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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 20, 2021 10:45:18 GMT
Might be interesting to add 2005 (notional) figures to that mix.
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Post by hullenedge on May 20, 2021 11:08:44 GMT
Might be interesting to add 2005 (notional) figures to that mix. Ok, of the 2010 'peaks' 94 flip to 2005 (notional & real) whilst 34 remain 2010, for the 2015 'peaks' 49 flip to 2005 whilst 36 remain 2015, for the 2017 'peaks' 194 flip to 2005 whilst 182 remain 2017 and for the 2019 'peaks' three flip to 2005 whilst 40 remain 2019. Labour's 'peaks' number:- 2005 -340 seats 2010 - 34 seats 2015 - 36 seats 2017 - 182 seats 2019 - 40 seats.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 20, 2021 11:49:01 GMT
Surely nothing at all to do with how the UK or the people voted but purely how MPs voted and thus tells one very little at all other than party strengths at the time give or take some exceptions on an MP personal level. But is says nothing at all about Britain as long before opinion polling. I think the map is actually the 1886 election result but filtered through the prism of the Home Rule question to treat the Liberal and nationalist supporters as one. For example South Londonderry is shown with a Liberal Unionist MP - that was an election gain defeating Tim Healy. (It also doesn't include post petition results. e.g. Londonderry City where the sitting Conservative's three vote majority was overturned and the nationalists gained the seat.) It's not unusual to see such maps from the time with the filter of the key political issue of the day as the focus which often smoothed over the edges of the less organised nature of parties at the time.
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Post by hullenedge on May 21, 2021 13:53:35 GMT
The Liberal performance in 1979 after regression (over=gold):-
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Post by andrewteale on May 22, 2021 13:26:18 GMT
Kirklees 2021. Changes based on 2016: C gain from Lab Denby Dale C gain from LD Lindley Lab gain from LD Golcar The by-election seat in Golcar was a Lib Dem gain from Labour. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Almondbury is 2LD/1C and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2022. Colne Valley is 3Lab but the Conservatives have gained a seat in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2022.
Denby Dale is 3C but Labour have gained a seat in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2022. Dewsbury East is 2Lab/1 Heavy Woollen District Independent and Labour are defending in 2022. Golcar is 2Lab/1LD but the Lib Dems have gained a second seat in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2022. Holme Valley South is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2022. Lindley is 2LD/1C and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2022.
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Post by hullenedge on May 23, 2021 11:07:34 GMT
The 1970 General Election - 39 constituencies that did not return a Tory MP although ranked in the top 322 for % of professional/managerial electors (1966 sample census, correlation in 1970 = 0.8, very high) v 39 constituencies with a lower ranking (1966 sample census) that did vote Conservative. Con "gains":- NOTTINGHAM SOUTH BLACKPOOL SOUTH READING BURY and RADCLIFFE KEIGHLEY BUCKINGHAM MANCHESTER, MOSS SIDE BRISTOL NORTH EAST OLDBURY and HALESOWEN BOLTON WEST NORFOLK SOUTH WEST CHORLEY PETERBOROUGH LANCASTER BIRMINGHAM, SELLY OAK WELLINGBOROUGH BRIGHTON, KEMPTOWN PORTSMOUTH SOUTH FAVERSHAM IPSWICH PRESTON NORTH WREKIN, THE CLAPHAM GILLINGHAM ROCHESTER and CHATHAM CANNOCK BURTON BOSWORTH DERBYSHIRE SOUTH EAST LUTON NELSON and COLNE BIRMINGHAM, HANDSWORTH GLOUCESTER BOLTON EAST BIRMINGHAM, YARDLEY BIRMINGHAM, PERRY BARR LEICESTER SOUTH WEST PRESTON SOUTH PLYMOUTH, DEVONPORT Con "losses":- CORNWALL NORTH CARDIGAN DEVON NORTH SWANSEA WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE EAST EALING NORTH ANGLESEY HITCHIN WOOLWICH WEST PUTNEY RUGBY INVERNESS BRENTFORD and CHISWICK HOLBORN and ST. PANCRAS SOUTH MERIONETH MONTGOMERY ROXBURGH, SELKIRK and PEEBLES WATFORD HUDDERSFIELD WEST BERWICK and EAST LOTHIAN CAERNARVON ORKNEY and SHETLAND RUTHERGLEN WILLESDEN EAST COLNE VALLEY LOUGHBOROUGH LEWISHAM NORTH COVENTRY SOUTH DULWICH RENFREWSHIRE WEST LANARK ROMFORD MANCHESTER, WYTHENSHAWE DUNBARTONSHIRE WEST CAITHNESS and SUTHERLAND EDMONTON STIRLINGSHIRE WEST BARONS COURT GLOUCESTERSHIRE WEST
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 23, 2021 12:17:26 GMT
A large proportion of those 'gains' were of course actual gains in 1970 while a fair number of the 'losses' were seats they lost in 1964 and 'should' have regained in 1970
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Post by andrewteale on May 23, 2021 22:10:36 GMT
Essex 2021. C 52 (-4) LD 8 (+1) Lab 5 (-1) Ind 3 (+1) Residents for Uttlesford 2 (+2) Canvey Island Independent Party 2 Grn 1 Loughton Residents Assoc 1 Rochford District Residents 1 (+1). Changes based on 2017: C gain from Grn Witham Northern C gain from LD Brentwood South Parsons Heath and East Gates Grn gain from C Braintree Eastern Ind gain from C Southminster LD gain from C Chelmsford Central Rayleigh North LD gain from Lab Wivenhoe St Andrew Residents for Uttlesford gain from C Saffron Walden Thaxted Rochford District Residents gain from C Rochford West Split divisions were: Basildon Laindon Park and Fryerns: C/Lab Basildon Pitsea: C/Lab
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Post by andrewp on May 23, 2021 22:20:46 GMT
That boundary between Braintree Eastern and Witham Northern divisions is very odd.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2021 22:30:10 GMT
It's historic - based on the boundary between Braintree Rural District and Witham Urban District. See: maps.nls.uk/view/91548850
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Post by hullenedge on May 25, 2021 12:25:07 GMT
From 1966 Sample Census % Professional/Managerial split into 'almost quintiles' and seat splits:-
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Post by andrewteale on May 26, 2021 18:39:57 GMT
Hampshire 2021. C 56 LD 17 (-2) Lab 3 (+1) Ind 1 (+1) Whitehill and Bordon Community Party 1 (+1) Community Campaign (Hart) 0 (-1). Changes based on 2017: C gain from Community Campaign (Hart) Church Crookham and Ewshot C gain from LD Hartley Wintney and Yateley West West End and Horton Heath Ind gain from LD Bishopstoke and Fair Oak Lab gain from C Aldershot North LD gain from C Chandler's Ford Whitehill and Bordon Community Party gain from C Whitehill, Bordon and Lindford No split divisions.
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Post by hullenedge on May 28, 2021 13:31:45 GMT
Regression of the Con lead over Lab for 1970 (1966 base). Darker colours are the 'gains' because of over/under performance. Scotland/Rural North/East Riding/Rural Wales/parts of the West Country and London were not keen on Ted.
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Post by carlton43 on May 28, 2021 15:21:22 GMT
Regression of the Con lead over Lab for 1970 (1966 base). Darker colours are the 'gains' because of over/under performance. Scotland/Rural North/East Riding/Rural Wales/parts of the West Country and London were not keen on Ted. No one was keen on Ted. Some valued him but very few actually liked him. We in the then minority anti-EEC faction distrusted him and came to loathe and despise and revile him, and I am afraid to say, to believe any calumny about him, and to spread it about in the hope of doing him damage. The Blessed Margaret was his demise and he then seemed to be both pointless and oddly unassailable. I doubt if those structural moves in political demographics had much to do with his character or personality.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 28, 2021 16:07:00 GMT
Regression of the Con lead over Lab for 1970 (1966 base). Darker colours are the 'gains' because of over/under performance. Scotland/Rural North/East Riding/Rural Wales/parts of the West Country and London were not keen on Ted. No one was keen on Ted. Some valued him but very few actually liked him. We in the then minority anti-EEC faction distrusted him and came to loathe and despise and revile him, and I am afraid to say, to believe any calumny about him, and to spread it about in the hope of doing him damage. The Blessed Margaret was his demise and he then seemed to be both pointless and oddly unassailable. I doubt if those structural moves in political demographics had much to do with his character or personality. I would have loved him and Woy Jenkins to have lived to see the 2016 EU referendum result and watch them sob into their beer/claret!
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Post by manchesterman on May 28, 2021 16:59:16 GMT
Labour's peaks during the last four elections (yellow = 2010, purple = 2015, red = 2017, blue = 2019) using winning/losing ratio formula:-
Sorry, just seeing this for the first time. The thing that stands out for me is the mass of blue seats around Merseyside, showing a Labour peak of popularity in a 2019 election which was otherwise their worst in living memory! I'm assuming there is a "Johnson factor" in play here, given that he was so nice in his attitudes towards the good folk of Liverpool
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Post by manchesterman on May 28, 2021 17:00:29 GMT
Also kudos to hullenedge for putting up these slightly quirky yet most interesting maps. Your efforts are much appreciated
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 28, 2021 18:10:05 GMT
Labour's peaks during the last four elections (yellow = 2010, purple = 2015, red = 2017, blue = 2019) using winning/losing ratio formula:-
Sorry, just seeing this for the first time. The thing that stands out for me is the mass of blue seats around Merseyside, showing a Labour peak of popularity in a 2019 election which was otherwise their worst in living memory! I'm assuming there is a "Johnson factor" in play here, given that he was so nice in his attitudes towards the good folk of Liverpool
He's probably as welcome there as a fart at a funeral.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 29, 2021 5:21:35 GMT
Buckingham isn’t correct, given that Labour got 65.1% there in 2017.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 29, 2021 9:45:56 GMT
Starting to see a few similar jibes about Hoyle from lefties, some might of course see that as a sign they did/are doing their jobs fairly well?
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