By-elections - September 8th

[maxque]

Parkside – Barrow-in-Furness BC – Susan Opie (Labour) died. She was a councillor since 2011.

2015: Lab 1259/1106/1073, Con 1026/708
2011: Lab 863/857/787, Con 503/444/414, Ind 235
2010: Lab 1411, Con 746, LD 472, BNP 113
2008: Ind 495/476, LD 420, Lab 403/390/375, Con 371/300/299

In 2011, Barrow switched from elections by third to all-ups.

Lee Roberts (Labour Party Candidate)
Colin Rudd (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Roy Worthington (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Shepway South – Maidstone BC – Dave Sargeant (UKIP) died. He was a councillor since 2014 and was their group leader.
2014-2018 term

2016: UKIP 448, Con 325, Lab 290, LD 69, Grn 25, ED 14
2014: UKIP 542, Lab 339, Con 275, LD 77
2012: Lab 418, Con 265, Ind 260
2010: Con 928, LD 649, Lab 632, Ind 167
2008: Con 525, Lab 324, LD 163
Dec 07 by: Con 251, Lab 240, LD 173, Grn 34
2006: Lab 397, Con 386, UKIP 148, LD 140
2004: Lab 453, Con 390, UKIP 231, LD 140
2002: Lab 578/516, Con 388

John Barned (UKIP)
Milden Choongo (Liberal Democrat)
Jon Hicks (Independent)
Bob Hinder (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Dan Wilkinson (Labour Party)

Yeoman Hill – Mansfield DC – Lee Probert (Labour) died. She was a councillor since 2015, worked for Mencap and was the Mental Health Champion of the Council.

2015: Lab 721, Mansfield Independent Forum 716
2011: Lab 399, Mansfield Independent Forum 259, Con 106, TUSC 61, LD 59

John Coxhead (Labour Party)
David Hamilton (UK Independence Party)
Daniel Redfern (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Philip Shields (Independent)
Neil Williams (Mansfield Independent Forum)

Mosborough – Sheffield MBC – Isobel Bowler (Labour) died. She was a councillor since 2010 and was the Cabinet member for Neighbourhoods and the chair of the Police and Crime Panel of South Yorkshire.
2016-2018 term

2016: Lab 1992/1833/1661, UKIP 1022/831, Con 646, LD 636/586/532, TUSC 159, Grn 142/138/122
2015: Lab 3639, UKIP 2024, Con 1565, LD 980, Grn 281, TUSC 99
2014: Lab 1844, UKIP 1414, LD 620, Con 492, Grn 205, TUSC 52
2012: Lab 2463, LD 1113, UKIP 518, Con 297, Grn 166
2011: Lab 3069, LD 1762, Con 608, Grn 248
2010: Lab 3270, LD 3013, Con 1506, BNP 473, UKIP 307, Grn 126
2008: LD 2451/2019, Lab 1660/1626, Con 746/561, Grn 290
2007: Lab 1859, LD 1510, Con 685, UKIP 248, Grn 161
2006: Lab 1623, LD 1125, Con 696, UKIP 308, Grn 224
2004: Lab 2350/2038/1977, LD 1531/1193/1077, Con 1204/1156/1129, Grn 451

Julie Grocutt (Labour Party)
Joanne Parkin (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Gail Smith (Liberal Democrats)
Andrew Taylor (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Julie White (Green Party)

[John Chanin]

These 4 make a real test for Labour - something more interesting this week.

[The Bishop]

Indeed - given the recent results in Gravesend and Stockton, Labour will do well to hold all of these.

[lancastrian]

Labour will be helped by split opposition in Mansfield, and the Conservative candidate in Barrow is the one who only got 708 votes in 2015, rather than the one who was close behind Labour.

[andrewteale]

There are some appallingly early deaths in this week's polls. Bowler was 51, Probert 52.

[casualobserver]

Sept 5, 2016 10:04:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Indeed - given the recent results in Gravesend and Stockton, Labour will do well to hold all of these.

I'd be very surprised if Labour failed to keep all of the three seats they are defending this week. The split opposition in Mansfield, the large majority in Sheffield (over an increasingly anaemic UKIP) and the history of local election results in Barrow when not held at the same time as the GE must make Labour a short odds-on favourite in all 3. I'd go so far as to say that the loss of any one of these three seats would be a catastrophic signal for Labour. In fact, Labour could well end up this week making a gain, as Shepway South was always, in years gone by, a Labour banker in Maidstone .... I'd forgotten the Con victories there in 07-10 which seem quite anomalous knowing that area reasonably well.

[The Bishop]

Though of course Barrow is now more unpredictable than ever because of the Trident thing being so salient.

There have been a couple of previous by-elections there since the GE - one good for Labour, the other less so.

[David Ashforth]

	Ward maps	Census maps
BURROW-IN-FURNESS - Parkside	link	link
MAIDSTONE - Shepway South	link	link
MANSFIELD - Yeoman Hill	link	link
SHEFFIELD - Mosborough	link	link

[David Ashforth]

"...because the by-election will take place on September 8th during the Labour leadership campaign when all the forces of the ruling class, including the Blairites inside the Labour Party, are trying to remove Jeremy Corbyn, and because many Labour members and supporters will identify Labour with its leader rather than its anti-Corbyn candidate, on this occasion TUSC has decided not to stand. We do not want to divide or distract from our role in the mass campaign to get Jeremy re-elected on an anti-austerity ticket, i.e. through the petitioning and stalls we have been doing almost daily in the centre of Sheffield."

[finsobruce]

Sept 5, 2016 12:40:01 GMT The Bishop said:

Though of course Barrow is now more unpredictable than ever because of the Trident thing being so salient.

There have been a couple of previous by-elections there since the GE - one good for Labour, the other less so.

and your top tip for this one?

*slides imaginary fiver across virtual table*

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 5, 2016 14:57:51 GMT David Ashforth said:

"...because the by-election will take place on September 8th during the Labour leadership campaign when all the forces of the ruling class, including the Blairites inside the Labour Party, are trying to remove Jeremy Corbyn, and because many Labour members and supporters will identify Labour with its leader rather than its anti-Corbyn candidate, on this occasion TUSC has decided not to stand. We do not want to divide or distract from our role in the mass campaign to get Jeremy re-elected on an anti-austerity ticket, i.e. through the petitioning and stalls we have been doing almost daily in the centre of Sheffield."

That will be of great comfort to the Labour candidate and agent I'm sure.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mansfield, Yeoman Hill:

Electorate 2,592; votes verified 609; turnout 23.9%.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Not sure if this is official but if so, Sheffield Mosborough is a Liberal Democrat gain.

[marksenior]

Labour hold Mansfield Yeoman Hill

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BARROW-IN-FURNESS Parkside

Lee Roberts (Labour Party Candidate) 317
Roy Worthington (The Conservative Party Candidate) 257
Colin Rudd (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 34

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 8, 2016 22:01:31 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not sure if this is official but if so, Sheffield Mosborough is a Liberal Democrat gain.

Bloody hell, not sure I can believe that.

I'm going to have to stay up to find out now

[Robert Waller]

Yeoman Hill (Mansfield) result:
LAB: 45.7% (-4.5)
MIF: 24.3% (-25.5)
UKIP: 17.3% (+17.3)
CON: 6.7% (+6.7)
IND: 5.9% (+5.9)

[andrewteale]

Sept 8, 2016 22:21:07 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 8, 2016 22:01:31 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not sure if this is official but if so, Sheffield Mosborough is a Liberal Democrat gain.

Bloody hell, not sure I can believe that.

I'm going to have to stay up to find out now

If the explosion on my Twitter is anything to go by, it's official.

One of my FB friends (a Lib Dem councillor) has pointed out to me that

a Teale preview of "this used to be Labour v Lib Dem, but now it's Labour v AN Other" is turning into a bit of a lucky charm...

[ColinJ]

Sept 8, 2016 22:21:07 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 8, 2016 22:01:31 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not sure if this is official but if so, Sheffield Mosborough is a Liberal Democrat gain.

Bloody hell, not sure I can believe that.

I'm going to have to stay up to find out now

Nothing would surprise me given the condition of the Labour Party these days. However, I am surprised that the ballot boxes have been delivered to the counting centre, the papers verified and counted, all by 10.59 pm. (Unless Sheffield is the new Sunderland.)

[Robert Waller]

UKIP HOLD Shepway South (Maidstone).