high rates of deprivation, though it's less deprived than the wider “Levenmouth” average. In 2003 the Leven East ward returned 50% Labour, 26% SNP, 14.5% Conservative and 10% Liberal Democrat, with Leven West returning 65% Labour, 25% SNP, 5% Conservative and 4.5% Liberal Democrat.

North-east along the coast is the village of Lower Largo, and the much smaller village of Upper Largo in-land. This area is significantly more prosperous than Leven and Kennoway. Upper Largo, Lower Largo and their surrounding hinterlands returned a significant 50% Liberal Democrat vote at the 2003 local elections, the Conservatives managing 28% of the vote, SNP 16% and Labour 6%.

Overall the ward is mostly deprived and working class in nature. The SNP took the largest share of the vote here in the 2012 council elections, and my estimates suggest that the area voted in favour of Scottish independence in 2014 by around 53% of the vote. There's a good SNP vote here, so expect them to hold on...

[Pete Whitehead]

2003 results
Kennoway (Glenrothes)

SNP 743 54.2%
Lab  490 35.8%
LD      73  5.3%
Con   64  4.7%

Leven West and Kirkland (Glenrothes)

Lab 1087 64.9%
SNP  420 25.1%
Con     91  5.4%
LD       76  4.5%

Leven East (NE Fife since 2005)

Lab  849 50.1%
SNP 435 25.7%
Con 246 14.5%
LD   164   9.7%

Largo (NE Fife since forever)

LD   908 50.3%
Con 513 28.4%
SNP 282 15.6%
Lab  102  5.7%

(most of the the Windygates ward mentioned above isn't in this new ward)

[tonygreaves]

Dec 16, 2016 7:50:24 GMT carlton43 said:

Slack water in the electoral cycle and the seasons of the year. That said some sound LD advances show evidence of ground work and in place organization that should be a warning to all others.

Odd definition of slack water. Not a spring tide perhaps, but there's a swell running at least in the West.

[carlton43]

Dec 16, 2016 16:11:54 GMT tonygreaves said:

Dec 16, 2016 7:50:24 GMT carlton43 said:

Slack water in the electoral cycle and the seasons of the year. That said some sound LD advances show evidence of ground work and in place organization that should be a warning to all others.

Odd definition of slack water. Not a spring tide perhaps, but there's a swell running at least in the West.

I regard this season as the Dead Pool of the year with slack water going in no direction and in short day half light.

[Antiochian]

Dec 16, 2016 12:19:21 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 16, 2016 10:53:13 GMT The Bishop said:

There have been a clutch of previous byelections in Fife since the GE which showed much bigger Lab to SNP swings.

And the decent LibDem result is a reminder that they used to be a force here, even outside Ming Campbell's old stamping ground.

But a large part of this ward is in his old stamping ground (Leven was added latterly but Largo was always in NE Fife)

Got to agree here.. Most LibDem results in Scotland (except for one stellar win last year in Highlands) have been insipid to down.. 

[A Brown]

Dec 16, 2016 17:33:24 GMT Antiochian said:

Dec 16, 2016 12:19:21 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

But a large part of this ward is in his old stamping ground (Leven was added latterly but Largo was always in NE Fife)

Got to agree here.. Most LibDem results in Scotland (except for one stellar win last year in Highlands) have been insipid to down.. 

Lib Dems are back to where they were in 2007 when STV was first introduced so not bad at all. The SNP should be slightly troubled as they are 4% down on 2007 and the area around Largo is clearly ripe for massive anti SNP tactical voting in 2020.

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 16, 2016 17:39:38 GMT A Brown said:

Dec 16, 2016 17:33:24 GMT Antiochian said:

Got to agree here.. Most LibDem results in Scotland (except for one stellar win last year in Highlands) have been insipid to down.. 

Lib Dems are back to where they were in 2007 when STV was first introduced so not bad at all. The SNP should be slightly troubled as they are 4% down on 2007 and the area around Largo is clearly ripe for massive anti SNP tactical voting in 2020.

I have to admit I'm surprised how quickly the LibDems are recovering. It could be the benefit of not having the distractions of national government allows them to concentrate on their strength which is local government. If the rumours of Nick Clegg retiring in2020 come to pass that will certainly, in my opionion, make for healthier local politics in Sheffield without the distraction of a party leader being a local MP.

Probably a thought for a seperate thread, but how common has it been for a party leader to represent a seat in a council where they are in opposition? A quick thought suggests party leaders tend to represent an area where their party controls the local government.