Gambia Presidential election 2016

[Deleted]

The Security Council has unanimously demanded that Jammeh "without condition and undue delay" hand over power to Barrow and "strongly condemned" Jammeh's decision to reject the results and call for a new election. Ban Ki-moon has called for a "peaceful, timely and orderly transfer of power, in full respect of the will of the Gambian people.

Senegal has requested a SC meeting to discuss the crisis, which will be held today.

Liberian president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has been dispatched to Banjul by Ecowas to defuse the crisis, but her plane wasn't allowed to land in Banjul. The speaker of the Nigerian parliament has called for military intervention if Jammeh refuses to step down.

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 12, 2016 4:20:01 GMT @odo said:

The Security Council has unanimously demanded that Jammeh "without condition and undue delay" hand over power to Barrow and "strongly condemned" Jammeh's decision to reject the results and call for a new election.
...
The speaker of the Nigerian parliament has called for military intervention if Jammeh refuses to step down.

I get really puzzled by this African tradition of "advisory" presidential elections! Surely if you lose an election you don't chose to stand down, your officeholding simply ceases to exist.

[Deleted]

Dec 12, 2016 14:13:32 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Dec 12, 2016 4:20:01 GMT @odo said:

The Security Council has unanimously demanded that Jammeh "without condition and undue delay" hand over power to Barrow and "strongly condemned" Jammeh's decision to reject the results and call for a new election.
...
The speaker of the Nigerian parliament has called for military intervention if Jammeh refuses to step down.

I get really puzzled by this African tradition of "advisory" presidential elections! Surely if you lose an election you don't chose to stand down, your officeholding simply ceases to exist.

Yes in principle, but not if the incumbent president is a dictator trying to legitimize his rule. Modern day autocrats usually try to legitimize their rule by holding (and rigging) elections and then we get these charades where (as a minimum) results are challenged in the courts and power changes negotiated (sometimes with UN approval as has been the case in Kenya). 

China being the biggest dictatorship + a few high profile countries, such as NK, conceal the fact that there is increasingly a standard model for how authoritarian regimes rule that includes faux-democracy in order to camouflage the real nature of the regime and (pretend to) comply with international norms. 

[Lord Twaddleford]

Soldiers seize election HQ.

[Deleted]

Dec 13, 2016 16:43:15 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

Soldiers seize election HQ.

Doing it while "the leaders of Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia and Sierra Leone are all in The Gambia for talks with Mr Jammeh" is a major provocation. An Ecowas intervention seems more and more likely. 

[Deleted]

Good piece on the Gambian army and their relationship with Jammeh:
africanarguments.org/2016/12/16/gambia-why-the-army-may-be-the-key-to-getting-jammeh-to-step-down/

"Part of the explanation is that the armed forces have been developed and structured around loyalty to Jammeh. Promotions (and demotions) are based on faithfulness, not training, experience, or time in service. Those perceived as loyal to Jammeh may be moved up several ranks, even from enlisted to officer. Meanwhile those whose devotion is not strong enough can find themselves demoted, dismissed, jailed, and in some cases executed. A murky network of informants within the security services keeps soldiers wary.

There have also long been rumours that part of Jammeh’s loyalty campaign involves recruiting non-Gambians into the armed forces (as he also does for the judiciary). In particular, , he is alleged to enlist members of the MFDC, a separatist rebel group in the Casamance region of south Senegal. This is one of the many ways Jammeh is entangled in the Casamance rebellion. These soldiers would likely have less interest in the will of the Gambian people and be more willing to support Jammeh."

(...)

"Furthermore, ethnic favouritism is alleged to have created sharp divisions within the forces. Jammeh has given a disproportionate number of senior positions to his small ethnic group, the Jolas. Currently, the head of the Army, State Guards, and National Intelligence Agency are all of the Jola ethnicity. Jammeh’s alarming hate speech against the Mandinka group in the run up to the elections likely only heightened ethnic concerns."

The Casamance situation provides a major incentive for Senegal to get him out of the way, and I think they will be able to persuade other Western African states that Jammeh needs to be forced out - one way or the other.

[Deleted]

President-elect Adama Barrow has said that he will declare himself president on January 18 (the official inauguration day) if Yahya Jammeh doesn't leave office. 

[Deleted]

The ECOWAS HoS met today in Abuja with Gambia's crisis prioritised on the list of topics to be discussed and the "political impasse" in Guinea Bissau second.

ECOWAS chairperson, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, and Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari (among others) had already been in Banjul trying to persuade Jammeh to accept the results of the elections, and peacefully step down, but no result yet.

[Deleted]

ECOWAS chair Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has urged the leaders at the bloc's summit in the Nigerian capital of Abuja on Saturday to decide "measures to bring this matter to successful conclusion before January 19".  But nothing concrete yet, talk about sanctions.

(....)

On Friday, Marcel de Souza, the bloc's president, said a military intervention must be considered if diplomacy failed to persuade Jammeh to step down.

(...)

Ebrima Sall, a Gambian senior social scientist, told Al Jazeera the business community, religious leaders and bar association have been calling on Jammeh to step down.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/jammeh-step-west-african-leaders-161217134207866.html

[Merseymike]

They're really not keen on the notion of losing an election, are they?

[Deleted]

Senegalese President Macky Sall: 

“The use of force can only be an ultimate step when diplomacy has completely failed. I do not think it is reasonable for President Jammeh and his allies to engage in a showdown.”

“There were certainly crimes. But if we engage in a showdown, it is clear that the consequences will be much more dramatic. If it is necessary to dialogue and find a way out for Jammeh to be protected, why not. I am for dialogue and allow him to leave quietly.”

[Deleted]

The ECOWAS HoS have called on Jammeh to accept the election results and not take any action that will compromise the transition process.

They have also appointed Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari as their mediator in Gambia and outgoing Ghanaian president John Dramani Mahama as his assistant; and agreed that all West African HoS will attend the inauguration of Adama Barrow on January 19.

With Buhari as mediator the game is up for Jammeh, its a clear signal that Nigeria will not accept his regime continuing, and it would also be too great a loss of face for Buhari now.

[Deleted]

Jammeh is still feisty:

"ECOWAS came, they met with me first and went to meet the other side. They came back and said: Well, despite all what you said, the results they announced are the will of the Gambian people", I said "how the hell do you know this is the will of the Gambian people."

Also say that ECOWAS is violating the principle of non-interference in internal matters of a member state and dares ECOWAS to enforce the results: "What are they waiting for? I will not be intimidated by any power in this world."


The original results as announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) were:

Adama Barrow 263,515 votes 45.5%
President Jammeh 212,099 36.7%
Mama Kandeh 102,969 17.8%

But they have now been "corrected" to:

Adama Barrow 222,708 votes 43.3%
President Jammeh 208,487 39.6%
Mama Kandeh 89,768 17.1%

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 3, 2016 1:24:25 GMT finsobruce said:

Dec 2, 2016 19:51:07 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38183906

Wut?


But now we will all have to wait and see if Jammeh will go quietly...

The new Gambian leader has British connections, oh yes.

"Born in 1965 near the eastern market town of Basse, Mr Barrow moved to London in the 2000s where he reportedly used to work as a security guard at an Argos catalogue store."

There were quiet cheers in the British Stubby Pen Marketing Board.

[Deleted]

From BBC:

"Senegal will lead military intervention to oust The Gambia's President Yahya Jammeh if he refuses to step down when his mandate expires on 19 January, a senior official of the West African regional grouping Ecowas has said.

"Stand-by forces" were on alert and would be deployed "to restore the people's wish" if mediators, led by Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari, failed to persuade Mr Jammeh to give up power, said Marcel Alain de Souza, the chairman of the Ecowas commission. He added that it was not Ecowas' "wish to set alight the zone" and if Mr Jammeh "loves" his people, he should "negotiate an exit door calmly":

Mr de Souza said: If it doesn’t happen, the most radical means will be used.”

(...)

The Supreme Court has set 10 January as a date for a case brought by Mr Jammeh's party to cancel the result." (and Ecowas will wait for that)

[Deleted]

The Gambian Supreme Court have brought in judges from Nigeria and Sierra Leone to sit on the "election fraud/voter intimidation" complaint from APRC, so its far from given they will side with Jammeh. They will hear the complaint on January 10, and likely rule shortly thereafter.

[Deleted]

ECOWAS has now made the situation abundantly clear. 

"The deadline is January 19 when the mandate of Jammeh expires," de Souza (head of the ECOWAS Commission) said. "If he doesn't go, we have a standby force, which is already on alert. And it's this standby force that should be able to intervene to restore the will of the people."

amediaagency.com/gambia-africa-bloc-vows-to-send-troops-if-jammeh-stays

[Deleted]

Jammeh has declared an ECOWAS intervention will be "an act of war", the top brass say they will support him (but no one knows if that is true). Lots of rumors going around (at one time Barrow was reported killed), but most likely Jammeh and his cronies will flee to some cushy exile shortly before the deadline. 

"If there were to be an ECOWAS intervention, which is a possible scenario now, with military support probably vanguarded by Senegal, one wonders how united the Gambian military would be, let alone its ability to combat an ECOWAS-disciplined force entering the country. At the moment the stakes rise, I imagine there will be a lot of shuttle diplomacy by the region and the UN to try and find a soft-landing option for President Jammeh and I think that is where the focus will be now. It will be buttressed by strong diplomatic language. So this is a bit like a game of chess at the moment, but January 19 really is the key date and that's the one that everybody is looking at."

www.dw.com/en/gambia-there-is-fear-everybody-is-fearful/a-37024262

[Deleted]

The complaint Jammeh and his party have filed against the IEC, alleging manipulation of ballot counting and intimidation of his supporters, is scheduled to be heard today, but  its likely there will not be enough judges sitting on the case, even with the speedy hiring of foreign judges, so an adjournment of the case is the most likely. The Gambian Supreme Court has been dormant since May 2015 after several judges were fired for commuting death sentences of former military officers to life in prson. Chief justice Emmanuel Fagbenle is the lone sitting Gambia judge and the rest are hired from overseas. Another matter is that the various parties haven't been served in time to apper. All in all it looks unlike the SC will rule before the "deadline" ECOWAS has set. 

[Deleted]

Founder and Editor-in-Chief of The Independent in Kampala Andrew M. Mwenda has some good points on "democracy crusades", but IMO they are not all that relevant in the Gambian case. Jammeh has alienated the major ethnic groups and interests in his country and Gambia would work fine without him. Besides his meddling in Senegalese affairs has doomed him, regardless of election tampering he has entered "mad dog" territory and its unavoidable that the major regional players want him out (and Buhari is hardly a pro-democracy activist).

www.independent.co.ug/last-word-ecomogs-gambian-gamble/2/

"A fundamentalist movement initiated by Western nations and supported by many elites elsewhere and in Africa has swept the world. This movement wants democracy along Western liberal lines to prevail everywhere. It supports the use of supra national institutions to enforce democracy where it is faltering. There are many people in the Western world who believe genuinely that liberal democracy should be spread across the world, even by force, as a one-size-fits-all solution irrespective of context."

(...)

"I have utmost confidence in the people of Gambia to secure their democracy by themselves. This may not happen today or tomorrow. But we need to avoid the temptation of thinking we can solve Africa’s problems with theoretical quick fixes. Left alone Gambians are best placed to shape the compromises that will ensure durable democratic practice. Foreign military intervention to force Barrow into power will undermine the necessary internal political negotiations that allow democracy to grow and consolidate. Instead, foreign forces will create an artificial scenario where the defeated feel they have been removed from power by foreign interests and may feel alienated from the political process and launch a civil war or wait until foreign armies leave for them to begin a war. Meanwhile, victorious political players, knowing where their bread is battered, will now depend on foreign military force for their political survival. This will undermine their incentives to seek internal political compromise and social integration."