Gambia Presidential election 2016

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The noon deadline was extended, so Mauritania's Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz and Guinea's Alpha Conde (Jammeh's closest allies in the region) could try to talk him into going into exile in a West African country of his choice (or Morocco), but he has declined. It was considered his final chance to go peacefully.

White flags are reportedly flying from Gambian army posts in the countryside, and a large part of the army has switched sides, among them the elite Republican Guards in charge of Jammeh's personal protection and garrisoned in the Bakau barracks close to Banjul. 

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Jammeh expected to fly out on the Mauritanian plane that brought Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz and Guinea's Alpha Conde to Banjul.

"Red carpets have been laid out at the airport in Banjul in what appears to be preparations for a farewell speech and a departure."

Though given how erratic he is nothing is certain until he actually board the plane.

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Barrow says Yahya Jammeh "has agreed to step down".

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According to Ecowas Jammeh apparently agreed to step down yesterday evening, but demanded amnesty for all crimes committed during his 22 years in power and wanted to stay in his home village of Kanilai. They refused these demands as Jammeh's continued presence in Gambia would create "disturbances to public order and terrorist movements". Ecowas SG de Souza says they want Barrow to take power in Gambia "without any security threats."

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Yahya Jammeh announced this morning in a brief statement on state television that he has "decided" to relinquish power.

"I believe it is not necessary that a single drop of blood be shed, all the issues we currently face will be resolved peacefully".

He gave no details on any deal struck, or when and where he will go, but State House officials say he will leave within three days, possibly already today onboard the plane of Guinean president Alpha Condé.

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A Mauritanian diplomatic source has said to AP that Jammeh will likely leave during the day, and most most likely go to Equatorial Guinea (under the protection of Africa's longest ruling dictator Teodoro Obiang Nguema). Other diplomatic sources say Jammeh will head to the Guinean capital Conakry today. The final discussions revolve around where Jammeh will live in exile and the conditions around that (accommodation, the amount of loot he gets to take with him etc.)

Regional troops will remain in place to see whether Jammeh keeps his word (and given this is Jammeh everyone are keenly he could quite easily change his mind). He now has a three-day grace period with foreign troops on standby until he definitively has to quit the country. Though everyone hopes he leaves earlier. 

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If someone wonder why they do not just arrest Jammeh, that would set an example which other authoritarian (and semi-authoritarian) leaders in West Africa would be very uncomfortable with, the leaders of Guinea and Mauritania being his long term allies, the risk of continuous violence from his supporters, and his tribal area bordering the unruly Casamance province in Senegal with risk of spill-over effects (exacerbated by Jammeh recruiting Casamance ex-rebels to his security forces). ECOWAS prefer sending him in a cushy exile far enough away that he will not easily be able to interfere in Gambian affairs, and they want as few security risks as possible to avoid having to maintain a permanent presence in Gambia (something Senegal and Nigeria would quickly be at odds over if it became necessary).

[John Chanin]

Very sensible to play it softly as @odo says. We should note however that Gambia only exists at all on sufferance from Senegal, of which it is geographically and ethnically part. This is another colonial lacuna, of which there are others in Africa (Guinea-Bissau for example).

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Jan 21, 2017 14:43:40 GMT John Chanin said:

Very sensible to play it softly as @odo says. We should note however that Gambia only exists at all on sufferance from Senegal, of which it is geographically and ethnically part. This is another colonial lacuna, of which there are others in Africa (Guinea-Bissau for example).

The alternative view is that the Casamance region of Senegal should be independent or united with Gambia, which would then no longer be surrounded by Senegal. Until 2014 there was an active rebellion trying to accomplish this (with Gambian support). If Senegal tried to annex Gambia they would get in serious trouble (and not just in Gambia). 

Jammeh is a Jola, and the Jolas are the majority population in Casamance and also live in adjacent parts of Guinea-Bissau. Their traditional religion is a mix of animism and belief in an "Owner of the Universe" and in Casamance they resisted the advance of Islam and those who aren't following their traditional faith are now Christians, so its population is both religiously and ethnically distinct from the rest of Senegal, while they have shared ethnicity (but not religion) with many in SW Gambia. 

(Coastal) Casamance was dominated by the Portuguese until the French strong-armed Portugal into ceding it in 1888, they still use the Portuguese based Ziguinchor Creole, the Mulatto community carry Portuguese surnames, and the separatists have reviewed the Portuguese heritage to mark their distinct identity. Besides the region is filled with Bissauans (both long time expats, and refugees from the hellhole that Guinea-Bissau has turned into).

I can't see how Guinea-Bissau is a "lacuna" as its a coastal state located in between two other countries. You might as well say Latvia is a lacuna between Estonia and Lithuania. Its an ethnically diverse place which isn't a natural part of Guinea (and the Portuguese have left both a significant Mulatto population and cultural influence behind). Guinea is 85% Muslim and despite recent advances Muslims are still the minority in mainly animist Guinea-Bissau. Merging Gambia, Casamance and Guinea-Bissau would make more sense than combining either with Senegal and Guinea.

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Adama Barrow says Jammeh is expected to leave for Guinea "within hours".

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Yahya Jammeh and his family finally went into exile on Saturday night aboard a plane bound for Guinea, and then proceeded to Equatorial Guinea, which unlike Guinea isn't a party to the ICC. 



"Jammeh supporters flocked to the airport to see him walk the red carpet to his plane. Women shouted: "Don't go! Don't go! As he mounted the stairs to the plane, he turned to the crowd, kissed his Quran and waved one last time to supporters, including soldiers who cried at his departure."

Touchy..

Shortly after Jammeh's departure, the UN, AU and ECOWAS issued a joint declaration saying that any country offering him and his family "African hospitality" shouldn't be punished and that he should be free to return to Gambia in the future (stating Jammeh is leaving temporarily). The joint statement doesn't include promises of amnesty but says the world and regional bodies "commit to work with the government of the Gambia to prevent the seizure of assets and properties lawfully belonging to former President Jammeh or his family and those of his cabinet members, government officials and party supporters." (which is a bit much given that he owned nothing when he couped his way to power as a 29 year old junior officer back in 1994, and this applies to most of his cronies as well).

Human rights activists and the the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy have demanded that he be held accountable for his crimes, including torture, murder and detention of opponents. An online petition has urged that Jammeh shouldn't be granted asylum, but be arrested. Barrow sticks to his idea of a RSA style truth and reconciliation commission

"Jammeh came as a pauper bearing guns. He should leave as a disrobed despot. The properties he seeks to protect belong to Gambians and Gambia, and he must not be allowed to take them with him."

ECOWAS has announced a halt to the military operation in Gambia, but the force already in Banjul will stay until Barrow's arrival, which is expected within a couple of days.

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Unsurprisingly Jammeh stole more than $11.4 million during his two final weeks in power, systematically plundering Gambia's meagre state coffers as well as shipping luxury goods out on a Chadian cargo plane during his final hours in power, including a substantial number of very expensive cars. So leaving in classical African dictator style. 

Equatorial Guinea has so far declined to comment on whether Jammeh is in the country (but there is no doubt he is). The country's main opposition party the Convergence for Social Democracy (CPDS) have denounced the decision to grant Jammeh political exile. Their SG Andres Esono Ondo says welcoming Jammeh is like "welcoming the waste of Africa". Stating "the CPDS rejects this decision and holds President Teodoro Obiang Nguema responsible for what might occur as result of Jammeh's presence on Equatorial Guinean soil."

While its a matter of solidarity between dictators Obiang might regret taking in Jammeh as it draws the international media spotlight to otherwise forgotten Equatorial Guinea and emboldens the opposition. 

[Merseymike]

Lets just hope Barrow fulfils his promises - he sounds like a reasonable man who wants to roll back Jammeh's excesses.

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Adama Barrow's VP won't be the current opposition spokesman and prominent publisher/editor Halifa Sallah, who was picked for the job back in December, but Fatoumatta Tambajang. She is a former UNDP gender and development expert, who has been Minister of Health, Social Welfare and Women's Affairs in the mid-90s coup government, but subsequently left the cabinet and became a pro-democracy activist, and is considered one of the main architects behind the formation of the Coalition 2016. Her United Democratic Party is also on the left as Sallah's People's Democratic Organisation for Independence and Socialism (though not sure how much that matters in a place like Gambia).

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Adama Barrow returned to Banjul today and was greeted by thousands of supporters. He will be staying at his own home while State House is assessed for "potential risks".

His first job is to deal with the crisis in his coalition after it emerged his VP pick Fatoumata Tambajang is too old to serve (she is 67, and the constitution says a VP can not be older than 65). But they may find a way around that (its after all Jammeh's constitution, not a democratically approved on).

Around 4,000 ECOWAS troops remain in Gambia too keep a check on rogue pro-Jammeh elements in the security forces. Barrow has asked the ECOWAs force to remain for 2-3 weeks to see if there are foreign mercenaries hiding out and search for arms caches that could be used for a rebellion.

Barrow has told Jammeh he will have all the rights legally ensured to an ex-president in the constitution, which includes immunity from prosecution unless a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly removes it. They will probably wait a while to do this so things can settle down first.

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The elections to the National Assembly will be held on April 6. 53 members are to be elected by FPTP and Barrow gets to appoint an additional 5 MPs.

[johnloony]

That looks like 38 constituencies to me

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"Ten of the eleven ministers appointed so far were sworn in yesterday at the Kairaba Beach Hotel which is temporarily serving as the State House of President Adama Barrow ( ). However, one of the eight seven parties that formed the coalition government has so far no member in the new cabinet of President Barrow."
thepoint.gm/africa/gambia/article/barrow-swears-in-new-cabinet-one-coalition-party-missing

The new ministers: 
gambia.smbcgo.com/2017/02/01/barrows-cabinet-is-taking-shape-here-are-your-10-ministers-so-far

Foreign Affairs and Gambians Aboard: Ousainou Darboe (UDP, party leader)
Agriculture: Omar A Jallow (PPP)
Tourism and Culture: Hamat N.K. Bah (NRP)
Interior Affairs: Mai Ahmed Fatty (GMC)
Youth and Sports: Henry Gomez (GPDP)
Forestry, Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources: Lamin B. Dibba (independent)
Trade, Regional Integration and Employment: Dr. Isatou Touray (anti-FGM activist, independent)
Finance and Economic Affairs: Amadou Sanneh (UDP)
Fisheries, Water Resources and National Assembly Matters: James Gomez (NCP)
Lands and Regional Government: Lamin N. Dibba (UDP)
Justice: Ba Tambadou (human rights lawyer and former UN International Court prosecutor, independent)

Three of the new ministers are from Barrow's own United Democratic Party (UDP), while the other five parties are represented by their leaders (Bah, Fatty, Jallow, Henry Gomez, and James Gomez) except the Peoples Democratic Party for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS), led by government spokesperson Halifa Sallah, but wasn't even at the swearing in ceremony. So the Socialists might be about to be squeezed out. Given that Halifa Sallah was once the designated VP that would be quite a downfall.

See also:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/gambia-president-adama-barrow-pledges-reforms-170128194124520.html

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"President Adama Barrow has replaced the head of the military, a pillar of his predecessor Yahya Jammeh's repressive government, and dismissed a number of senior military officers, officials said on Monday. The director of the prisons system was also arrested, as were nine men suspected of being members of Jammeh's alleged death squads, known as the Jungulars. The moves were the latest in a series of arrests and personnel changes under Barrow, who is seeking to assert control following the end of Jammeh's 22-year rule."

www.reuters.com/article/us-gambia-politics-idUSKBN1662AN