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Post by hullenedge on May 5, 2021 12:53:31 GMT
1929 seat changes:- (Copied from a Pilot Guide. Purple - Ind gains, some 'paper gains' including Epping).
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Post by hullenedge on May 8, 2021 17:17:50 GMT
Jumping the gun but no shocks expected. South Pennines (Bradford - Calderdale - Kirklees) top winners for 2021:-
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 8, 2021 19:13:43 GMT
Bradford = South Pennines?
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Post by hullenedge on May 13, 2021 21:58:50 GMT
The Liberal performance in 1950. Nine wins (gold) plus another 147 saved deposits (yellow) and 319 lost deposits (chocolate):-
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Post by hullenedge on May 14, 2021 13:41:32 GMT
Tory likely/possible gains in 1950:-
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Post by hullenedge on May 14, 2021 21:23:46 GMT
The 1970 electorates (darker colours oversized by 25%, lighter colours undersized by 25%):-
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Post by andrewteale on May 14, 2021 21:33:14 GMT
Buckinghamshire 2021. C 113 LD 15 Wycombe Ind 6 Ind 6 Lab 4 Independent Network 2 Grn 1. New council. Split divisions in 2021 were: Aylesbury East: 2C/1LD Beaconsfield: 2C/1Ind Bernwood: 1Grn/2C Booker, Cressex and Castlefield: 2Lab/1C Buckingham West: 1Lab/2C Chiltern Ridges: 2C/1LD Downley: 2C/1Lab Hazlemere: 2C/1Ind Iver: 1Ind/2C West Wycombe: 2IndNwk/1C Wing: 2C/1LD I have also redrawn the 2017 Buckinghamshire CC maps on LEAP to fix a typing error.
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Post by hullenedge on May 15, 2021 21:25:18 GMT
1970 relative to 1955 (after regression). A bit crude and some results are mathematical flukes but a general picture.
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Post by andrewteale on May 16, 2021 14:30:46 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2021 15:10:08 GMT
1970 relative to 1955 (after regression). A bit crude and some results are mathematical flukes but a general picture. Please do 2015 relative to 1992
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Post by hullenedge on May 18, 2021 14:52:08 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on May 18, 2021 15:34:02 GMT
Surely nothing at all to do with how the UK or the people voted but purely how MPs voted and thus tells one very little at all other than party strengths at the time give or take some exceptions on an MP personal level. But is says nothing at all about Britain as long before opinion polling.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 18, 2021 16:04:00 GMT
Given the large number of Liberal MPs who voted against Home Rule were to some extent under constituency pressure, it does tell you something about the regional spread. For instance why were so many Liberal MPs in the south west inclined to Unionism while those in Yorkshire were Home Rulers?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 18, 2021 17:35:43 GMT
..Cornwall and Devon were strongly influenced by the impact of the Irish Home Rule question. This was not a matter of reaction against Irish immigrants, for there were virtually none in the region. Rather, it was a reaction to the strategic dangers of having an alien Power so close at hand to its exposed coasts - and the strongest feeling must have been among the large maritime population. Social Geography of British Elections 1885-1910
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 18, 2021 17:50:41 GMT
Indeed and he goes on to note that the Unionists in the south west included some of the most radical of Liberals - some who were for the direct veto, the most extreme temperance demand, which put them at the very extreme end of politics.
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Post by afleitch on May 18, 2021 18:37:07 GMT
Interesting east/west split in Scotland too.
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Post by hullenedge on May 19, 2021 11:49:13 GMT
Something a bit different. Constituencies grouped by city/town classification and their deviation from Steed swing. (Blue = swing to Con17/Con19 better then group, Red = Lab17/Lab19, Yellow = Con17/Lab19 and Purple = Lab17/Con19):- commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8322/
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Post by andrewteale on May 19, 2021 14:28:41 GMT
Swindon 2021. Changes based on 2016: C gain from Lab Central Liden, Eldene and Park South Lydiard and Freshbrook Penhill and Upper Stratton Rodbourne Cheney Lab gain from LD Eastcott The Conservatives also gained a by-election seat in Wroughton and Chiseldon from the Liberal Democrats. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Central is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2022. Liden, Eldene and Park South is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2022. Old Town is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2022. Penhill and Upper Stratton is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2022. Rodbourne Cheney is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2022.
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Post by hullenedge on May 20, 2021 9:51:56 GMT
Labour's peaks during the last four elections (yellow = 2010, purple = 2015, red = 2017, blue = 2019) using winning/losing ratio formula:-
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,026
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Post by ilerda on May 20, 2021 10:39:11 GMT
Labour's peaks during the last four elections (yellow = 2010, purple = 2015, red = 2017, blue = 2019) using winning/losing ratio formula:- This is very interesting. And shows that all of my so-called Purple Bricks seats (can't remember which thread that was on, maybe this one?) are amongst the few English seats where Labour haven't been able to match their 2010 performance since.
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