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Post by warofdreams on Sept 4, 2017 20:40:02 GMT
I can't quickly find figures for 2017, but in 2015 there were only 14 seats where the Conservatives took over 60% of the vote. They are clearly safe (although Christchurch was lost in the 1993 by-election), but so are many others. Presuming you're including the Speaker in that 2015 figure? There will certainly be a lot more - perhaps more than 50. I know that South Holland and the Deepings had the highest Conservative vote in the country in June (and it didn't give the Conservatives 60%+ of the vote in 2015). Indeed all of Lincolnshire (bar Lincoln itself) gave the Conservatives more than 60% of the vote in June, having not done so in 2015 14 excluding the Speaker in 2015, according to www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/wvote.htmAnd I've now checked and make it 88 seats with the Conservatives over 60% this time - which must be the most in many years. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 21:25:49 GMT
Presuming you're including the Speaker in that 2015 figure? There will certainly be a lot more - perhaps more than 50. I know that South Holland and the Deepings had the highest Conservative vote in the country in June (and it didn't give the Conservatives 60%+ of the vote in 2015). Indeed all of Lincolnshire (bar Lincoln itself) gave the Conservatives more than 60% of the vote in June, having not done so in 2015 14 excluding the Speaker in 2015, according to www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/wvote.htmAnd I've now checked and make it 88 seats with the Conservatives over 60% this time - which must be the most in many years. Not sure it will be the most in many years (depending of course on how you define many). After all, though the Conservatives got their highest vote share since 1979 (if you include the Speaker as a Conservative) across Great Britain, in England the Conservative performance was "relatively" poor. It was only the Conservatives best vote share in England since 1987. (I've put relatively in inverted commas because, although 2017 was only the Conservatives best vote share in England since 1987, the 2017 English Conservative vote share was still better that any English Labour vote share since 1966.) I always count the Speaker under the party with which he/she was elected. In any event, even if Labour had stood a candidate in Buckingham, everyone knows that in the circumstances of the 2017 General election, when the Conservatives were very popular, the Conservatives would have easily got more than 60% of the vote in Buckingham. |
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Post by warofdreams on Sept 4, 2017 22:56:29 GMT
Conservatives were over 60% in fewer than 50 seats in England in 1987, and roughly 40 in 1983 and 1979, so that is part of the explanation as to why it is so hard to find any surprise losses in these seats.
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 23:11:36 GMT
Conservatives were over 60% in fewer than 50 seats in England in 1987, and roughly 40 in 1983 and 1979, so that is part of the explanation as to why it is so hard to find any surprise losses in these seats. Thanks for those figures. They are very interesting and extremely surprising indeed considering that the Conservative English vote share was better in the 1980s than in 2017. 1970 must surely have a good chance of beating the 88 seats of 2017? |
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Post by warofdreams on Sept 4, 2017 23:19:01 GMT
Conservatives were over 60% in fewer than 50 seats in England in 1987, and roughly 40 in 1983 and 1979, so that is part of the explanation as to why it is so hard to find any surprise losses in these seats. Thanks for those figures. They are very interesting and extremely surprising indeed considering that the Conservative English vote share was better in the 1980s than in 2017. 1970 must surely have a good chance of beating the 88 seats of 2017? Only 43 in England in 1970 (also Glasgow Hillhead). Historically, the Conservative's vote has been much better distributed than Labour's. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 23:43:16 GMT
Thanks for those figures. They are very interesting and extremely surprising indeed considering that the Conservative English vote share was better in the 1980s than in 2017. 1970 must surely have a good chance of beating the 88 seats of 2017? Only 43 in England in 1970 (also Glasgow Hillhead). Historically, the Conservative's vote has been much better distributed than Labour's. 2017 must be the highest for a very long time - possibly since the end of Second World War - in that case. It's quite incredible when you think how popular the English Conservative Party has been/is and yet there are relatively few parts of the country where they are overwhelmingly dominant. It's still the case that the Conservative vote is much more effectively distributed than the Labour vote (only really in the Blair years - and particularly 2005 - was the Conservative vote inefficient). |
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Sept 5, 2017 0:46:06 GMT
Presuming you're including the Speaker in that 2015 figure? There will certainly be a lot more - perhaps more than 50. I know that South Holland and the Deepings had the highest Conservative vote in the country in June (and it didn't give the Conservatives 60%+ of the vote in 2015). Indeed all of Lincolnshire (bar Lincoln itself) gave the Conservatives more than 60% of the vote in June, having not done so in 2015 14 excluding the Speaker in 2015, according to www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/wvote.htmAnd I've now checked and make it 88 seats with the Conservatives over 60% this time - which must be the most in many years. I make it 91 Conservative seats (inc. speaker) at 60% or above for '17 GE: Wiltshire South West (60.0) to South Holland & the Deepings (69.9). Compared to 116 Labour seats: Sheffield Heeley (60.0) to Liverpool Walton (85.7). |
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Post by warofdreams on Sept 5, 2017 1:01:59 GMT
South West Wiltshire rounds to 60.0 but is slightly under, as is Tewkesbury, I suspect the discrepancy lies there.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2017 8:23:24 GMT
Labour got 80% in more seats in 2017 (10) than it did in 1997 (2)
The seats where Labour got 80%+ in 1997 were Bootle and Easington.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2017 10:14:30 GMT
And I think you have to go back to the second 1974 GE to find the previous instance (Liverpool Scotland Exchange)
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Sept 5, 2017 10:34:53 GMT
And 2017 surely also had more sub-1,000 majorities than did 1997?
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 5, 2017 20:42:26 GMT
Allow me:
Majorities of 9 or lower: SNP 1 (Fife North East)
Majorities of 99 or lower: Lab 4, SNP 4, Con 2, Plaid 1
Majorities of 999 or lower: Lab 19, Con 17, SNP 9, Lib Dem 2, Plaid 2
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Post by johnloony on Sept 6, 2017 1:29:59 GMT
David Dimbleby mentioned "Jame Dill Knight"
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Post by chorleyboy on Sept 6, 2017 16:23:08 GMT
David Dimbleby mentioned "Jame Dill Knight" You forgot the (sic). 😂 |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 27, 2017 16:54:50 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on Dec 27, 2017 19:01:45 GMT
Absolutely. It is inconsistent more than anything else for BBC Parliament not to mark an anniversary of a general election. In a way, it's quite ironic given that we could have had a Conservative landslide this June. I'm now doubtful that I'll see one in my lifetime. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 28, 2017 22:41:35 GMT
I'm watching the BBC's 1994 Euro election coverage for the first time since its original broadcast, but I'm not sure whether it's okay to put it on YouTube. Probably not.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 28, 2017 22:57:11 GMT
I'm watching the BBC's 1994 Euro election coverage for the first time since its original broadcast, but I'm not sure whether it's okay to put it on YouTube. Probably not. Why on earth not? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Dec 28, 2017 23:15:10 GMT
I'm watching the BBC's 1994 Euro election coverage for the first time since its original broadcast, but I'm not sure whether it's okay to put it on YouTube. Probably not. I think you should ...  |
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Post by swanarcadian on Dec 29, 2017 6:06:47 GMT
I'm watching the BBC's 1994 Euro election coverage for the first time since its original broadcast, but I'm not sure whether it's okay to put it on YouTube. Probably not. Putting up coverage from several other elections doesn't seem to have caused many issues, I don't see why you shouldn't. |
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