timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2021 10:37:25 GMT
Starting to see a few similar jibes about Hoyle from lefties, some might of course see that as a sign they did/are doing their jobs fairly well? Not just lefties; Remainers/rejoinders hate him, as do a lot of purported Starmer supporters because he doesn’t call out what they see as Johnson’s lies.
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Post by hullenedge on May 29, 2021 12:00:06 GMT
Constituencies where Labour polled more votes in 1979 than October 1974:- Increased turnout, growing/shrinking electorates, unwind of the 1974 Lib vote, collapse of the Scot Nats, candidature pattern, popularity of the incumbent are all factors.
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Post by andrewteale on May 29, 2021 13:46:37 GMT
Mansfield 2019. Lab mayor. Council: Lab 15 (-4) Mansfield Ind Forum 13 (-2) Ind 6 (+6) C 2 (+2) UKIP 0 (-2). Changes based on 2015: C gain from Mansfield Ind Forum Eakring Oakham Ind gain from Lab Market Warsop Netherfield Peafields Ind gain from Mansfield Ind Forum Grange Farm Newgate Racecourse Lab gain from Mansfield Ind Forum Broomhill Sandhurst Mansfield Ind Forum gain from Lab Hornby Oak Tree Sherwood Mansfield Ind Forum gain from UKIP Abbott Newlands
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Post by johnloony on May 29, 2021 16:16:52 GMT
Constituencies where Labour polled more votes in 1979 than October 1974:- Increased turnout, growing/shrinking electorates, unwind of the 1974 Lib vote, collapse of the Scot Nats, candidature pattern, popularity of the incumbent are all factors. Have you done the other half (where the Conservative vote went up)? You could even combine the two things : purple if both main parties increased.
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Post by hullenedge on May 29, 2021 18:32:53 GMT
Constituencies where Labour polled more votes in 1979 than October 1974:- Increased turnout, growing/shrinking electorates, unwind of the 1974 Lib vote, collapse of the Scot Nats, candidature pattern, popularity of the incumbent are all factors. Have you done the other half (where the Conservative vote went up)? You could even combine the two things : purple if both main parties increased. Our vote only fell in five constituencies. It would be a mass of blue and purple...like a big bruise.
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Post by andrewteale on May 29, 2021 20:35:58 GMT
Bromsgrove 2019. C 17 (-1) Lab 5 (-2) Ind 5 (+2) LD 3 (+3) Wythall Res Assoc 1 (-2). Changes based on 2015: C gain from Lab Rubery South Sanders Park C gain from Wythall Res Assoc Hollywood Wythall East Ind gain from C Alvechurch South Alvechurch Village LD gain from C Bromsgrove Central Lickey Hills Norton No split wards.
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Post by johnloony on May 29, 2021 21:22:08 GMT
Have you done the other half (where the Conservative vote went up)? You could even combine the two things : purple if both main parties increased. Our vote only fell in five constituencies. It would be a mass of blue and purple...like a big bruise. Ha! Which five? It reminds me of the quiz question about Labour losing seats in 1945 (Carmarthen to the Liberal Party, and Stepney Mile End to the CPGB).
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Post by hullenedge on May 30, 2021 6:40:42 GMT
Our vote only fell in five constituencies. It would be a mass of blue and purple...like a big bruise. Ha! Which five? It reminds me of the quiz question about Labour losing seats in 1945 (Carmarthen to the Liberal Party, and Stepney Mile End to the CPGB). LIVERPOOL, EDGE HILL GLASGOW, KELVINGROVE BERWICK-UPON-TWEED GLASGOW, CATHCART GREENOCK and PORT GLASGOW
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Post by johnloony on May 30, 2021 17:37:11 GMT
I have an idea / suggestion / request (for anybody who is clever enough to do the detailed colouring-in maps of all the wards in London, and for anybody who wants to bother doing it): A pairwise comparison of which candidate (out of candidates A and B) got more votes than the other in the election for Mayor of London, or which party got more than the other in the GLA list section. In 1999 I did some pairwise-comparison maps for the parties in the elections to the European Parliament, when the votes were counted according to parliamentary constituencies. It would be more fun / meaningful if it's a pair of candidates (or parties) who had similar numbers of votes overall, e.g. Omilana vs. Fox, or Green vs. Lib Dem
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2021 17:45:56 GMT
I can do that. I'm up for that actually having just finished my latest GLA election inspired project
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2021 18:56:17 GMT
The Green vs Lib Dem map on the Mayoral vote is spectacularly uninteresting
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2021 19:30:27 GMT
Fox (blue) vs Omilana (pink) is much more interesting though with some very visually pleasing divisions in boroughs like Enfield, Merton and Redbridge but also some surprising patterns in eg. Barnet
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Post by minionofmidas on May 30, 2021 20:03:36 GMT
The Green vs Lib Dem map on the Mayoral vote is spectacularly uninteresting oh cute, the Southwark LDs still live. lolK&C, what's with the random scattering of wards further north (or the green spots in the SW)? Any patterns someone better informed would spot?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2021 20:18:52 GMT
The Green vs Lib Dem map on the Mayoral vote is spectacularly uninteresting oh cute, the Southwark LDs still live. lolK&C, what's with the random scattering of wards further north (or the green spots in the SW)? Any patterns someone better informed would spot? Alperton and Sudbury in Brent - longstanding areas of local Lib Dem support although they had fallen away a fair bit lately prior to regaining Alperton in a by-election a while back. Still quite surprising. The others are Belsze and Fortune Green in Camden - again areas of local Lib Dem strength
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Post by bjornhattan on May 30, 2021 20:24:25 GMT
The Green vs Lib Dem map on the Mayoral vote is spectacularly uninteresting oh cute, the Southwark LDs still live. lolK&C, what's with the random scattering of wards further north (or the green spots in the SW)? Any patterns someone better informed would spot? Looking at the isolated northern Lib Dem wards in turn:
Alperton saw a Lib Dem victory in a local by-election at the start of 2020, so presumably local knowledge helped there.
Sudbury appears to be another area of local strength, where they came close to winning in the 2018 council elections. Fortune Green has a Lib Dem councillor. Belsize has two Lib Dem councillors, one of whom is Luisa Porritt who was the mayoral candidate. Southfield is another example of local strength showing up - all three councillors there are Lib Dems.
The southern Green wards seem much less explicable. Fulwell and Hampton Hill does have a Green councillor, thanks to a pact where the Lib Dems stood down one of their candidates, but said Green didn't come anywhere near topping the poll (the Lib Dem candidates both won about 500 more votes than her). Tudor and St Mark's didn't see any such pact, so I can't think of an obvious reason for those. It's a stretch but does Surbiton station mean the latter has a more transient population, which may be slightly less Lib Dem than the settled suburban residents in its neighbours? Tudor, on the other hand, seems particularly strange, and has no obvious reason for preferring the Greens.
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Post by froome on May 30, 2021 21:30:41 GMT
The Green vs Lib Dem map on the Mayoral vote is spectacularly uninteresting I'm surprised by how Green the map is. It shows how the Greens have managed to reach a certain level of support even in places like for instance Romford and Bexley. I know the LDs haven't been popular in Romford and Bexley for a long time but I'm guessing that until relatively recently they still would have got more votes than the Greens because the latter were also not able to muster many votes in those areas. That assessment may be more out of date than I think it is though. Have to agree. I expected it to be mainly green, but not quite as dominant as that. It would be interesting to see a similar map from the previous mayoral election.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2021 23:44:14 GMT
I'm surprised by how Green the map is. It shows how the Greens have managed to reach a certain level of support even in places like for instance Romford and Bexley. I know the LDs haven't been popular in Romford and Bexley for a long time but I'm guessing that until relatively recently they still would have got more votes than the Greens because the latter were also not able to muster many votes in those areas. That assessment may be more out of date than I think it is though. Have to agree. I expected it to be mainly green, but not quite as dominant as that. It would be interesting to see a similar map from the previous mayoral election.
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Post by froome on May 31, 2021 5:41:46 GMT
Thanks Pete. That is fascinating. So the Lib Dems have shrunk to their absolute heartlands, and in boroughs like Bromley (my old stamping ground), they have gone from being the larger party in most of the wards to none.
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Post by andrewteale on May 31, 2021 6:44:53 GMT
oh cute, the Southwark LDs still live. lolK&C, what's with the random scattering of wards further north (or the green spots in the SW)? Any patterns someone better informed would spot? Alperton and Sudbury in Brent - longstanding areas of local Lib Dem support although they had fallen away a fair bit lately prior to regaining Alperton in a by-election a while back. Still quite surprising. The others are Belsze and Fortune Green in Camden - again areas of local Lib Dem strength Looking again at what I wrote in 2020 for Alperton, in 2016 it was the only ward in London where George Galloway got over 100 on-the-day votes and it was one of the two best wards in London for Ankit Love. This seems to be a ward with a history of doing strange things.
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Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2021 8:12:58 GMT
Alperton and Sudbury in Brent - longstanding areas of local Lib Dem support although they had fallen away a fair bit lately prior to regaining Alperton in a by-election a while back. Still quite surprising. The others are Belsze and Fortune Green in Camden - again areas of local Lib Dem strength Looking again at what I wrote in 2020 for Alperton, in 2016 it was the only ward in London where George Galloway got over 100 on-the-day votes and it was one of the two best wards in London for Ankit Love. This seems to be a ward with a history of doing strange things. Keith Moon was brought up in Alperton. And one for Adam in Stroud , so was Gary Waddock.
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