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Post by chorleyboy on Sept 3, 2017 19:47:13 GMT
The replay on BBC Parliament will start at 9.00am and carry on until 11.00pm (therefore clashing with University Challenge) Presumably University Challenge will be repeated on Saturday 9 September at some point so all is not lost 😂. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2017 19:49:02 GMT
Presumably University Challenge will be repeated on Saturday 9 September at some point so all is not lost 😂. Didn't know that! 😛 |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 3, 2017 20:32:07 GMT
Presumably University Challenge will be repeated on Saturday 9 September at some point so all is not lost 😂. Didn't know that! 😛 Neither did I! Apparently the Saturday repeat is at 1615 on BBC2 (1630 in Scotland). I'll be watching UC on catchup as I play quiz league on Monday evenings. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 4, 2017 10:57:09 GMT
The BBC's current repeat of Election 97 appears to be from the clean feed recording, which omits the onscreen graphics showing the constituency results. Therefore I'm thinking of uploading my original recording which shows what viewers that night would actually have seen.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 4, 2017 11:02:47 GMT
Yes, I noticed that on a previous showing. Somebody - it may have been our own AndyAJS? - put the "as live" programme on YouTube a few years back.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2017 12:10:46 GMT
Yes, I noticed that on a previous showing. Somebody - it may have been our own AndyAJS? - put the "as live" programme on YouTube a few years back. I always enjoy seeing the results flash up - especially in 2015 and 2017 - this is no fun!!  |
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Post by chorleyboy on Sept 4, 2017 14:09:52 GMT
Apparently (according to Wikipedia), they did the same thing last time this was shown. I do remember (I was still up for Portillo) that Chorley was one of the last gains before Labour reached the winning line.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 4, 2017 14:12:46 GMT
Apparently (according to Wikipedia), they did the same thing last time this was shown. I do remember (I was still up for Portillo) that Chorley was one of the last gains before Labour reached the winning line. Chorley was the 324th Labour seat to declare - Labour won its majority four minutes later with North West Leicestershire. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 14:30:09 GMT
Apparently (according to Wikipedia), they did the same thing last time this was shown. I do remember (I was still up for Portillo) that Chorley was one of the last gains before Labour reached the winning line. Chorley was the 324th Labour seat to declare - Labour won its majority four minutes later with North West Leicestershire. North West Leicestershire is now looking like an increasingly secure Conservative seat. It doesn't quite fall into my definition of "safe seat" as the Conservatives didn't get 60% of the vote but it will surely only be a matter of time before the Conservatives achieve that milestone. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 4, 2017 14:53:45 GMT
Chorley was the 324th Labour seat to declare - Labour won its majority four minutes later with North West Leicestershire. North West Leicestershire is now looking like an increasingly secure Conservative seat. It doesn't quite fall into my definition of "safe seat" as the Conservatives didn't get 60% of the vote but it will surely only be a matter of time before the Conservatives achieve that milestone. It must be worth noting that even >=60% vote shares can be overturned at the next election, c.f. Rhondda at the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 15:03:14 GMT
North West Leicestershire is now looking like an increasingly secure Conservative seat. It doesn't quite fall into my definition of "safe seat" as the Conservatives didn't get 60% of the vote but it will surely only be a matter of time before the Conservatives achieve that milestone. It must be worth noting that even >=60% vote shares can be overturned at the next election, c.f. Rhondda at the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections. It is very unusual in England for the Conservatives or Labour to lose a seat in a General election where they got 60% or more of the vote at the preceding General election. There are obviously examples (Brent East 2005) but it is very rare in England. Welsh and Scottish politics are very different from English politics (i.e. a lot more unstable) which is why I confine my 60% definition regarding "safe seats" to England only. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 15:09:06 GMT
It must be worth noting that even >=60% vote shares can be overturned at the next election, c.f. Rhondda at the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections. There has (to the best of my knowledge) never been an occasion in England where the Conservatives or Labour have lost a seat in a General election where they got 60% or more of the vote at the preceding General election. No doubt someone will be able to dig up some obscure example, but I'm pretty confident it hasn't happened for a very long time in England. Welsh and Scottish politics are very different from English politics (i.e. a lot more unstable) which is why I confine my 60% definition regarding "safe seats" to England only. Actually Brent East is an example. But still the general rule is very strong in England. I'm not sure when was the last time Conservatives lost an English seat in a general election where they got 60%+ of the vote at the preceding general election. |
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Post by warofdreams on Sept 4, 2017 15:35:46 GMT
There has (to the best of my knowledge) never been an occasion in England where the Conservatives or Labour have lost a seat in a General election where they got 60% or more of the vote at the preceding General election. No doubt someone will be able to dig up some obscure example, but I'm pretty confident it hasn't happened for a very long time in England. Welsh and Scottish politics are very different from English politics (i.e. a lot more unstable) which is why I confine my 60% definition regarding "safe seats" to England only. Actually Brent East is an example. But still the general rule is very strong in England. I'm not sure when was the last time Conservatives lost an English seat in a general election where they got 60%+ of the vote at the preceding general election. I can't quickly find figures for 2017, but in 2015 there were only 14 seats where the Conservatives took over 60% of the vote. They are clearly safe (although Christchurch was lost in the 1993 by-election), but so are many others. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 15:48:58 GMT
Actually Brent East is an example. But still the general rule is very strong in England. I'm not sure when was the last time Conservatives lost an English seat in a general election where they got 60%+ of the vote at the preceding general election. , but in 2015 there were only 14 seats where the Conservatives took over 60% of the vote. They are clearly safe (although Christchurch was lost in the 1993 by-election), but so are many others. Presuming you're including the Speaker in that 2015 figure? There will certainly be a lot more - perhaps more than 50. I know that South Holland and the Deepings had the highest Conservative vote in the country in June (and it didn't give the Conservatives 60%+ of the vote in 2015). Indeed all of Lincolnshire (bar Lincoln itself) gave the Conservatives more than 60% of the vote in June, having not done so in 2015 |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2017 17:46:40 GMT
There has (to the best of my knowledge) never been an occasion in England where the Conservatives or Labour have lost a seat in a General election where they got 60% or more of the vote at the preceding General election. No doubt someone will be able to dig up some obscure example, but I'm pretty confident it hasn't happened for a very long time in England. Welsh and Scottish politics are very different from English politics (i.e. a lot more unstable) which is why I confine my 60% definition regarding "safe seats" to England only. Actually Brent East is an example. But still the general rule is very strong in England. I'm not sure when was the last time Conservatives lost an English seat in a general election where they got 60%+ of the vote at the preceding general election. That's very interesting. I can only think of Banff & Buchan but of course it was the SNP who got 60% there in 2015. Bermondsey/Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983. Labour got 63% in Bermondsey in 1979. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 18:22:46 GMT
Actually Brent East is an example. But still the general rule is very strong in England. I'm not sure when was the last time Conservatives lost an English seat in a general election where they got 60%+ of the vote at the preceding general election. That's very interesting. I can only think of Banff & Buchan but of course it was the SNP who got 60% there in 2015. Bermondsey/Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983. Labour got 63% in Bermondsey in 1979. Yes Southwark and Bermondsey would be another one - though the boundary changes made it slightly less monolithic for Labour they would still almost certainly have got more than 60% of the vote in 1979. But the only two examples we've found where Labour/Conservatives have lost an English seat in a General election where they got more than 60% of the vote at the previous General election have been when there have been by-elections in the intervening period. I don't know whether there is an example when there hasn't been a by-election in between. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2017 18:26:47 GMT
That's very interesting. I can only think of Banff & Buchan but of course it was the SNP who got 60% there in 2015. Bermondsey/Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983. Labour got 63% in Bermondsey in 1979. Yes Southwark and Bermondsey would be another one - though the boundary changes made it slightly less monolithic for Labour they would still almost certainly have got more than 60% of the vote in 1979. But the only two examples we've found where Labour/Conservatives have lost an English seat in a General election where they got more than 60% of the vote at the previous General election have been when there have been by-elections in the intervening period. I don't know whether there is an example when there hasn't been a by-election in between. I would've thought possibly Tatton but it seems not. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 4, 2017 18:33:02 GMT
Yes Southwark and Bermondsey would be another one - though the boundary changes made it slightly less monolithic for Labour they would still almost certainly have got more than 60% of the vote in 1979. But the only two examples we've found where Labour/Conservatives have lost an English seat in a General election where they got more than 60% of the vote at the previous General election have been when there have been by-elections in the intervening period. I don't know whether there is an example when there hasn't been a by-election in between. I would've thought possibly Tatton but it seems not. Well the 1997 boundary changes were very favourable to the Conservatives in Tatton - Alderley Edge (a Conservative fortress) was moved in from Macclesfield and Northwich (which is probably Labour in a even year) was transferred to Weaver Vale. Whether those favourable changes would have been enough to push the Conservatives over 60% in the seat in 1992 is another matter. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2017 18:54:09 GMT
I would've thought possibly Tatton but it seems not. Well the 1997 boundary changes were very favourable to the Conservatives in Tatton - Alderley Edge (a Conservative fortress) was moved in from Macclesfield and Northwich (which is probably Labour in a even year) was transferred to Weaver Vale. Whether those favourable changes would have been enough to push the Conservatives over 60% in the seat in 1992 is another matter. Right. According to these notional figures, the Conservatives would've got over 60% in Tatton on its 1997 boundaries in the 1992 election. 2001election.megasorcery.com/pcon570.htmSo we have an example of a seat where the Conservatives got 60% and lost at the next election. |
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Post by warofdreams on Sept 4, 2017 20:32:44 GMT
That's very interesting. I can only think of Banff & Buchan but of course it was the SNP who got 60% there in 2015. Bermondsey/Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983. Labour got 63% in Bermondsey in 1979. Yes Southwark and Bermondsey would be another one - though the boundary changes made it slightly less monolithic for Labour they would still almost certainly have got more than 60% of the vote in 1979. But the only two examples we've found where Labour/Conservatives have lost an English seat in a General election where they got more than 60% of the vote at the previous General election have been when there have been by-elections in the intervening period. I don't know whether there is an example when there hasn't been a by-election in between. Blyth in February 1974, lost by Labour in special circumstances but no intervening by-election. There were certainly seats the Conservatives lost in 1945 where they had more than 60% in 1935. Since then, the most I can find (without considering notionals), even with a by-election, is Isle of Ely, where they took 59.9% in 1970, lost the 1973 by-election and failed to hold in February 1974. |
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