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Post by lancastrian on Apr 12, 2019 21:24:32 GMT
At the risk of winding one or two people up, I still think South Ribble should be disbanded, and divided between Preston and Chorley. All three might end up merged if the proposals for East Lancs lead to unitaries for the whole county. |
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Post by syorkssocialist on Apr 13, 2019 10:45:58 GMT
The folk I know in Penwortham would all be perfectly happy to be part of Preston...
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775 
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 13, 2019 17:39:43 GMT
19: City of York Council, North Yorkshire, Yorkshire and the Humber.
Full preview can be found here. I hope this is interesting to you all, just a quick note: a few things have changed since I made this. The Conservative in Bishopthorpe is now independent, and I'd say the chances of Lib Dem gains in Rural West are a lot higher. But enjoy! Labour need a net gain of 11 (9) to gain the council, the Lib Dems need 13 (12), and the Conservatives need 14 (10). Figures in brackets are compared to 2015 election. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 14, 2019 16:52:31 GMT
18: Derby City Council, Derbyshire, East Midlands.
Labour will worried in Derby that they may lose seats to the Conservatives, Lib Dems and even UKIP here. Last year Derby was one of two councils to see UKIP gains and there may be more again. Conservatives may be hindered by their current polling dive, but will hope for best. Labour need a net gain of 4 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need 7. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 15, 2019 23:26:39 GMT
17: Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council, Hertfordshire, East of England.
Welwyn (pronounced Wel-in) Hatfield will likely be another Conservative loss, with both the Lib Dems and Labour likely to make gains. I don't know the area well but I imagine there's a good chance for a coalition here. Labour need a net gain of 10 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 1 to hold on to theirs. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative. 
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2019 7:27:35 GMT
I love how NOC is CON backwards
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 16, 2019 23:15:18 GMT
16: Forest of Dean District Council, Gloucestershire, South West.
MAP GORE. What the hell is going on with independents in Forest of Dean? Who is in control??? I'm really not sure, the council makeup is as complicated as Brexit. In May however there's new wards and I imagine it'll end up being a NOC hold. Boundary changes: 27 wards to 21, 48 seats to 38. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 18, 2019 17:04:09 GMT
15: Cheshire West and Chester Council, North West.
The other half of Cheshire gets new boundaries this year, and it's currently close there but with things the way they are at the moment it should be a Labour hold. Still one to watch however, anything can happen at the moment. Boundary changes: 46 wards to 45, 75 seats to 70. My prediction: Labour HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 18, 2019 17:44:42 GMT
14: Mansfield District Council, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands.
Two weeks until election day and we finally visit Notts in these previews. Mansfield has a Mayoral election at the same time as the council and it's a battle between the Independents and Labour. Will be a close one on the council but the current Mayor should hang on. The Independent Forum and Labour both need a net gain of 3 to gain the council. My prediction: Independent Forum GAIN from NOC. 
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 20, 2019 23:26:52 GMT
Sunderland 2016. Changes based on 2012: Lab gain from Ind Copt Hill Houghton LD gain from Lab Millfield   Sunderland 2018. Changes based on 2014: C gain from Lab Barnes St Chad's Lab gain from Ind Copt Hill LD gain from Lab Millfield Pallion Sandhill   Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Barnes is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending next month. Fulwell is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending next month. Millfield is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending next month. Pallion is 2Lab/1LD but the Lib Dems have gained a second seat in a by-election and are defending that gain next month. St Chad's is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending next month. St Peter's is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending next month. Sandhill is 2Lab/1LD but the Lib Dems have gained a second seat in a by-election. Next month both Lib Dem seats are up in a double vacancy. Coming soon, perhaps: Hart, Newcstle-under-Lyme, Portsmouth
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 21, 2019 0:24:08 GMT
Current UK makeup of the European Parliament:  |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 21, 2019 2:33:28 GMT
An interesting arrangement of ward names in Washington. Presumably the Boundary Commission decided that brevity of words was more important than geographical precision (NE, NW, SE, SW, C). |
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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 21, 2019 11:57:27 GMT
An interesting arrangement of ward names in Washington. Presumably the Boundary Commission decided that brevity of words was more important than geographical precision (NE, NW, SE, SW, C). Population density will also play a role: at least with North, the eastern half of the ward is Nissan where (presumably) no-one lives, so most of the population are north of the centre rather than north-east. I'm not familiar enough with Washington to say whether that applies to the other wards. |
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 21, 2019 12:04:28 GMT
Portsmouth 2016. Changes based on 2012: C gain from LD Cosham LD gain from Lab Nelson   Portsmouth 2018. Changes based on 2014: C gain from UKIP Copnor Paulsgrove Lab gain from C St Jude Lab gain from LD Central Southsea Lab gain from UKIP Charles Dickens Fratton LD gain from UKIP Baffins Nelson   Split wards are (deep breath, not taking account of by-elections or defections): Central Southsea is 2LD/1Lab and the Liberal Democrats are defending next month. Eastney and Craneswater is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending next month. Fratton is 2LD/1Lab and the Liberal Democrats are defending next month. Nelson is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending next month. Paulsgrove is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending next month. St Jude is C/Lab/LD and the Conservatives are defending next month. St Thomas is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending next month.
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 21, 2019 20:16:14 GMT
13: North Hertfordshire District Council, East of England.
2015 was a good year for North Hertfordshire Tories, which makes it all the more likely that they will lose their majority after the election in May. Both Labour and the Lib Dems looking for gains, this will be one to watch. Labour need a net gain of 11 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 4 to keep theirs. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 21, 2019 20:35:55 GMT
12: Carlisle City Council, Cumbria, North West.
Carlisle has boundary changes which means all seats are up. As you can tell there's very different voting patterns in the city compared to the rest of the district. With boundary changes in place it will likely leave the council in NOC. Labour gain is always possible though. Never mind I just looked at the new boundaries, Labour gain almost definite I reckon. Boundary changes: 22 wards to 13, 52 seats to 39. My prediction: Labour GAIN from NOC. 
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2019 21:12:13 GMT
16: Forest of Dean District Council, Gloucestershire, South West.
MAP GORE. What the hell is going on with independents in Forest of Dean? Who is in control??? I'm really not sure, the council makeup is as complicated as Brexit. In May however there's new wards and I imagine it'll end up being a NOC hold. Boundary changes: 27 wards to 21, 48 seats to 38. My prediction: NOC HOLD. I *think* Forest First are a Labour splinter. As far as I can work out, the Independents and non-aligneds are both independents, but the ones in a group are labelled "independent" while the "non-aligned" ones are true independents. That said I have no idea who the "ungrouped X" are. Basically, God only knows, but I would not be surprised to see the Tories gain control here. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 23, 2019 0:41:41 GMT
11: Derry City and Strabane District Council, Northern Ireland.
Over to Northern Ireland again, the unionist parties will be looking to do better than they did last time here in Derry and Strabane. Will Brexit have an impact? Of course it will, but which side will it help? My bet is the nationalists. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 23, 2019 1:09:10 GMT
10: Walsall Council, West Midlands, West Midlands.
Down to the last 10, Walsall could easily see change of control, it wouldn't take much but... Labour have been slipping here recently whilst the Conservatives have been slipping nationally, this puts the situation into quite unknown territory, so I'm gonna say NOC hold. The Conservatives need a net gain of 1 to gain a majority, Labour need 3. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Apr 23, 2019 23:04:42 GMT
9: South Gloucestershire Council, South West.
The map is old but still up to date, South Gloucestershire, will be yet another council where the Conservatives will need to be careful with both Labour in the South and Lib Dems in the North trying to take that control away from them. I reckon they'll do it as well. Boundary changes: 35 wards to 28, 70 seats to 61. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative. 
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