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Post by casualobserver on Sept 9, 2016 14:09:34 GMT
Kent and (to only a slighter lesser degree) Essex do seem to be clear exceptions to the general recent UKIP retreat. I wasn't surprised that UKIP retained Shepway South but I feel that the unusual (for much of Kent) demographics of this particular ward says a lot about where UKIP is retaining its support in the County. There's a widespread expectation of significant Conservative gains from UKIP in Kent next May, but clearly any UKIP weakness is far from uniform across the County. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 9, 2016 21:27:09 GMT
This is what Momentum in Sheffield were doing at 8.30 last night Well done, Jezbollah. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 9, 2016 21:30:49 GMT
This is what Momentum in Sheffield were doing at 8.30 last night Well done, Jezbollah. Tweeting whilst Sheffield burned. Oh what an artist dies with them! |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 10, 2016 2:26:52 GMT
Just checked on a map for the respective locations of Mosborough and Stocksbridge. My response can only be summarised as "LOL WUT"  Was there really nobody else more suitable for Labour?? I suspect it's more a case of being in the correct faction/knowing the good people/CLP refusing to approve other serious candidates than her. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 10, 2016 11:32:22 GMT
Interesting difference between the results in Kinson & Shepway - not too dissimilar demographically, and both places Labour would have won comfortably in past years. In Kinson Labour advanced substantially at UKIP's expense. In Shepway UKIP consolidated their hold. Kent does seem to be going its own way, not for the first time in recent years. Demographics may well have a clearly noticeable effect, but judging by some of the posts of Pimpernal it could also be stronger and better organisation locally as well. UKIP could do with that level of organisation being replicated across the country. |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Sept 10, 2016 15:27:28 GMT
There's a widespread expectation of significant Conservative gains from UKIP in Kent next May, but clearly any UKIP weakness is far from uniform across the County. Significant? Care to give a measure of what would constitute 'significant'? Given 7 of our Councillors are from Thanet, but bearing in mind the significant boundary changes, I'd say 1 or possibly 2 could go Tory. The others are more vulnerable to a Labour attack. 3 are from Swale - I think Swale UKIP could return anything between 1 and 7 here... but maintaining 3 is realistic - where the 3 come from is a different story, and here I think the Tories could gain 2 from Labour rather than from UKIP. Folkestone and Shepway area - we have 3 now having lost Romney Marsh. UKIP continued to gain seats in 2015 at a local level, but I honestly do not know how we will do there in the County elections. Labour won't be in serious contention however, so possibly 3 to return to the Tories - but maybe not. The Tunbridge Wells seat looks very vulnerable on paper - not sure what the local factors may be, but electorally T Wells has gone from being the area we made our breakthrough in to becoming one of our weakest areas. Finally, the Herne Bay sets due to boundary changes are hard to call, but again the Tories will benefit rather than Labour. That makes a possible 7 gains from UKIP, but there are a few seats where we could make progress in the other direction - depending on how well the Labour vote stands up in those areas. 7 would be significant - nearly half our current representation. But it could be the upper levels of gains. We could also take several seats from Labour too, and I wouldn't be surprised to see our representation remain in double figures. Labour could fall to single figures however, as boundary changes have not been kind to them, whilst the Lib Dems may struggle in any area their sitting Cllr is standing down - though so far I am not aware of any planning to do so. The Canterbury seats strike me as the more vulnerable and these could be Tory gains. Sadly I think the Green Cllr will struggle to hold his seat as the ward has been split into 2 new areas and they aren't particularly favourable despite the good reputation the Green has established. Maybe I ought to cut and paste this into the Kent section... |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 11, 2016 9:21:04 GMT
Barrow-in-Furness, Parkside - Labour hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 317 | 52.1% | -3.0% | -4.8% | -1.8% | -2.7% | Conservative | 257 | 42.3% | -2.6% | -0.8% | +10.9% | +12.5% | UKIP | 34 | 5.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -14.7% | -15.4% | Total votes | 608 |
| 27% | 30% | 38% | 40% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ¼% / 2% since 2015 and 6¼% / 7½% since 2011
Council now 28 Labour, 8 Conservative
Maidstone, Shepway South - UKIP hold
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2010 | | UKIP * | 432 | 45.0% | +6.8% | +1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 215 | 22.4% | -5.3% | +0.1% | -5.7% | -16.6% | Labour | 183 | 19.1% | -5.7% | -8.4% | -25.2% | -7.5% | Independent | 88 | 9.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat ** | 41 | 4.3% | -1.6% | -2.0% | from nowhere | -23.0% | Green |
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| -2.1% |
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| English Democrat |
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| -1.2% |
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| Previous Independents |
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| -27.6% | -7.0% | Total | 959 |
| 82% | 78% | 102% | 40% |
* winning candidate was former Conservative Councillor for another ward
** vote as per Council's website, others have it as 37 Swing Conservative to UKIP 6% since May and ½% (if meaningful) since 2014 Council now 23 Conservative, 22 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent, 3 UKIP, 2 Labour
Mansfield, Yeoman Hill - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | | Labour | 278 | 45.7% | -4.5% | +0.6% | MIF * | 148 | 24.3% | -25.5% | -5.0% | UKIP | 105 | 17.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 41 | 6.7% | from nowhere | -5.2% | Independent | 36 | 5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -6.9% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -6.7% | Total votes | 608 |
| 42% | 69% |
* Mansfield Independent Forum
Swing MIF to Labour 10½% since 2015 and 2¾% since 2011 Council now 17 Labour, 17 MIF, 2 UKIP with a MIF elected Mayor
Sheffield, Mosborough - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Liberal Democrat * | 1,711 | 45.6% | +31.8% | +31.9% | +34.2% | +32.2% | +21.2% | Labour | 1,279 | 34.1% | -9.2% | -8.6% | -8.3% | -5.8% | -20.0% | UKIP | 466 | 12.4% | -9.8% | -9.2% | -11.1% | -18.1% | +1.1% | Conservative | 229 | 6.1% | -7.9% | -9.0% | -12.1% | -4.5% | -0.4% | Green | 67 | 1.8% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -2.6% | -1.9% | TUSC |
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| -3.5% | -3.7% | -1.2% | -1.1% |
| Total votes | 3,752 |
| 82% | 88% | 44% | 81% | 82% |
* winning candidate was Councillor for the ward 2008 to 2012 Swing (if meaningful as UKIP was second apart from 2012) was ~20% since 2016, 2015, 2014 and 2012. Council now 56 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 4 UKIP
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 11, 2016 13:38:36 GMT
Significant? Care to give a measure of what would constitute 'significant'? I had in mind 5 or 6....... I'm encouraged to see that you think it could be higher County-wide! I think Swale UKIP could return anything between 1 and 7 here LOL. Given that there are only seven councillors in total, your prediction of 1-7 UKIP County Councillors in Swale isn't easy to argue against! I'd go towards the lower end of your expectations, much though I'd personally prefer the final result to be outside your predicted range! |
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observer
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Post by observer on Sept 11, 2016 14:32:55 GMT
I think the pattern is quite clear - as with the Lib Dems, UKIP only poll well when they work the ward (the same is true but to a lesser extent with Lab and Con).
Back in 2013/14 UKIP polled well with non-existent campaigns. They now have to try harder but there isn't the experienced activist base that the Lib Dems, for example, have. I've actually heard candidates say that they ONLY want to campaign on national issues with 'of that pavement politics shit'.
The party nationally needs to provide some intensive training for branches/activists. As Shepway shows, where UKIP fight hard they can still win.
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Post by David Ashforth on Sept 11, 2016 17:11:35 GMT
Regarding the Mosborough ward result and that the Liberal Democrat candidate (now councillor) was local and the Labour candidate wasn't.
The previous Labour councillor wasn't local either.
Ranmoor is in Fulwood ward (Sheffield Hallam), about 9 miles from Mosborough. That's nearer than Labour's by-election candidate who lives in Stocksbridge (about 17 miles) but hardly local.
While the Liberal Democrat candidate being local, and a former councillor for the ward, and the Labour candidate living so far away must have affected the result it can't explain the size of the swing, especially when you consider that Mosborough ward has recently (May this year) elected a non-local Labour councillor.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 11, 2016 17:20:37 GMT
While the Liberal Democrat candidate being local, and a former councillor for the ward, and the Labour candidate living so far away must have affected the result it can't explain the size of the swing, especially when you consider that Mosborough ward has recently (May this year) elected a non-local Labour councillor. May's election was an all-up and almost everywhere voted for the slate. Plus, the obvious LibDem by-election all-hands-to-the-pumps campaign where they can put in the resources that would otherwise have been working in Hallam seats. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 11, 2016 17:25:58 GMT
Stocksbridge is regarded as a separate town by those who live there. It votes largely with Barnsley wards for parliamentary purposes.
From what I have heard she was a poor Labour candidate and a mate of the dreadful Angela Smith MP. She fought a campaign where she was openly hostile to the party leader. Locally clearly the LibDems made the most of it because this is certainly not a typical vote for any party in recent weeks. Can't say I blame them and the selection certainly needs some investigation
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Sept 11, 2016 17:51:31 GMT
While the Liberal Democrat candidate being local, and a former councillor for the ward, and the Labour candidate living so far away must have affected the result it can't explain the size of the swing, especially when you consider that Mosborough ward has recently (May this year) elected a non-local Labour councillor. May's election was an all-up and almost everywhere voted for the slate. Plus, the obvious LibDem by-election all-hands-to-the-pumps campaign where they can put in the resources that would otherwise have been working in Hallam seats. If only labour had had 40 or so activists to pitch in and help |
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Post by David Ashforth on Sept 11, 2016 17:54:39 GMT
May's election was an all-up and almost everywhere voted for the slate. Plus, the obvious LibDem by-election all-hands-to-the-pumps campaign where they can put in the resources that would otherwise have been working in Hallam seats. If only labour had had 40 or so activists to pitch in and help You beat me to it! |
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Post by David Ashforth on Sept 11, 2016 18:11:58 GMT
Stocksbridge is regarded as a separate town by those who live there. It votes largely with Barnsley wards for parliamentary purposes. From what I have heard she was a poor Labour candidate and a mate of the dreadful Angela Smith MP. She fought a campaign where she was openly hostile to the party leader. Locally clearly the LibDems made the most of it because this is certainly not a typical vote for any party in recent weeks. Can't say I blame them and the selection certainly needs some investigation You are correct that Stocksbridge see itself as being separate from Sheffield. But I'm not sure why how Stocksbridge sees itself should influence the voters of Mosborough. What you say about the Labour candidate being openly hostile to Jeremy Corbyn is interesting. I saw this on Twitter but I don't want to place too much reliance on one tweet. Regarding Angela Smith, perhaps if you'd joined me in campaigning during the 2010 general election the result in Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been different and we both might be happier.  |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 11, 2016 18:56:22 GMT
Mosborough views itself as a separate town as well.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 11, 2016 21:48:37 GMT
Mosborough views itself as a separate town as well. And one 16 miles away from Stocksbridge. Own goal from us. It happens! |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 11, 2016 21:50:35 GMT
Regarding Angela Smith, perhaps if you'd joined me in campaigning during the 2010 general election the result in Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been different and we both might be happier. Though I think our idea of who should replace her might well not be very similar. I think she is the sort of MP deselection was invented for. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 11, 2016 22:44:50 GMT
You know, 25 years ago when Angela Smith and I were both in Cambridge Labour Students, I was in roughly the same place I am now. Angela Smith was clearly on the left - not as far as the Campaign Group, but certainly not among the proto-Blair wing which was already forming.
PS: The most prominent member who was on the Campaign Group/Labour Briefing wing became Chairman of Torbay Liberal Democrats.
PPS: The most prominent member who was on the proto-Blair wing is now a Hayekian free-marketeer.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 11, 2016 23:00:22 GMT
Mosborough views itself as a separate town as well. Which is why is was such a blinding own goal. You'd think a "we're our own town, we don't like Sheffield imposing their will on us" Stocksbridge local would have realised the consequences of going up against exactly the same attitude in Mosborough. |
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