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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 25, 2020 21:51:25 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 25, 2020 22:12:09 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 26, 2020 11:50:57 GMT
thank you very much!  |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 26, 2020 13:23:31 GMT
Will we be getting a Harry Hayfield tweeting exercise for these repeats? You most certainly will, I am compiling the Conservative / Labour battlegrounds, the Liberal target list and because of what happens in Scotland, an SNP target list. Update: I have just finished correcting the 1970 notionals based on the information published here and the totals for Great Britain (not Northern Ireland for obvious reasons) are: Conservatives 12,744,054 votes (46.18%) winning 337 seats Labour 12,124,750 votes (43.94%) winning 279 seats Liberals 2,111,903 votes (7.65%) winning 5 seats Scottish National Party 309,100 votes (1.12%) winning 1 seat Plaid Cymru 174,928 votes (0.63%) winning 0 seats Other Parties 130,381 votes (0.47%) winning 1 seat Conservative lead of 619,304 votes (2.24%) with an overall majority of 39 Will you be providing further details? The BBC quoted Con 338 (inc. 8UUs) Lab 284 (not inc. Soton Itchen) Lib 6 for the 1970 notionals and ITN had (more or less) the same outcome (if there had been more time the TV Times would have included more details). Thanks to swanarcadian uploading the BBC figures a few years ago and the ITN figures being available via UK Data it's possible after 'careful selection' to reach 331-284-5 although Jeremy Thorpe would probably have held the enlarged Devon North in 1970. It's possible that both sets of experts counted in fractions of seats like today's exit polls but assuming not:-               |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 26, 2020 14:11:59 GMT
The figures I have come up with are based on a file where the constituency names are abbreviations of them (for instance Worcestershire South comes out as Worcs South) but where they came from I really cannot tell. Once the election has happened on Friday it should be easy to tell which ones are wrong (as in Lab GAIN Crewe and Nantwich in 1983 wrong) and therefore be able to produce a good estimate of the real notional 1974 figures.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 28, 2020 6:36:43 GMT
Wrt to YouTube removing stuff, I notice a load of Spitting Image has gone, no doubt time to coincide with the the relaunch.
If anyone has it, I'd be grateful for the Tory conference rendition of Jerusalem: it has Milton Keynes at the end.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 28, 2020 9:05:40 GMT
Wrt to YouTube removing stuff, I notice a load of Spitting Image has gone, no doubt time to coincide with the the relaunch. If anyone has it, I'd be grateful for the Tory conference rendition of Jerusalem: it has Milton Keynes at the end. One of my uploads was a Party Political Broadcast which Spitting Image made for the Labour Party in 1996 (just after the end of the series). That was removed because ITV plc claimed copyright - and it's noted as "Spitting Image Manual Claim". It's possibly disputable because I doubt ITV owned the copyright - under copyright law it would be owned by the organisation which commissioned it, and the production company. But I suspect the 'manual claim' means they went through systematically removing things. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 29, 2020 16:30:48 GMT
From the Radio Times Feb 28th 1974:
Con. Lab or Lib
Who's going to be your MP?
Who's going to govern Britain?
You'll know first with the BBC and Alastair Burnet.
As the polls close, the result of three how-did-you-vote surveys in key constituencies will be the earliest guide to the story of the night: Is it Conservative or Labour for the next five years, or could Liberal hold the power? Nobody will be watching early developments more than the party leaders:
The Prime Minister, Rt Hon Edward Heath in his constituency, Sidcup with DAVID DIMBLEBY
Rt Hon Harold Wilson in Huyton with MICHAEL CHARLTON
Rt Hon Jeremy Thorpe in Devon North With DAVID LOMAX
The first declaration is expected from Newcastle Central, Guildford, Cheltenham or Salford. Whichever it is, the Election 74 camera unit recording the result will start the fullest, fastest results service... analysis... prediction... and explanation of what it's going to mean to Britain and to you. Alastair Burnet leads the coverage from the Election 74 studio with David Butler explaining the detail behind each result, watching especially for the key marginal constituency results, Graham Pyatt interrogating the computer as it instantaneously relates each vote to the national trend, Robert McKenzie keeping the score (the State of the Parties), seeking the clues, statistically and intuitively, to the name of the next Prime Minister and Robin Day interviewing those making the news and those particularly affected by the news.
Outside broadcast units will be at the most important declarations throughout the night... inside the party headquarters in London... and with the crowds watching the results on the BBC's giant TV screen in Trafalgar Square.
Area reports from the BBC's local TV Newsrooms at 10.55; 12.55; 1.55; 2.55; 3.55
Designer BRIAN ELLIS Graphics ALAN JEAPES
Co-ordination MARY KEENE and ROSEMARY TULLY Producer TAM FRY
Director KEITH CLEMENT Editor MIKE TOWNSON
The RADIO TIMES Election Guide - which lists all 635 constituencies - starts on page 12. It includes the BBC Election Research Unit's own analysis of the 347 'new' seats where, as a result of Boundary Commission changes, a significant proportion of the electorate has changed since the 1970 Election. Alastair Burnet : page 3
Election People: pages 4-5 Robin Day's Choice: page 5
Election 74 on the air again at 6.0 am
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 29, 2020 16:34:54 GMT
Same for Radio Times Oct 10th 1974:
Here is the Result ...
Alastair Burnet heads into night-long action again the team who were first with the right prediction (and fastest with the results) of the February election.
David Butler explaining the detail behind each result.
Graham Pyatt interrogating the computer as it instantly relates each vote to the national trend
Robert McKenzie keeping the score
and Robin Day interviewing the winners - and the losers.
Together, they present from the Election 74 studio the most comprehensive coverage to this most unpredictable election... the fullest results service... analysis... prediction... and explanation of what it's going to mean to Britain - and to you.
Who will be the next Prime Minister? Within minutes of the polls closing, BBCtv's national how-did-you-vote survey will be the earliest guide to the decisive question, Labour or Conservative for the next five years - or what?
Who will be your MP? The first declaration is expected from Newcastle Central, Guildford, Cheltenham or Salford. Whichever it is, Election 74 cameras will be there - and at the rest of the most important declarations through the night... inside the party head-quarters in London... and with the crowds watching the result on the BBC's giant TV screen in Trafalgar Square.
Nobody will be watching the developments more than the party leaders:
The Prime Minister
Rt Hon Harold Wilson in his constituency, Huyton with Michael Charlton
Rt Hon Edward Heath in Sidcup with David Dimbleby
Rt Hon Jeremy Thorpe in Devon North with David Lomax
Area reports from the BBC's local TV Newsrooms at 10.55; 11.55; 12.55; 1.55; 2.55; 3.55
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 29, 2020 17:57:31 GMT
Thinking of Newcastle Central and its tiny electorate...if Heath had asked the Boundary Commission to update their report in 1970 the outcome in February 1974 may have been a bit better for him. Also if the Libs had managed a full slate at that election their vote may have touched seven million and that may have disproportionately hurt the Tories (eating into their second places in safe Labour seats) and possibly let Labour top the popular vote.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 29, 2020 18:09:09 GMT
Thinking of Newcastle Central and its tiny electorate...if Heath had asked the Boundary Commission to update their report in 1970 the outcome in February 1974 may have been a bit better for him. Also if the Libs had managed a full slate at that election their vote may have touched seven million and that may have disproportionately hurt the Tories (eating into their second places in safe Labour seats) and possibly let Labour top the popular vote. yes I could see that happening. the feb 74 boundaries were based on 1964 data weren't they? |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 29, 2020 18:16:13 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 29, 2020 19:52:46 GMT
Thinking of Newcastle Central and its tiny electorate...if Heath had asked the Boundary Commission to update their report in 1970 the outcome in February 1974 may have been a bit better for him. Also if the Libs had managed a full slate at that election their vote may have touched seven million and that may have disproportionately hurt the Tories (eating into their second places in safe Labour seats) and possibly let Labour top the popular vote. yes I could see that happening. the feb 74 boundaries were based on 1964 data weren't they? 1965 but slum clearance had a dramatic effect upon some seats. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 29, 2020 20:54:44 GMT
I always get the impression that probably through to 1979, maybe 1983, the bulk of the BBC team did not trust or like opinion polling full stop; McKenzie would devote entire segments to showing where the polling was wrong, Day would let people like Anthony Howard gloat in the polling errors, and, in 1974, Burnet was completely disdainful of them. It was only Butler, who was probably agnostic at best (perhaps because of his work overseas, particularly Australia where he worked on the ABC election coverage) who was not totally dismissive of their worth. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 30, 2020 13:47:56 GMT
I always get the impression that probably through to 1979, maybe 1983, the bulk of the BBC team did not trust or like opinion polling full stop; McKenzie would devote entire segments to showing where the polling was wrong, Day would let people like Anthony Howard gloat in the polling errors, and, in 1974, Burnet was completely disdainful of them. It was only Butler, who was probably agnostic at best (perhaps because of his work overseas, particularly Australia where he worked on the ABC election coverage) who was not totally dismissive of their worth. Sir Robin Day grilled a pollster on one of the election night programmes and quite openly suggested that he thought that the banning of opinion polls might be a good idea. In general opinion polls get ignored by the BBC nowadays in the same way that by-elections do. I saw a BBC News clip from 1991 recently and one of the headlines was that a poll showing the Tories with a small lead had been released. The last time I can remember regular opinion poll figures being discussed on news bulletins outside of a general election period was about 2008, when Labour under Brown briefly closed the gap after the financial crash. The decline in psephological discussion isn't just limited to election night programmes, alas. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 30, 2020 14:05:53 GMT
Interesting little curiosity, the Returning Officer in Jeremy Thorpe’s Devon North constituency was Lt Col Pine-Coffin (awesome name); in the 1980’s I helped secure funding for a group providing IT training to unemployed disabled people whose CEO was Peter Pine-Coffin - has to be related surely?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 30, 2020 14:10:12 GMT
I always get the impression that probably through to 1979, maybe 1983, the bulk of the BBC team did not trust or like opinion polling full stop; McKenzie would devote entire segments to showing where the polling was wrong, Day would let people like Anthony Howard gloat in the polling errors, and, in 1974, Burnet was completely disdainful of them. It was only Butler, who was probably agnostic at best (perhaps because of his work overseas, particularly Australia where he worked on the ABC election coverage) who was not totally dismissive of their worth. Sir Robin Day grilled a pollster on one of the election night programmes and quite openly suggested that he thought that the banning of opinion polls might be a good idea. In general opinion polls get ignored by the BBC nowadays in the same way that by-elections do. I saw a BBC News clip from 1991 recently and one of the headlines was that a poll showing the Tories with a small lead had been released. The last time I can remember regular opinion poll figures being discussed on news bulletins outside of a general election period was about 2008, when Labour under Brown briefly closed the gap after the financial crash. The decline in psephological discussion isn't just limited to election night programmes, alas. That programme where he suggests banning polling is tomorrow! BBC after 1992 freaked out over voting intention polls |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 30, 2020 15:50:45 GMT
Interesting little curiosity, the Returning Officer in Jeremy Thorpe’s Devon North constituency was Lt Col Pine-Coffin (awesome name); in the 1980’s I helped secure funding for a group providing IT training to unemployed disabled people whose CEO was Peter Pine-Coffin - has to be related surely? Somebody needs to undertake a little research  It seems you may need to head off to a place called Fairy Lodge.... |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 30, 2020 16:01:50 GMT
Interesting little curiosity, the Returning Officer in Jeremy Thorpe’s Devon North constituency was Lt Col Pine-Coffin (awesome name); in the 1980’s I helped secure funding for a group providing IT training to unemployed disabled people whose CEO was Peter Pine-Coffin - has to be related surely? Somebody needs to undertake a little research It seems you may need to head off to a place called Fairy Lodge.... I’ve actually tried, but the only online presence for Peter P-C requires me to subscribe to LinkedIn, which probably wouldn’t tell me much about his family history anyway. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 30, 2020 16:17:15 GMT
Interesting little curiosity, the Returning Officer in Jeremy Thorpe’s Devon North constituency was Lt Col Pine-Coffin (awesome name); in the 1980’s I helped secure funding for a group providing IT training to unemployed disabled people whose CEO was Peter Pine-Coffin - has to be related surely? Somebody needs to undertake a little research It seems you may need to head off to a place called Fairy Lodge....
The connection between the Pine and the Coffin families began with the marriage of Edward Pine and Dorothy Coffin at Alwington Church in 1671.Their grandson,Rev John Pine inherited the estate and by Act of Parliament in 1797 assumed the name and arms of Coffin. source
There's a daily telgraph obituary about lt col john pine coffin, died 2006, behind paywall, the likely returning officer I think as he was high sherrif of Devon source
So they weren't brothers but due to the uniqueness of the name will likely be related.
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