Pretty Maps

[yorkshireluke]

30: Darlington Borough Council, County Durham, North East.



Darlington is the last council in the North East I'm gonna preview, (there aren't that many to be fair) it could be close for Labour if people swing the other way BUUUT recent and current events nationally could sway all of that...



The Conservatives need a net gain of 11 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 4 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Labour HOLD.

[yorkshireluke]

29: Three Rivers District Council, Hertfordshire, East of England.



Three Rivers was the Lib Dem gain of last year that got a bit glossed over, it's expected this time to go even more to the Libs with at least 4 gains expected. Of course it would only take a net loss of one for it to be back in NOC but it's unlikely.



The Conservatives need a net gain of 4 to gain a majority, the Lib Dems need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD.

[Pete Whitehead]

It got glossed over cos it was only really a technical gain. They lost their majority because the councillor coming up for re-election in Leavesden was deselected so went Independent. The only seat to change hands involved the Lib Dems winning that seat back and hence their majority. Same as Barnet wasn't really a Conservative gain

[yorkshireluke]

28: Pendle Borough Council, Lancashire, North West.



4 weeks until election day, Pendle will almost definitely be a Conservative loss with Labour and the Lib Dems only needing one gain to make it happen. Gonna presume that the resulting council would have a Lab/LD coalition but you never know.



Labour need a net gain of 10 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep theirs.



My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.

[yorkshireluke]

27: Causeway Coast and Glens Borough Council, Northern Ireland.



A mostly unionist council this one, a few pockets of nationalism around however. This council also has the only NI Conservative councillor by defection.

[yorkshireluke]

26: Cotswold District Council, Gloucestershire, South West.



Another council that is a Conservative-Lib Dem battle is Cotswold. Last year we saw South Cambridgeshire flip from Conservative to Lib Dem and some reckon the same will happen here. Personally I'm sceptical, and think that the Conservatives will just hold on.



The Liberal Democrats need a net gain of 7 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 5 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Conservative HOLD.

[yorkshireluke]

25: Southampton City Council, Hampshire, South East.



Southampton has been a close affair in recent years, in a by-election recently, Labour increased their majority by gaining off the Independents. Even if there are losses to the Conservatives, it seems that they'll be gaining themselves, and will hold onto the council again.



The Conservatives need a net gain of 6 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 2 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Labour HOLD.

[yorkshireluke]

24: Eastleigh Borough Council, Hampshire, South East.



Travelling East from Southampton takes you into a very different situation. The Lib Dems will be looking for more gains in their already dominant Eastleigh, and all the other parties will be doing everything they can to stop it.



It is mathematically impossible for the Lib Dems to lose their majority.



My “prediction”: Liberal Democrat HOLD.

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2019 23:19:24 GMT yorkshireluke said:

24: Eastleigh Borough Council, Hampshire, South East.



Travelling East from Southampton takes you into a very different situation. The Lib Dems will be looking for more gains in their already dominant Eastleigh, and all the other parties will be doing everything they can to stop it.

The difference in the political landscape between Southampton and Eastleigh is surely rivaled by very few other pairs of bordering authorities (Leicester and Oadby & Wigston springs to mind though and it's a very similar example). I recall our candidate in Harefield (an Eastern ward in Southampton) saying last year about how despite knowing any effort there would be fruitless (we got 2-3% IIRC), in parts of the ward you could see plenty of yellow/orange diamonds just down the road!

The borough of Eastleigh isn't even a distinct single community. There's Eastleigh town which is distinct from Southampton (although the two are very close) and there's Hamble at the other end, while most of the rest is attached to Southampton but neither Eastleigh nor Hamble.

[londonseal80]

Apr 9, 2019 13:57:26 GMT @nw12398 said:

Apr 8, 2019 23:19:24 GMT yorkshireluke said:

24: Eastleigh Borough Council, Hampshire, South East.



Travelling East from Southampton takes you into a very different situation. The Lib Dems will be looking for more gains in their already dominant Eastleigh, and all the other parties will be doing everything they can to stop it.

The difference in the political landscape between Southampton and Eastleigh is surely rivaled by very few other pairs of bordering authorities (Leicester and Oadby & Wigston springs to mind though and it's a very similar example). I recall our candidate in Harefield (an Eastern ward in Southampton) saying last year about how despite knowing any effort there would be fruitless (we got 2-3% IIRC), in parts of the ward you could see plenty of yellow/orange diamonds just down the road!

The borough of Eastleigh isn't even a distinct single community. There's Eastleigh town which is distinct from Southampton (although the two are very close) and there's Hamble at the other end, while most of the rest is attached to Southampton but neither Eastleigh nor Hamble.

Epsom and Ewell and Sutton are also very different politically in local elections at least despite the areas being quite similar. Lib Dem’s control Sutton but are wiped out of Epsom. Residents control Epsom and until last local election there were none in Sutton, now the Beddington Independents are on the council. The Beddington and Wallington wards used to be dominated by Residents councillors back in the early years of the London elections. If you crossed from Worcester Park/North Cheam into Ewell you would barely notice a difference, cross from Sutton into Morden or Wallington into Waddon you really notice you have crossed a borough boundary.

[Adam in Stroud]

Apr 10, 2019 16:09:08 GMT londonseal80 said:

Apr 9, 2019 13:57:26 GMT @nw12398 said:

The difference in the political landscape between Southampton and Eastleigh is surely rivaled by very few other pairs of bordering authorities (Leicester and Oadby & Wigston springs to mind though and it's a very similar example). I recall our candidate in Harefield (an Eastern ward in Southampton) saying last year about how despite knowing any effort there would be fruitless (we got 2-3% IIRC), in parts of the ward you could see plenty of yellow/orange diamonds just down the road!

The borough of Eastleigh isn't even a distinct single community. There's Eastleigh town which is distinct from Southampton (although the two are very close) and there's Hamble at the other end, while most of the rest is attached to Southampton but neither Eastleigh nor Hamble.

Epsom and Ewell and Sutton are also very different politically in local elections at least despite the areas being quite similar. Lib Dem’s control Sutton but are wiped out of Epsom. Residents control Epsom and until last local election there were none in Sutton, now the Beddington Independents are on the council. The Beddington and Wallington wards used to be dominated by Residents councillors back in the early years of the London elections. If you crossed from Worcester Park/North Cheam into Ewell you would barely notice a difference, cross from Sutton into Morden or Wallington into Waddon you really notice you have crossed a borough boundary.

Except in respect of the St Helier Estate straddling the border. But your point is sound (or was when I loved there). Morden and Sutton High Streets felt very different to each other.

[warofdreams]

Apr 10, 2019 16:09:08 GMT londonseal80 said:

Apr 9, 2019 13:57:26 GMT @nw12398 said:

The difference in the political landscape between Southampton and Eastleigh is surely rivaled by very few other pairs of bordering authorities (Leicester and Oadby & Wigston springs to mind though and it's a very similar example). I recall our candidate in Harefield (an Eastern ward in Southampton) saying last year about how despite knowing any effort there would be fruitless (we got 2-3% IIRC), in parts of the ward you could see plenty of yellow/orange diamonds just down the road!

The borough of Eastleigh isn't even a distinct single community. There's Eastleigh town which is distinct from Southampton (although the two are very close) and there's Hamble at the other end, while most of the rest is attached to Southampton but neither Eastleigh nor Hamble.

Epsom and Ewell and Sutton are also very different politically in local elections at least despite the areas being quite similar. Lib Dem’s control Sutton but are wiped out of Epsom. Residents control Epsom and until last local election there were none in Sutton, now the Beddington Independents are on the council. The Beddington and Wallington wards used to be dominated by Residents councillors back in the early years of the London elections. If you crossed from Worcester Park/North Cheam into Ewell you would barely notice a difference, cross from Sutton into Morden or Wallington into Waddon you really notice you have crossed a borough boundary.

Sheffield and Derbyshire Dales?

[londonseal80]

Apr 10, 2019 16:16:25 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Apr 10, 2019 16:09:08 GMT londonseal80 said:

Epsom and Ewell and Sutton are also very different politically in local elections at least despite the areas being quite similar. Lib Dem’s control Sutton but are wiped out of Epsom. Residents control Epsom and until last local election there were none in Sutton, now the Beddington Independents are on the council. The Beddington and Wallington wards used to be dominated by Residents councillors back in the early years of the London elections. If you crossed from Worcester Park/North Cheam into Ewell you would barely notice a difference, cross from Sutton into Morden or Wallington into Waddon you really notice you have crossed a borough boundary.

Except in respect of the St Helier Estate straddling the border. But your point is sound (or was when I loved there). Morden and Sutton High Streets felt very different to each other.

Yes very much, though demographically the Sutton parts of St Helier are more like Court ward in Epsom and Ewell or Stanwell North in Spelthorhe. The Merton parts of the St Helier Estate (most of which is in Ravensbury ward not St Helier) are more inner London in terms of demographic.

[finsobruce]

Apr 10, 2019 16:16:25 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Apr 10, 2019 16:09:08 GMT londonseal80 said:

Epsom and Ewell and Sutton are also very different politically in local elections at least despite the areas being quite similar. Lib Dem’s control Sutton but are wiped out of Epsom. Residents control Epsom and until last local election there were none in Sutton, now the Beddington Independents are on the council. The Beddington and Wallington wards used to be dominated by Residents councillors back in the early years of the London elections. If you crossed from Worcester Park/North Cheam into Ewell you would barely notice a difference, cross from Sutton into Morden or Wallington into Waddon you really notice you have crossed a borough boundary.

Except in respect of the St Helier Estate straddling the border. But your point is sound (or was when I loved there). Morden and Sutton High Streets felt very different to each other.

ooh, Matron!

[Adam in Stroud]

Apr 10, 2019 16:41:20 GMT finsobruce said:

Apr 10, 2019 16:16:25 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Except in respect of the St Helier Estate straddling the border. But your point is sound (or was when I loved there). Morden and Sutton High Streets felt very different to each other.

ooh, Matron!

Ah well. as it happens, I did. So I shan't edit it out.

[yorkshireluke]

23: West Suffolk Council, East of England:



If this council wasn't new I wouldn't have talked about it. West Suffolk is the greatly needed new merger of Forest Heath and St Edmundsbury. If this council doesn't go Conservative I'll eat my map! Also correction the Conservatives have a total of 53 seats not 35.



New boundaries: 64 seats in 43 wards.



My prediction: Conservative WIN.

[yorkshireluke]

22: Vale of White Horse District Council, Oxfordshire, South East.



One of the councils I've heard the most chatter about from hopeful Lib Dems is Vale of White Horse. If the Lib Dems gain every seat they can in Abingdon then they will only need a couple more to take it. There's an election pact with the Greens in areas here.



The Liberal Democrats need a net gain of 11 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 10 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

[yorkshireluke]

21: Milton Keynes Council, Buckinghamshire, South East.



The only part of Buckinghamshire that has local elections this year is Milton Keynes, and it's a close one. It'll almost definitely stay NOC but there is a very good chance of quite a few Conservative losses here. The question is how many?



The Conservatives need a net gain of 6 to gain a majority, Labour need 8.



My prediction: NOC HOLD.

[yorkshireluke]

20: South Ribble Borough Council, Lancashire, North West.



South Ribble looks like it would be prime territory for a Conservative loss, however after a glance at the 2017 CC election results I'm not as sure. I still think that Labour and maybe even the Lib Dems should be able to gain at least 2 however. So that's what I'm predicting.



Labour need a net gain of 8 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 2 to keep theirs.



My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.

[Adrian]

At the risk of winding one or two people up, I still think South Ribble should be disbanded, and divided between Preston and Chorley.