joefaekemlin
SNP
I have been in or around the SNP since I was at primary school and a member since 1980
Posts: 147 
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Post by joefaekemlin on Mar 8, 2017 19:40:29 GMT
The latest Northern Ireland Life and Times survey (2015) would suggest otherwise. "Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it..."Among 18-24 year olds:...to remain part of the United Kingdom, with devolved government 51% ...to reunify with the rest of Ireland 16% ...to remain part of the United Kingdom, with direct rule 10% Independent state 3% Other 0% Don't Know 20% Among Roman Catholics:...to remain part of the United Kingdom, with devolved government 41% ...to reunify with the rest of Ireland 32% ...to remain part of the United Kingdom, with direct rule 6% Independent state 4% Other 1% Don't Know 16% Again, and I stress, turnout was significantly up in nationalist areas and virtually unchanged in unionist areas in this election. Just because there was a higher turnout among nationalist voters in this election does not mean that the pro-UK vote has just vanished. I mean just look at the results of the 2005, 2010 and 2015 UK general elections: the nationalists were ahead of the unionists in 2010 (with Sinn Féin polling first in Northern Ireland to a similar amount of hype) and were thoroughly punished in 2015 and 2016... Thoroughly punished is a bit harsh since it took a unity unionist candidate to win through in Fermanagh and South Tyrone first past the post in 2015. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2017 20:12:17 GMT
A high nationalist turnout in a single election doesn't wipe away the pro-UK majority in Northern Ireland. Its only a matter of time. The nats are outbreeding the unionists. Lol Same in Scotland as well I guess where the lesser spotted Tory is becoming as endangered as the "near-extinct-in-the-wild" Labour red breast.... The Famous Scottish National Grouse however is thriving... |
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Mar 8, 2017 21:16:06 GMT
One can never say never, but two polls from Ipsos Mori and Lucid Talk last Autumn had support for unification at 23% and 27% respectively (opposition was 66% and 61% respectively). That was an increase in support for unification, compared to pre-Brexit, but not a decisive one.
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Mar 8, 2017 21:28:17 GMT
My error. Ipsos Mori had 63% against.
Depending on how the question is worded, one can get greater or smaller numbers in favour of unification, but the basic message from polling seems clear.
It would seem logical, though, that if Scotland gets a second referendum after Brexit, Northern Ireland should get a border poll. Let people decide if they want their future to be with the UK or the EU.
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nitory
Conservative
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Post by nitory on Mar 8, 2017 21:31:13 GMT
Thoroughly punished is a bit harsh since it took a unity unionist candidate to win through in Fermanagh and South Tyrone first past the post in 2015. More thoroughly punished than the unionists in 2016  Sinn Féin were down 1.0% nationally and the SDLP were down 2.6% nationally. They still lost Fermanagh and South Tyrone.  This just perfectly demonstrates how disastrous Foster has been for unionism, from nationalist malaise to even talk of a border poll in less than a year. In 2014-2016 nationalist turnout was decreasing and apathetic, while unionists turnout was on an adrenaline rush due to flegs. The demographics are destiny view by Sinn Fein wasn't coming to pass, with a leaflet in North Belfast with census figures only generating backlash. They were also stuck fighting a losing battle over welfare cuts and the DUP message in 2015 was a pragmatic 'elect us so we can weasel lots of pork barrel spending' while McGuinness was tying himself in knots saying our MPs were irrelevant for anything to do with government numbers but vote SF anyway to send an anti-austerity message. The 2016 Assembly elections had Sinn Féin and the SDLP vote share dropped 5% to the lowest level since 1992. Sinn Féin plastered the Nationalist areas of towns with "if you really want a united Ireland vote Sinn Fein" posters, the response to which at the ballot box was 'meh', while lunatic Trots were gaining traction in Republican heartlands but were of little consequence to anyone or anything beside the Sinn Féin and nationalist designated numbers. Sinn Féin were wedded to the institutions no matter how much it wasn't a partnership of equals, McGuinness biting his tongue until it looked like a dog's chew toy all in the name of Sinn Féin's southern project. The DUP decided to poke the bear once too often and then refused to back down. Now, the DUP's antics Sinn Fein have added 57,000 votes to last year's total, to give Foster a much deserved bloody nose. While I'm not at all fooled by Sinn Fein's attempts to show a softer image, it doesn't matter how many young women their vote management designs to top the poll or their cynical talk about equality. However, they have an awareness to try and be more appealing that most of unionism lacks. The fact the main party of unionism is losing a publicity battle with a party which still remains a secretive organisation that may answer to a criminal gang, commemorates killers, refuses to apologise for murdering their opponents and a campaign of ethnic cleansing along the border is bewildering. A border poll would still be won but the fact it's even being discussed is a damming indictment. Plus the bread and butter issues of a remain campaign are much less likely to wash now in the atmosphere Foster has created - Gerry Adam's Radical.Republican.Agenda. of an Irish language act and anti-corruption has many new recruits. Further emphasising census headcount politics was a disaster, as another election a few months ago showed... Alex Kane: Arlene Foster responsible for the worst unionist result in my lifetime |
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Mar 8, 2017 22:19:43 GMT
Hard to disagree. She turned the election into a referendum on her, and this was the outcome. 40% is not an unusually high vote share for Nationalist parties, but she gave them a new lease of life, and ensured that Unionists narrowly lost second seats that they should have narrowly held.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Mar 8, 2017 22:51:24 GMT
Again, and I stress, turnout was significantly up in nationalist areas and virtually unchanged in unionist areas in this election. Up 10% in North Down, up 11% in Strangford (Portaferry and Darragh Cross didn't manage that by themselves). Turnout was up everywhere. Only if you don't count TUV, Rodney Connor, or Sylvia Hermon as unionists. I think all of them might have a different opinion. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Mar 8, 2017 22:54:08 GMT
My euro-worth as someone who was born in and lives in Ireland: The provinces have been around for longer than that, although some counties (Clare, Cavan, Louth, Longford) were moved around between provinces in the 16th centuries. People in Ireland tend to identify with their localities and their counties before they identify with the provinces, but I would have said that Ulster (9 counties) and Connacht have pretty strong identities, with Munster weaker and Leinster (dominated by Dublin and not otherwise all that cohesive) bringing up the rear. And as someone who lives there, your thoughts on a federal Ireland to replace the republic and the statelet? Purely hypothetical unless (until?) the Tories truly manage to screw up Scotland and post-Brexit Northern Ireland, but the most likely constitutional scenario would be a reverse GFA, with Ireland and what's left of the UK swapping places. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Mar 8, 2017 23:39:34 GMT
I can't imagine there would be much demand for a Connacht or Munster parliament - and for a Leinster one even less. As it is the Irish political system, which is both highly, highly centralized and also decentralized, has managed to at least somewhat balance rural claims with Dublin's economic centrality. Decentralization here doesn't mean more local government, it means more power to local TDs to do things with government cash, a large proportion of which is made in Dublin. Also you can forget about putting the Rump Ulster into Northern Ireland for a reborn Ulster provincial government - that would have a Catholic majority (or is it near-majority? At least a plurality) overnight.
As for Ireland not having regional identities, that is hilarious. County identities are very strong here, but are not seen as contradictory to a wider 'Irish identity'. Which is not the case in Northern Ireland.
Anyway, I don't think this will happen any time soon despite Northern Ireland's constitutional position being somewhat complicated by Brexit and the increasing marginalization of political Unionism, which is constantly retreating to its fleggiest and die-hard-ist strongholds. But that's still 40% mind.
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joefaekemlin
SNP
I have been in or around the SNP since I was at primary school and a member since 1980
Posts: 147
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Post by joefaekemlin on Mar 9, 2017 22:45:33 GMT
I can't imagine there would be much demand for a Connacht or Munster parliament - and for a Leinster one even less. As it is the Irish political system, which is both highly, highly centralized and also decentralized, has managed to at least somewhat balance rural claims with Dublin's economic centrality. Decentralization here doesn't mean more local government, it means more power to local TDs to do things with government cash, a large proportion of which is made in Dublin. Also you can forget about putting the Rump Ulster into Northern Ireland for a reborn Ulster provincial government - that would have a Catholic majority (or is it near-majority? At least a plurality) overnight. As for Ireland not having regional identities, that is hilarious. County identities are very strong here, but are not seen as contradictory to a wider 'Irish identity'. Which is not the case in Northern Ireland. Anyway, I don't think this will happen any time soon despite Northern Ireland's constitutional position being somewhat complicated by Brexit and the increasing marginalization of political Unionism, which is constantly retreating to its fleggiest and die-hard-ist strongholds. But that's still 40% mind. Interesting. I just saw federalism as a Trojan horse towards a united Ireland. There, ive said it now. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Mar 9, 2017 23:10:34 GMT
In a United Ireland I'm pretty sure there would be a federalist system, but it would a federalist system of two units: the current RoI and NI. The Ancient Provinces would have nothing to do with it.
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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 10, 2017 14:58:41 GMT
In a United Ireland I'm pretty sure there would be a federalist system, but it would a federalist system of two units: the current RoI and NI. The Ancient Provinces would have nothing to do with it. Wouldn't it be an option to have meaningful local government on county basis? |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Mar 10, 2017 18:11:47 GMT
In a United Ireland I'm pretty sure there would be a federalist system, but it would a federalist system of two units: the current RoI and NI. The Ancient Provinces would have nothing to do with it. Wouldn't it be an option to have meaningful local government on county basis? Countries aren't tabula rasae which can be reconstructed at will. They are creations of history and institutions - and NI and RoI have been around for nearly a century now. In any way, UI there will have to be sort some of continuity. And besides, there is no chance the Irish government as it is would ever agree to giving the councils more power. They have practically none as it is. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 10, 2017 18:16:35 GMT
Wouldn't it be an option to have meaningful local government on county basis? Countries aren't tabula rasae which can be reconstructed at will. They are creations of history and institutions - and NI and RoI have been around for nearly a century now. In any way, UI there will have to be sort some of continuity. And besides, there is no chance the Irish government as it is would ever agree to giving the councils more power. They have practically none as it is. Yes, your last point would be the biggest obstacle I imagine. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 18:21:03 GMT
Wouldn't it be an option to have meaningful local government on county basis? Countries aren't tabula rasae which can be reconstructed at will. They are creations of history and institutions - and NI and RoI have been around for nearly a century now. In any way, UI there will have to be sort some of continuity. And besides, there is no chance the Irish government as it is would ever agree to giving the councils more power. They have practically none as it is. I suppose a border regulation with Derry, South Armagh and parts of South Down going to the "RoI continuity unit" would be a possibility in that case. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Mar 10, 2017 18:23:47 GMT
Wouldn't it be an option to have meaningful local government on county basis? Countries aren't tabula rasae which can be reconstructed at will. * tabulæ rasæ |
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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 10, 2017 20:24:13 GMT
In a UI, majority unionist areas cold obtain a "Plantation" reservation status just as there are Gaeltacht areas  Slicing off Derry and Newry, Mourne and Down would just be salami slicing. What next? Unless you go for a radical solution with a population exchange option: To NMD, add all of Derry and Strabane, Mid Ulster, and Fermanagh and Omagh districts, plus the former Armagh City and Limavady districts. Rest remains part of the UK. West Belfasters will have to leave the city if they can't stomach remaining in the UK. Same goes for unionists in the west in the other direction. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 20:48:06 GMT
In a UI, majority unionist areas cold obtain a "Plantation" reservation status just as there are Gaeltacht areas Slicing off Derry and Newry, Mourne and Down would just be salami slicing. What next? Unless you go for a radical solution with a population exchange option: To NMD, add all of Derry and Strabane, Mid Ulster, and Fermanagh and Omagh districts, plus the former Armagh City and Limavady districts. Rest remains part of the UK. West Belfasters will have to leave the city if they can't stomach remaining in the UK. Same goes for unionists in the west in the other direction. The UK wouldn't have any reason to keep a rump-NI. The main reason a UI is likely in the long term is economic advantages combined with lack of any British strategic and economic interest in the place. If we are in a scenario where a UI is possible (which would require a British government prepared to take a 100% "cold" rational view of the situation) repartition would make no sense. Slicing off areas with a strong Republican tradition and few Protestants is "border regulation", what you suggest is to create a new rump statelet with all the assorted problems. Belfast is on track to become majority Catholic, which makes any core protestant "Antrim/North Down + a bit" unit unfeasible. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 21:26:04 GMT
In a UI, majority unionist areas cold obtain a "Plantation" reservation status just as there are Gaeltacht areas Slicing off Derry and Newry, Mourne and Down would just be salami slicing. What next? Unless you go for a radical solution with a population exchange option: To NMD, add all of Derry and Strabane, Mid Ulster, and Fermanagh and Omagh districts, plus the former Armagh City and Limavady districts. Rest remains part of the UK. West Belfasters will have to leave the city if they can't stomach remaining in the UK. Same goes for unionists in the west in the other direction. The UK wouldn't have any reason to keep a rump-NI. The main reason a UI is likely in the long term is economic advantages combined with lack of any British strategic and economic interest in the place. If we are in a scenario where a UI is possible (which would require a British government prepared to take a 100% "cold" rational view of the situation) repartition would make no sense. Slicing off areas with a strong Republican tradition and few Protestants is "border regulation", what you suggest is to create a new rump statelet with all the assorted problems. Belfast is on track to become majority Catholic, which makes any core protestant "Antrim/North Down + a bit" unit unfeasible. Repartition would be a non-starter as far as all parties are concerned. Whatever happens to Northern Ireland, it's all or nothing. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 10, 2017 22:22:21 GMT
In a UI, majority unionist areas cold obtain a "Plantation" reservation status just as there are Gaeltacht areas Slicing off Derry and Newry, Mourne and Down would just be salami slicing. What next? Unless you go for a radical solution with a population exchange option: To NMD, add all of Derry and Strabane, Mid Ulster, and Fermanagh and Omagh districts, plus the former Armagh City and Limavady districts. Rest remains part of the UK. West Belfasters will have to leave the city if they can't stomach remaining in the UK. Same goes for unionists in the west in the other direction. The UK wouldn't have any reason to keep a rump-NI. The main reason a UI is likely in the long term is economic advantages combined with lack of any British strategic and economic interest in the place. If we are in a scenario where a UI is possible (which would require a British government prepared to take a 100% "cold" rational view of the situation) repartition would make no sense. Slicing off areas with a strong Republican tradition and few Protestants is "border regulation", what you suggest is to create a new rump statelet with all the assorted problems. Belfast is on track to become majority Catholic, which makes any core protestant "Antrim/North Down + a bit" unit unfeasible. NI is a ridiculous rump statelet already, and if you slice off NMD and Derry, you might as well slice off a bit more than that. I don't quite see the point of what you call border regulation. Next you'll be telling me Tyrone hasn't any strong Republican tradition. Slice off what I suggested, and make the rest an integral part of Scotland. Belfast can be divided up between Rangers and Celtic, so to speak. |
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