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Post by edinburghtory on Oct 7, 2016 13:22:52 GMT
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Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
Posts: 2,122 
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 7, 2016 13:23:10 GMT
The LDs were clearly the most transfer-friendly party in 2007 across most of Scotland. That clearly wasn't the case in 2012, looks like they've got that back (or at least in areas like this, possibly not in other areas ) which could stand them in good stead next year. Indeed looking at the top 3 the transfers from 1st round to 7th round were: Lib Dem + 330 SNP + 217 Conservative +150 So Lib Dems have their inoffensive transfer friendly status back. Just a question of if enough Conservatives transferred to get them over the line this time... |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2016 13:23:38 GMT
Carlton
You see it like that... Others see it as false flag!
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Post by MeirionGwril on Oct 7, 2016 13:33:45 GMT
And just think, they'll soon Have Tony Blair for their new leader  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2016 13:34:55 GMT
And just think, they'll soon Have Tony Blair for their new leader Ha, he wishes (maybe) |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 7, 2016 13:39:55 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Basing - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 1,051 | 67.5% | +3.7% | +9.7% | +43.7% | -5.8% | Liberal Democrat | 323 | 20.7% | +8.3% | +7.2% | +14.0% | +8.0% | Labour | 184 | 11.8% | -0.1% | -2.0% | +4.6% | -2.2% | UKIP |
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| -11.9% | -14.9% | -15.6% |
| Independent |
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| -46.7% |
| Total votes |
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| 62% | 31% | 53% | 68% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2.3% since May and 6.9% since 2012 (when same 3-way contest) but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 1¼% since 2015 (2014 not meaningful)
Council now 37 Conservative, 19 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Forum, 1 Vacant
Bolton, Rumworth - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 2,125 | 76.9% | +4.6% | -0.5% | +4.1% | -1.6% | UKIP | 251 | 9.1% | -0.9% | from nowhere | -3.4% | from nowhere | Conservative | 167 | 6.0% | -4.4% | -6.6% | -2.0% | -3.6% | Green | 126 | 4.6% | -0.5% | -3.2% | -0.5% | -4.4% | Liberal Democrat | 96 | 3.5% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.8% | +0.6% | Total votes | 2,765 |
| 78% | 47% | 70% | 91% |
Swing where meaningful Conservative to Labour 4½% since May, 3% since 2015 and 2014 and 1% since 2012
Council now 37 Labour, 15 Conservative, 5 UKIP, 3 Liberal Democrat
Caerphilly, Gilfach - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2008 | since 2004 | Labour | 254 | 57.9% | -28.0% | -20.1% | -27.6% | Plaid Cymru | 150 | 34.2% | +20.0% | +12.1% | -19.6% | UKIP | 28 | 6.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 7 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 439 |
| 68% | 62% | 56% |
Swing Labour to Plaid Cymru ~24% since 2012 & 2004 and ~16% since 2008
Council now 48 Labour, 20 Plaid Cymru, 5 Independent
Caerphilly, Risca East - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 B | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | Labour | 400 | 58.9% | +14.5% | +1.6% | +2.9% | +17.4% | +18.0% | Plaid Cymru | 120 | 17.7% | +7.7% | -1.1% | +0.4% | -12.5% | -12.1% | UKIP | 117 | 17.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 42 | 6.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent 1 |
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| -25.1% | -24.0% | -26.7% | -28.4% | -29.3% | Independent 2 |
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| -17.5% |
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| Conservative |
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| -3.0% |
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| Total votes | 679 |
| 57% | 41% | 45% | 37% | 39% |
Swing not particularly meaningful apart from possibly Plaid Cymru to labour ~15% since 2008
Council now 48 Labour, 20 Plaid Cymru, 5 Independent
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 425 | 41.1% | +4.6% | +5.5% | +12.5% | +12.6% | Independent East Devon | 324 | 31.3% | +2.9% | +2.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 27.6% | +8.7% | +8.4% | +13.1% | +12.5% | Labour |
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| -16.2% | -16.5% | -12.0% | -12.5% | Independent |
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| -31.9% | -30.3% | UKIP |
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| -13.1% | -13.6% | Total votes | 1,035 |
| 23% | 23% | 37% | 39% |
Swing Independent East Devon Alliance to Conservative ~0.9% / 1½% since 2015
Council now 37 Conservative, 15 Independent Group, 6 Liberal Democrat, I Independent
Glasgow, Garscadden / Scotstounhill - SNP gain from Labour
- based on first preferences
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 2,135 | 42.6% | +15.6% | +19.6% | Labour | 1,944 | 38.8% | -22.8% | -17.8% | Conservative | 510 | 10.2% | +7.6% | +4.9% | Green | 242 | 4.8% | +2.1% | +0.9% | Liberal Democrat | 97 | 1.9% | +0.8% | -2.8% | UKIP | 83 | 1.7% | +0.8% | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -1.8% |
| Christian |
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| -1.6% |
| TUSC |
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| -0.4% |
| Glasgow 1st |
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| -0.3% |
| Solidarity |
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| -3.1% | Unionist |
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| -1.9% | Socialist |
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| -1.4% | Total votes | 5,011 |
| 61% | 49% |
Swing Labour to SNP ~19% since both 2012 and 2007
Council now 41 Labour, 30 SNP, 4 Green, 2 Independent, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat
Haringey, St Ann's - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,177 | 63.7% | +12.3% | +11.7% | +13.3% | +13.6% | Green | 323 | 17.5% | -3.8% | -1.7% | +8.7% | +8.7% | Liberal Democrat | 189 | 10.2% | +3.4% | +3.0% | -14.3% | -14.1% | Conservative | 106 | 5.7% | -1.3% | -0.9% | -6.5% | -6.8% | UKIP | 54 | 2.9% | -3.0% | -3.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -7.6% | -8.2% | -4.1% | -4.3% | Total votes | 1,849 |
| 52% | 60% | 38% | 40% |
Swing Green to Labour 8% / 6¾ since 2014 and if meaningful Liberal Democrat to Labour ~14% since 2010
Council now 49 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat
Hartlepool, Headland & Harbour - UKIP gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | | UKIP | 496 | 49.2% | +3.4% | +18.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 255 | 25.3% | -20.3% | -12.8% | -20.5% | -28.9% | -29.8% | Putting Hartlepool First | 155 | 15.4% | from nowhere | +2.3% | -22.6% | -21.9% | -22.3% | Conservative | 41 | 4.1% | -4.6% | -5.8% | -8.6% | -4.5% | -3.2% | Patients not Profit * | 36 | 3.6% | from nowhere | +0.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent ** | 26 | 2.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -5.1% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -3.5%
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| Total votes | 1,009
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| 75% | 35% | 69% | 72% | 75% |
* National Health Action candidate in 2015 ** Conservative candidate in 2015
Swing Labour to UKIP 11.9% since May and 15½% since 2015
Council now 20 Labour, 6 UKIP, 3 Conservative, 2 Putting Hartlepool First, 2 Independent
Highland, Culloden & Ardersier - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour - based on first preferences | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | SNP | 753 | 27.2% | -0.1% | -1.5% | Liberal Democrat | 463 | 16.7% | +2.9% | +2.5% | Conservative | 439 | 15.9% | +11.4% | +9.0% | Independent Ross | 315 | 11.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent MacPherson | 274 | 9.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 180 | 6.5% | +1.6% | from nowhere | Labour | 163 | 5.9% | -8.0% | -11.6% | Independent McGrath | 158 | 5.7% | +0.9% | from nowhere | Independent Lamont | 23 | 0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Winning Independent |
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| -29.7% | -28.1% | Previous Independents |
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| -1.0% | -4.6% | Total votes | 2,768 |
| 80% | 59% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 32 Independent, 19 SNP, 13 Liberal Democrat, 7 Labour, 6 Highland alliance, 3 Non-Aligned
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 13:45:37 GMT
Well done LDs with an excellent result. Whist disappointed that you pipped the Conservatives on Stage 1 it is acknowledged that you reap reward of years of work in a part of what in happier days was Danny Alexander's constituency. An MP I liked a lot.
Well done Conservatives from a lowish base. That was a fine effort and it bodes very well for next year.
The Labour result is car crash territory......Again.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2016 14:02:34 GMT
Most of the Tory non-transfers were probably independent votes that had been transferred to the Tories, or Tories to independents.. When you get to the 8th stage exhaustion does begin to set in!
In an election with no independents I think most Tory votes would have gone Lib Dem
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 14:04:01 GMT
Conservative transfers: TO SNP: 31 (3.6%) TO LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: 233 (39.6%) NOT TRANSFERRED: 325 (55.2%) It is tempting to ask Blue Team members here what they would have done in these circumstances? 1) To SNP because long term they are less of a threat than the LDs? The Devious and Practical. 2) To LDs in common cause of unionism and for former coalition partners and to ensure no chance of Labour holding or SNP winning. the Decent and Pragmatic. 3) No Transfer made as all other parties seen to be a threat and undeserving of a vote. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Oct 7, 2016 14:14:57 GMT
It is tempting to ask Blue Team members here what they would have done in these circumstances? 1) To SNP because long term they are less of a threat than the LDs? The Devious and Practical. 2) To LDs in common cause of unionism and for former coalition partners and to ensure no chance of Labour holding or SNP winning. the Decent and Pragmatic. 3) No Transfer made as all other parties seen to be a threat and undeserving of a vote. For the record in this by-election I would've gone: 1. Liberal Democrat 2. Conservative 3. Labour 4. UKIP 5. Unionist Independents (possibly ahead of UKIP depending on their policies) 6. Neutral Independents 7. Green 8. Nationalist Independents 9. SNP From what I can tell, Scottish local elections seem to use optional preferencing, so in that case why even give out any preferences below 6? |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 14:17:31 GMT
It is tempting to ask Blue Team members here what they would have done in these circumstances? 1) To SNP because long term they are less of a threat than the LDs? The Devious and Practical. 2) To LDs in common cause of unionism and for former coalition partners and to ensure no chance of Labour holding or SNP winning. the Decent and Pragmatic. 3) No Transfer made as all other parties seen to be a threat and undeserving of a vote. For the record in this by-election I would've gone: 1. Liberal Democrat 2. Conservative 3. Labour 4. UKIP 5. Unionist Independents (possibly ahead of UKIP depending on their policies) 6. Neutral Independents 7. Green 8. Nationalist Independents 9. SNP Yes I shall do so on your list which differs from actuality 1) UKIP 2) Conservative 3) Unionist Independent 4) Neutral Independent 5) LD 6) Nationalist Independent 7) SNP 8) Green 9) Labour |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 7, 2016 14:18:07 GMT
Most of the Tory non-transfers were probably independent votes that had been transferred to the Tories, or Tories to independents.. When you get to the 8th stage exhaustion does begin to set in! In an election with no independents I think most Tory votes would have gone Lib Dem My educated hunch/impression is that quite consistently across Scotland that Tory transfers favour the LDs more than any other party BUT they tend to transfer less than the votes for other parties (ie they usually have a higher proportion non-transferable). Neither of these are really all that surprising... |
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Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
Posts: 2,122
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 7, 2016 14:23:33 GMT
For the record in this by-election I would've gone: 1. Liberal Democrat 2. Conservative 3. Labour 4. UKIP 5. Unionist Independents (possibly ahead of UKIP depending on their policies) 6. Neutral Independents 7. Green 8. Nationalist Independents 9. SNP From what I can tell, Scottish local elections seem to use optional preferencing, so in that case why even give out any preferences below 6? No requirement to mark more than 1 candidate. However unless you genuinely have no preference between any 2 candidates it is also worth marking down to the second last candidate as it may be the final round is contested between your 2 least favourite options. In this 9 candidate election therefore it is worth marking down to 8. I tend to feel once I've got that far I may as well list the last person 9 as well. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Oct 7, 2016 14:28:57 GMT
From what I can tell, Scottish local elections seem to use optional preferencing, so in that case why even give out any preferences below 6? No requirement to mark more than 1 candidate. However unless you genuinely have no preference between any 2 candidates it is also worth marking down to the second last candidate as it may be the final round is contested between your 2 least favourite options. In this 9 candidate election therefore it is worth marking down to 8. I tend to feel once I've got that far I may as well list the last person 9 as well. Makes sense, though I personally would've likely only marked 5 candidates on my ballot paper, had I been voting in this election. 1. Labour 2. Liberal Democrat 3. & 4. Either Conservative or Unionist Independent, depending on policies 5. Neutral Independent |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 7, 2016 14:44:34 GMT
That was the most fun for the longest time of all weekly by-elections I can remember.
A lot of interest there for those who want to sift it.
UKIP are not dead and the Conservatives are on a come-back in Scotland.
The LDs still have that ability to just do it.
The SNP are still very solid but beatable.
Labour are in dire trouble except in a few strong points.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2016 15:18:49 GMT
I would transfer in the order of candidates I want to be elected.. Only really devious political types would try and second guess the process.. Real voters are not generally devious political types. At the moment Tory voters simply prefer the Unionist Lib Dems to the SNP, but they might like certain Independents more...
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2016 15:30:08 GMT
re. Optional preferencing:
It is easy to see that a few votes in this election could have been passed through all eight stages, so numbering less people is stupid unless you really don't care between them.
High preferences are really important though, particular in this AV by-election. If the Lib Dems had not got their nose ahead of the Tories at the start, the SNP would probably have won. As the number of people elected in a constituency in STV increases, this problem also decreases. The typically 3 member Scottish wards are really too small, since to do its job, STV should allow a choice between different candidates of each Party. That way the most effective councillors get elected. 6 is a good number, then all the serious parties will field at least 3
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Post by afleitch on Oct 7, 2016 16:18:58 GMT
The effects of STV is different when it's multi party remember. However don't be suprised to see Unionist parties tag team their way to unexpected wins on the final counts for the 3rd or 4th seat next year. And a crazy number of Labour-Tory coalitions which Labour are too damned stupid for their own good to know that's going to be bad for them in the long run.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 7, 2016 16:22:45 GMT
For the record in this by-election I would've gone: 1. Liberal Democrat 2. Conservative 3. Labour 4. UKIP 5. Unionist Independents (possibly ahead of UKIP depending on their policies) 6. Neutral Independents 7. Green 8. Nationalist Independents 9. SNP From what I can tell, Scottish local elections seem to use optional preferencing, so in that case why even give out any preferences below 6? Possibly because he's putting a post on a political forum for general interest and not actually filling in a real ballot paper? In fact, why bother to post anything at all as it's not going to count in an election? |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Oct 7, 2016 16:30:14 GMT
From what I can tell, Scottish local elections seem to use optional preferencing, so in that case why even give out any preferences below 6? No requirement to mark more than 1 candidate. However unless you genuinely have no preference between any 2 candidates it is also worth marking down to the second last candidate as it may be the final round is contested between your 2 least favourite options. In this 9 candidate election therefore it is worth marking down to 8. I tend to feel once I've got that far I may as well list the last person 9 as well. In most of Australia, where full preferencing is compulsory, I believe a ballot with all but one box marked is usually counted as a valid vote. |
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