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Post by andrewteale on Apr 25, 2019 8:45:57 GMT
Hart 2016. No changes based on 2014 when the current ward boundaries were introduced.   Hart 2018. Changes based on 2014: Community Campaign (Hart) gain from C Fleet West C gain from Ind Hook   Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Fleet Central is 2 Community Campaign/1C and the Conservatives are defending next week. Yateley West is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending next week. Coming soon, perhaps: Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stockport, Thurrock
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2019 9:00:37 GMT
9: South Gloucestershire Council, South West.
The map is old but still up to date, South Gloucestershire, will be yet another council where the Conservatives will need to be careful with both Labour in the South and Lib Dems in the North trying to take that control away from them. I reckon they'll do it as well. Boundary changes: 35 wards to 28, 70 seats to 61. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.  Lellow gain from blue |
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yorkshireluke
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 25, 2019 17:44:24 GMT
8: Cambridge City Council, Cambridgeshire, East of England.
Cambridge will be a safe Labour hold, but the real question is can the Lib Dems trouble them at all? The amazing effort by the surrounding South Cambridgeshire Lib Dems last year might be inspiration for the city Lib Dems to up their game. But we'll have to see... The by-election in the southern ward is a Lib Dem defence, the Independent resigned his seat (and also his county seat) finally having moved to Scotland months ago. The Liberal Democrats need a net gain of 9 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 5 to keep theirs. My prediction: Labour HOLD. 
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2019 18:55:06 GMT
8: Cambridge City Council, Cambridgeshire, East of England.
Cambridge will be a safe Labour hold, but the real question is can the Lib Dems trouble them at all? The amazing effort by the surrounding South Cambridgeshire Lib Dems last year might be inspiration for the city Lib Dems to up their game. But we'll have to see... The by-election in the southern ward is a Lib Dem defence, the Independent resigned his seat (and also his county seat) finally having moved to Scotland months ago. The Liberal Democrats need a net gain of 9 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 5 to keep theirs. My prediction: Labour HOLD. Were the yellow areas once blue here? |
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yorkshireluke
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 25, 2019 19:25:24 GMT
7: Elmbridge Borough Council, Surrey, South East.
1 week to go! Elmbridge is another council that's stuffed with different independent groups, it's currently NOC with a minority Conservative administration. Of course it wouldn't be hard, or even to unlikely, for the Tories to gain the council, but it'll likely stay NOC. The Conservatives need a net gain of 1 to gain the council. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 25, 2019 20:27:24 GMT
8: Cambridge City Council, Cambridgeshire, East of England.Cambridge will be a safe Labour hold, but the real question is can the Lib Dems trouble them at all? The amazing effort by the surrounding South Cambridgeshire Lib Dems last year might be inspiration for the city Lib Dems to up their game. But we'll have to see... The by-election in the southern ward is a Lib Dem defence, the Independent resigned his seat (and also his county seat) finally having moved to Scotland months ago. The Liberal Democrats need a net gain of 9 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 5 to keep theirs. My prediction: Labour HOLD. Were the yellow areas once blue here? Presumably all were if you go back far enough, but the most recent appears to be Trumpington in 2012. Surprisingly, two Labour wards went Conservative fairly recently too - Coleridge in 2008 and Cherry Hinton in 2002. None of them would have served together, so it would have presumably been a lonely experience. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 25, 2019 20:46:36 GMT
8: Cambridge City Council, Cambridgeshire, East of England.
Cambridge will be a safe Labour hold, but the real question is can the Lib Dems trouble them at all? The amazing effort by the surrounding South Cambridgeshire Lib Dems last year might be inspiration for the city Lib Dems to up their game. But we'll have to see... The by-election in the southern ward is a Lib Dem defence, the Independent resigned his seat (and also his county seat) finally having moved to Scotland months ago. The Liberal Democrats need a net gain of 9 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 5 to keep theirs. My prediction: Labour HOLD. Were the yellow areas once blue here? Bit of an oversimplification really. Including these boundaries and the last (which go back to ~1982 IIRC), the Tories never won Newnham or Market, but did manage to win in Coleridge, Cherry Hinton, East Chesterton and Arbury (once, in 1992). The most recent Conservative wins are, from most to least recent, Trumpington (2012), Coleridge (2008), Cherry Hinton (2004), Queen Edith’s (1996), Arbury (1992), Castle (1989), East Chesterton (1989) and West Chesterton (1989). |
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Post by David Ashforth on Apr 26, 2019 14:35:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2019 16:53:04 GMT
Were the yellow areas once blue here? Bit of an oversimplification really. Including these boundaries and the last (which go back to ~1982 IIRC), the Tories never won Newnham or Market, but did manage to win in Coleridge, Cherry Hinton, East Chesterton and Arbury (once, in 1992). The most recent Conservative wins are, from most to least recent, Trumpington (2012), Coleridge (2008), Cherry Hinton (2004), Queen Edith’s (1996), Arbury (1992), Castle (1989), East Chesterton (1989) and West Chesterton (1989). Great stuff. Quite a few councils where gold replaced blue in the 90s. |
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yorkshireluke
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 26, 2019 21:15:14 GMT
6: Medway Council, Kent, South East.
A lot of you asked me to do Medway so here it is. It could be an interesting one, chance of a Labour gain here if things go their way on the day. A big ask however, and I reckon it'll stay Conservative, if only just. Labour need a net gain of 13 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 8 to lose the theirs. My prediction: Conservative HOLD. 
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2019 13:11:25 GMT
I wonder Hoo the remaining UKIP councillor is?
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 27, 2019 15:11:30 GMT
Newcastle-under-Lyme 2016. Changes based on 2012: C gain from LD Halmerend   Newcastle-under-Lyme 2018. Lab 20 C 18 Ind 3 LD 3. New ward boundaries. Note that this was a wrong-winner result: shares of the vote were C 39.3 Lab 36.5 Ind 11.0 LD 7.3.   Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Audley: Ind/Lab/LD Bradwell: 2Lab/1C Kidsgrove and Ravenscliffe: 2C/1Lab Wolstanton: C/Lab
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 28, 2019 14:39:55 GMT
Were the yellow areas once blue here? Bit of an oversimplification really. Including these boundaries and the last (which go back to ~1982 IIRC), the Tories never won Newnham or Market, but did manage to win in Coleridge, Cherry Hinton, East Chesterton and Arbury (once, in 1992). The most recent Conservative wins are, from most to least recent, Trumpington (2012), Coleridge (2008), Cherry Hinton (2004), Queen Edith’s (1996), Arbury (1992), Castle (1989), East Chesterton (1989) and West Chesterton (1989). It's an oversimplification, but a pretty accurate one in most respects. In Coleridge, East Chesterton and Cherry Hinton their vote was more of a working/lower-middle class thing (Arbury is probably best treated as a fluke victory), whereas the current Lib Dem wards are the more middle-class ones in the city and will have kept voting Tory in general elections for some years after they went LD in local elections. Bear in mind also that Newnham used to have a lot more colleges until 2004 and on the present lines would have gone Tory several times in the 1980s. And as a very pedantic quibble, there was one Tory councillor elected in Market in 1976, before the Rosenstiels secured it as a liberal fastness. |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Apr 29, 2019 11:51:45 GMT
Greater Manchester, 2015
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2019 11:57:10 GMT
Note that all three 'No Overall Control' councils currently have Labour minority administrations.
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Apr 29, 2019 14:25:42 GMT
West Yorkshire, 2015
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yorkshireluke
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 29, 2019 17:39:23 GMT
5: Colchester Borough Council, Essex, East of England.
Colchester was, and probably still is, a Tory target this Thursday. With polling the way it is at the moment however, it seems that gains for the current coalition parties are now more likely, even if that's not what was expected based on last year. Keep an eye! The Conservatives need a net gain of 1 to gain a majority. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 29, 2019 18:23:48 GMT
4: Hart District Council, Hampshire, South East.
Hart is another council that should see the Conservative vote drop in favour of the current coalition leaders. I imagine the local Lib Dems would like to reach out to new wards but I reckon they'll get 1 gain and the Inds will get 1 or 2. The Conservatives need a net gain of 2 to gain a majority, the CCH need 7 and the Lib Dems need 9. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 29, 2019 18:47:29 GMT
There are only 9 seats plus the by-election seat circled above. Shouldn't there be 11?
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 30, 2019 8:48:17 GMT
Thurrock 2016. Changes based on 2012: C gain from Lab Stanford-le-Hope West UKIP gain from C Ockendon UKIP gain from Ind East Tilbury UKIP gain from Lab Belhus Stanford East and Corringham Town Tilbury St Chads Note that this was a wrong-winner result: the seats were C 7 UKIP 6 Lab 4, the vote shares were UKIP 38.8 Lab 31.7 C 28.3.   Thurrock 2018. Changes based on 2014: C gain from UKIP Stanford East and Corringham Town Stifford Clays Lab gain from C South Chafford Lab gain from UKIP Belhus Ockendon Thurrock Ind gain from UKIP (same candidate) Aveley and Uplands   Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections, references to UKIP below should be read as references to Thurrock Independents): Aveley and Uplands is 2UKIP/1Thurrock Independents and the Thurrock Independents are defending on Thursday. The Conservatives have gained a seat in this ward at a by-election. Belhus is 2UKIP/1Lab and the Thurrock Independents are defending on Thursday. Chadwell St Mary is 2Lab/1UKIP. There is a double vacancy on Thursday with Labour and the Thurrock Independents defending one seat each. Ockendon is 2UKIP/1Lab, however the Conservatives have gained one of the UKIP seats in a by-election and are defending that by-election gain on Thursday. South Chafford is C/Lab and is not up on Thursday. Stanford East and Corringham Town is 2UKIP/1C and the Thurrock Independents are defending on Thursday. Stifford Clays is C/UKIP and the Thurrock Independents are defending on Thursday. Tilbury St Chads is Lab/UKIP and is not up on Thursday. Coming soon, perhaps: North East Lincolnshire, Reading, St Albans
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