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Post by marksenior on Oct 9, 2016 12:34:34 GMT
We should also remember that in 2015 the 3 Conservatives were opposed by 1 EDA 1 LD and 1 Labour candidate . I expect there were quite a number of voters who gave 1 vote each to the 3 non Conservatives ( the number of votes cast will give a clue to how many ) , this will gave lowered the Conservative vote share and boosted that of the 3 other candidates .
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 9, 2016 14:16:31 GMT
We should also remember that in 2015 the 3 Conservatives were opposed by 1 EDA 1 LD and 1 Labour candidate . I expect there were quite a number of voters who gave 1 vote each to the 3 non Conservatives ( the number of votes cast will give a clue to how many ) , this will gave lowered the Conservative vote share and boosted that of the 3 other candidates . In 2015 there were 3,447 valid ballot papers. The highest placed Conservative secured votes from 47.7% of all those voting whilst the third place Conservative got 43.8% - this compared to the Conservative share of 41.1% on Thursday. However there may well have been votes for the individual rather than party. There were 3,447 x 3 = 10,341 total votes to be had in 2015 of which the Conservatives took 4,754. This leaves 5,587 remaining but only 2,869 were actually used. So simplifying matters a little, those voting Labour, Liberal Democrat and Independent used on average marginally more than 2 1½ of their 3 votes. How those split is really anybody's guess - even assuming the vast majority of Conservative votes came from "voting the slate" some of the others will have voted for all 3 non Conservative candidates, some 2 and others just 1 - although those at the 2015 count and taking notice may have a reasonable idea. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 9, 2016 15:05:38 GMT
That is a misunderstanding of how STV works.. The clue is in the S - SINGLE transferable vote. What you say is a confusion with the 3-up-at-once elections that often happen in England.
However I am extremely confused.... Surely the last local election in Culloden was in 2012 when the Tories put up just 1 candidate who got 4.8% of the first preference votes?? And a total of 3479 votes were cast?
When looking at that 2012 election the correct approach is to sum the votes for all the candidates of a party. The SNP put up 2 candidates totalling 27.33%. Hence the minimal swing this time. The others all only put up one candidate unless you want to count Independents as a Party
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Post by marksenior on Oct 9, 2016 15:10:51 GMT
We should also remember that in 2015 the 3 Conservatives were opposed by 1 EDA 1 LD and 1 Labour candidate . I expect there were quite a number of voters who gave 1 vote each to the 3 non Conservatives ( the number of votes cast will give a clue to how many ) , this will gave lowered the Conservative vote share and boosted that of the 3 other candidates . In 2105 there were 3,447 valid ballot papers. The highest placed Conservative secured votes from 47.7% of all those voting whilst the third place Conservative got 43.8% - this compared to the Conservative share of 41.1% on Thursday. However there may well have been votes for the individual rather than party. There were 3,447 x 3 = 10,341 total votes to be had in 2015 of which the Conservatives took 4,754. This leaves 5,587 remaining but only 2,869 were actually used. So simplifying matters a little, those voting Labour, Liberal Democrat and Independent used on average marginally more than 2 of their 3 votes. How those split is really anybody's guess - even assuming the vast majority of Conservative votes came from "voting the slate" some of the others will have voted for all 3 non Conservative candidates, some 2 and others just 1 - although those at the 2015 count and taking notice may have a reasonable idea. Thanks for that info , rather fewer voting for all 3 anti Conservatives than I would have expected . |
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tim13
Non-Aligned
Posts: 71 
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Post by tim13 on Oct 9, 2016 15:43:40 GMT
As Agent for all of GE, District and Town Candidates in Exmouth, as well as some Count agents being candidates ourselves, it was quite horrendous - we finished the count for the GE at around 7.30, and had to be back for 10.00 on Friday for the District Count. In the event the Town Council and Parish counts were delayed till 1pm. Everyone was shattered - Counting staff and Counting agents. This combination of elections had not happened since 1987, and at that time Exmouth did not have a Town Council. Never again!! As a party being thrashed to within an inch of its life, we didn't have much to cheer us up either. At least I retained my Town Council seat, although beaten at District level.
A long-winded way of saying, Middle Englander, that we did not take as much notice then as was needed to work out distribution of split votes.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 9, 2016 15:58:27 GMT
As Agent for all of GE, District and Town Candidates in Exmouth, as well as some Count agents being candidates ourselves, it was quite horrendous - we finished the count for the GE at around 7.30, and had to be back for 10.00 on Friday for the District Count. In the event the Town Council and Parish counts were delayed till 1pm. Everyone was shattered - Counting staff and Counting agents. This combination of elections had not happened since 1987, and at that time Exmouth did not have a Town Council. Never again!! As a party being thrashed to within an inch of its life, we didn't have much to cheer us up either. At least I retained my Town Council seat, although beaten at District level. A long-winded way of saying, Middle Englander, that we did not take as much notice then as was needed to work out distribution of split votes. You were lucky. The count for our District and Parish elections did not start until 1.00pm although it was after 6 pm before any of the Town / Parish counts started and after 8 pm before our small, late "letter" Parish commenced. It was after 10 pm before I got into our local pub some miles away with the official result. I thought the law until recently did not allow a Town / Parish election to be held at the same time as a General Election and District / County Election. Whilst combining it certainly boosted turnout for our Parish election, the administration chaos of the count took its toll!! |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 9, 2016 17:24:19 GMT
ah sorry, you were talking about Exmouth not Culloden! I was fooled by the amazingly similar number of votes cast!
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Oct 9, 2016 17:27:28 GMT
Parishes indeed could not hold elections on the same day as a general election until recently, but this was changed in time for the 2015 general.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 10, 2016 14:41:51 GMT
That is a misunderstanding of how STV works.. The clue is in the S - SINGLE transferable vote. What you say is a confusion with the 3-up-at-once elections that often happen in England. You haven't quoted anybody. Which bit are you responding to? |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 10, 2016 21:21:27 GMT
That is a misunderstanding of how STV works.. The clue is in the S - SINGLE transferable vote. What you say is a confusion with the 3-up-at-once elections that often happen in England. You haven't quoted anybody. Which bit are you responding to? Ignore it! foolish misunderstanding of which election middle-englander was talking about... Combined with not yet understanding how to post here! |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Nov 6, 2016 14:01:54 GMT
I don't suppose anyone has full transfer details from Garscadden? Still can't find them anywhere myself. I've emailed the council, but apparently they only aim to answer emailed questions "within 15 working days"...
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