|
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 10:38:23 GMT
Wow! SNP are underperforming!! Every party in the developed world would ache to underperform that badly. You talk the worst form of relativism in these posts. So the SNP is not every time pulling in a yet better vote and having the very best results forever? No, of course not. It can't peak forever. That result was a crap one for Labour and there is no argument about it. Well they are up by around 7% from 2016 and 10% from the apparent "leaked" Labour forecast for the area. I am happy with that, all things considered. You are easily pleased! |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 10:40:43 GMT
They are only to start counting the Basing votes at mid-day!! Aye..................Let's nooo be rushin' matters..................................................................Time for a wee tincture I'm thinking. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 10:40:50 GMT
Yeah sure, let's just forget that 2015 and 2016 ever happened and let Scotland disappoint us all over again rather than face reality. You and Kezia Dugdale agree on that much at least  ! Wow! SNP are underperforming!! Every party in the developed world would ache to underperform that badly. You talk the worst form of relativism in these posts. So the SNP is not every time pulling in a yet better vote and having the very best results forever? No, of course not. It can't peak forever. That result was a crap one for Labour and there is no argument about it. I mean, for the Labour point of view, it's a good thing. SNP is not a peak anymore and it may be declining. So, obviously SNP opponents will see the upside. They see than if they manage to swing a few more points before May, they might lead there and it means a 2/1 Lab/SNP split instead of the reverse and it means they might manage to hold the Glasgow City Council if it's going better. In short, it's a good news for Labour since it means all is not lost for next year local elections. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2016 10:42:14 GMT
Wow! SNP are underperforming!! Every party in the developed world would ache to underperform that badly. You talk the worst form of relativism in these posts. So the SNP is not every time pulling in a yet better vote and having the very best results forever? No, of course not. It can't peak forever. That result was a crap one for Labour and there is no argument about it. I mean, for the Labour point of view, it's a good thing. SNP is not a peak anymore and it may be declining. So, obviously SNP opponents will see the upside. They see than if they manage to swing a few more points before May, they might lead there and it means a 2/1 Lab/SNP split instead of the reverse and it means they might manage to hold the Glasgow City Council if it's going better. In short, it's a good news for Labour since it means all is not lost for next year local elections. As I said above, I think Glasgow is lost - but other places still might not be. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 10:45:08 GMT
I mean, for the Labour point of view, it's a good thing. SNP is not a peak anymore and it may be declining. So, obviously SNP opponents will see the upside. They see than if they manage to swing a few more points before May, they might lead there and it means a 2/1 Lab/SNP split instead of the reverse and it means they might manage to hold the Glasgow City Council if it's going better. In short, it's a good news for Labour since it means all is not lost for next year local elections. As I said above, I think Glasgow is lost - but other places still might not be. I think it is lost too, but I was thinking SNP gain before, but now, I think more and more it could be NOC instead. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 10:48:44 GMT
Exmouth Brixington Con 425 EDA 324 LD 286 Con 41.1% (+4.7) IEDA 31.3% (+2.9) LD 27.6% (+8.7) |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 10:54:52 GMT
Seems the first elimination in Culloden is Independent Thomas Lamont (to the shock of no one, he wasn't local, being from the other side of Inverness).
|
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 7, 2016 11:01:08 GMT
Seems the first elimination in Culloden is Independent Thomas Lamont (to the shock of no one, he wasn't local, being from the other side of Inverness). Do you have a source? (Interested to see if I can find the 1st Preference vote shares anywhere)Â Lib dems are 30 votes ahead of the conservatives on first preferences. |
|
|
|
Post by edinburghtory on Oct 7, 2016 11:04:56 GMT
That's a good 1st preference result for Andrew and the Conservatives. Have done the math quickly in my head so probably wrong but that would put the Tory vote up by 10%. |
|
Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564 
|
Post by Sharon on Oct 7, 2016 11:14:29 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by thirdchill on Oct 7, 2016 11:21:07 GMT
I'm sensing a Lib Dem (or possibly Independent) gain here at the moment... Lib Dem seems more likely. One of the independents would have to attract a lot of the transfers to overtake both the conservatives and lib dems. The Lib Dems are transfer friendly so it is always possible. The gap might be too big though, unless the conservatives come third and a lot of their votes transfer to the LD's. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 11:25:47 GMT
| Count 1
|
| Count 2
|
| Count 3
|
| Count 4
|
| Count 5
|
| Count 6
|
| Count 7
|
| Count 8
| Munro (SNP)
| 753
| +2
| 755
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Robertson (LD)
| 463
| +1
| 464
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jarvie (Con)
| 439
| +3
| 442
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ross (Ind)
| 315
| +2
| 317
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacPherson (Ind)
| 274
| +11
| 285
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacLeod-O'Reilly (Grn)
| 180
| +2
| 182
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacKintosh (Lab)
| 163
| 0
| 163
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| McGrath (Ind)
| 158
| 0
| 158
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lamont (Ind)
| 23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 11:30:44 GMT
| Count 1
|
| Count 2
|
| Count 3
|
| Count 4
|
| Count 5
|
| Count 6
|
| Count 7
|
| Count 8
| Munro (SNP)
| 753
| +2
| 755
| +20
| 775
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Robertson (LD)
| 463
| +1
| 464
| +15
| 479
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jarvie (Con)
| 439
| +3
| 442
| +10
| 452
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ross (Ind)
| 315
| +2
| 317
| +13
| 330
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacPherson (Ind)
| 274
| +11
| 285
| +39
| 324
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacLeod-O'Reilly (Grn)
| 180
| +2
| 182
| +6
| 188
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacKintosh (Lab)
| 163
| 0
| 163
| +17
| 180
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| McGrath (Ind)
| 158
| 0
| 158
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lamont (Ind)
| 23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 7, 2016 11:41:49 GMT
That's quite a big gap to overhaul on transfers which are likely to scatter every which way...
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 7, 2016 11:47:03 GMT
That's quite a big gap to overhaul on transfers which are likely to scatter every which way... My thoughts are that a substantial part of the Labour and Conservative vote will transfer over to the Liberal Democrats. I'd guess the largest portion of the Conservative vote will be non-transferable by that stage. |
|
Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564
|
Post by Sharon on Oct 7, 2016 11:49:45 GMT
Another Labour loss...
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 11:51:26 GMT
| Count 1
|
| Count 2
|
| Count 3
|
| Count 4
|
| Count 5
|
| Count 6
|
| Count 7
|
| Count 8
| Munro (SNP)
| 753
| +2
| 755
| +20
| 775
| +21
| 796
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Robertson (LD)
| 463
| +1
| 464
| +15
| 479
| +36
| 515
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jarvie (Con)
| 439
| +3
| 442
| +10
| 452
| +16
| 468
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ross (Ind)
| 315
| +2
| 317
| +13
| 330
| +9
| 339
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacPherson (Ind)
| 274
| +11
| 285
| +39
| 324
| +22
| 346
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacLeod-O'Reilly (Grn)
| 180
| +2
| 182
| +6
| 188
| +21
| 209
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacKintosh (Lab)
| 163
| 0
| 163
| +17
| 180
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| McGrath (Ind)
| 158
| 0
| 158
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lamont (Ind)
| 23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-transferable
| 0
| +2
| 2
| +38
| 40
| +55
| 95
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2016 11:53:47 GMT
I would blame replacing a local candidate who tried and lost before winning by a non-local MSP staffer for the poor result. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 11:54:07 GMT
I dearly hope not but think it is a year or two too early for that Conservative revival to show through. If the Liberal Democats get knocked out over the Tories there's a bigger chance of the SNP candidate being elected as the Lib Dem vote probably won't transfer over to the Conservatives quite so strongly as the Conservative vote would transfer over to them... Probably true? But I am more interested in seeing a renascence of the Conservatives than facilitating the LDs. |
|
|
|
Post by philipchandler on Oct 7, 2016 11:55:55 GMT
Majority of Labour votes non-trasferrable, which is probably not good news for the Lib Dems. I don't know how the Independent votes will transfer, but looks likely to be a SNP-Lib Dem final round, all depends on how many Conservative votes are transferred.
|
|
!
