Pretty Maps

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There was a very good candidate in Biddulph North who sadly didn't get in. Don't think he's standing again this year (and it wouldn't be for the same party).

[andrewteale]

Ribble Valley 2015. C 35 (+2) LD 4 (-2) Lab 1 (+1) Ind 0 (-1). Changes based on 2011:

C gain from Ind
Alston and Hothersall (1)

C gain from LD
Edisford and Low Moor (1)
Southill (1)

Lab gain from LD
Edisford and Low Moor (1)

LD gain from C
Littlemoor (1)



Waddington and West Bradford was uncontested. Split wards in 2015 were:
Edisford and Low Moor: C/Lab

[andrewteale]

North Dorset 2015. C 27 LD 4 Ind 2. New ward boundaries.



The Beacons was uncontested. Split wards in 2015 were:
Blandford Central: Ind/LD
Gillingham Town: 2C/1LD
Shaftesbury East: C/Ind
Shaftesbury West: LD/C

[yorkshireluke]

64: Sheffield City Council, South Yorkshire, Yorkshire and the Humber.



Sheffield will likely be seeing a few more gains for the Lib Dems and Greens this time round, although Labour might be able to gain 1 or 2 off UKIP. Don't expect anything major here however.



Labour need to avoid a net loss of 11 to keep their majority.



My prediction: Labour HOLD.

[andrewteale]

Eden 2015. C 21 (+5) Ind 10 (-3) LD 7 (-2). Changes based on 2011:

C gain from Ind
Eamont
Kirkby Stephen (1)

C gain from LD
Long Marton
Penrith Carleton
Ravenstonedale
Shap

LD gain from C
Penrith Pategill

LD gain from Ind
Dacre



In 2015 Eden only had 52 candidates for 38 seats, and 21 councillors - over half the council - were elected unopposed. Split wards in 2015 were:
Alston Moor: Ind/C (the Conservative seat was later gained by the Lib Dems in a by-election, and that Lib Dem seat was then gained by Labour in a second by-election)
Kirkby Stephen: C/Ind
Penrith East: LD/C
Penrith North: 2LD/1C
Penrith South: C/Ind
Penrith West: LD/C

That completes north-west England on LEAP. There is just one council left to do which will hold elections in May: that is Richmondshire.

[yorkshireluke]

Mar 2, 2019 2:00:46 GMT andrewteale said:

Eden 2015. C 21 (+5) Ind 10 (-3) LD 7 (-2). Changes based on 2011:

C gain from Ind
Eamont
Kirkby Stephen (1)

C gain from LD
Long Marton
Penrith Carleton
Ravenstonedale
Shap

LD gain from C
Penrith Pategill

LD gain from Ind
Dacre



In 2015 Eden only had 52 candidates for 38 seats, and 21 councillors - over half the council - were elected unopposed. Split wards in 2015 were:
Alston Moor: Ind/C (the Conservative seat was later gained by the Lib Dems in a by-election, and that Lib Dem seat was then gained by Labour in a second by-election)
Kirkby Stephen: C/Ind
Penrith East: LD/C
Penrith North: 2LD/1C
Penrith South: C/Ind
Penrith West: LD/C

That completes north-west England on LEAP. There is just one council left to do which will hold elections in May: that is Richmondshire.

Don't blame you saving Richmondshire for last, tis a silly place.

[yorkshireluke]

63: Brighton and Hove City Council, East Sussex, South East.



Brighton and Hove had been under a decently stable minority Labour administration until very recently, this has caused the Conservatives to become the largest party for the last few weeks before election. Labour should be able to gain the council for full this time around however, so if they don’t, it will be a story you will be hearing about on the news for sure.



Labour need a net gain of 8 to gain the council, Conservatives need 7, Greens need 17.



My prediction: Labour GAIN from NOC.

[yorkshireluke]

62: Thanet District Council, Kent, South East.



Thanet, one of the last 2 councils to have more than 10 UKIPers left. I bet that they're all gone come May 3rd, and therefore I see this as an easy Conservative gain. After these elections, I really only see Rotherham as the main UKIP pool, is the end nigh?



The Conservatives need a net gain of 7 to gain a majority, UKIP need 16 (unlikely).



My prediction: Conservative GAIN from NOC.

[andrewteale]

Richmondshire 2015. C 21 (+7) Ind 7 (-9) Richmondshire Ind Group 4 (+4) LD 2 (-2). Changes based on 2011:

C gain from Ind
Colburn (1)
Middleton Tyas
Newsham and Eppleby
Penhill
Scotton (1)
Swaledale

C gain from LD
Croft

Ind gain from LD
Richmond West (1)

Richmondshire Ind Group gain from Ind
Colburn (1)
Gilling West
Hipswell (1)
Scotton (1)



Middleham was uncontested. Split wards in 2015 were:
Catterick: Ind/C (there have since been two by-elections here, with the Conservatives holding one and gaining the other)
Colburn: 1 Richmondshire Ind Gp/2C
Hipswell: Richmondshire Ind Gp/C
Richmond East: Ind/C (the Conservatives have since defended their seat in a by-election, which was won by Louise Dickens, daughter of former Tory MP Geoffrey Dickens)
Scotton: C/Richmondshire Ind Gp

Since 2015 the Conservatives have gained seats in Richmond Central, and Reeth and Arkengarthdale in by-elections (the Reeth by-election was unopposed).

Next: Corby

[yorkshireluke]

61: North East Lincolnshire Council, Yorkshire and the Humber.



I believe this map here marks the first time I may be making a unpopular prediction; NE Lincolnshire is currently NOC however I predict that it will be a Con gain in May. Results last time out suggest that the council is going that way and they only need 4 gains to do it.



Labour and the Conservatives both need a net gain of 4 to gain a majority, they must also beat the other party.



My prediction: Conservative GAIN from NOC.

[yorkshireluke]

60: Hinckely and Bosworth Borough Council, Leicestershire, East Midlands.



It's been a few hours since my last risky prediction so I'm gonna do another. I think Hinckley and Bosworth will be a LD gain. They can do it by gaining the remainder of the SE corner, and they definitely have a shot at doing just that! This is far from guaranteed though.



The Lib Dems need a net gain of 6 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 4 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

[andrewteale]

Corby 2015. Lab 24 C 5. New ward boundaries.



Split wards in 2015 were:
Oakley South: 2Lab/1C

Next: Forest Heath

[yorkshireluke]

59: Eden District Council, Cumbria, North West.



Eden is almost definitely not gonna stay Conservative held. If county council results are any thing to go by then a few Lib Dem and Labour gains are to be expected, however the independents here might spoil that a bit and take control of any coalition. One to watch!



The Independents need to have a net of 10 to gain a majority, the Lib Dems would need 13. The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep their majority.



My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.

[andrewp]

Mar 5, 2019 1:24:42 GMT yorkshireluke said:

59: Eden District Council, Cumbria, North West.



Eden is almost definitely not gonna stay Conservative held. If county council results are any thing to go by then a few Lib Dem and Labour gains are to be expected, however the independents here might spoil that a bit and take control of any coalition. One to watch!



The Independents need to have a net of 10 to gain a majority, the Lib Dems would need 13. The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep their majority.



My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.

Where there are loads of Independents involved I would need to wait to see the SOPN to say it’s almost defitnely not going to stay Conservative overall control. If several Independents stood down, the Conservatives could conceivably make net gains here

[yorkshireluke]

58: Babergh District Council, Suffolk, East of England.



Babergh is one of the councils in Suffolk that's not being merged (even if some think it should). Currently under some kind of weird Con/Ind coalition I can't find details for. Still a Con majority though, that is under threat, although I reckon they'll be fine.



Boundary changes: 27 wards to 24, 43 seats to 32.



My prediction: Conservative HOLD.

[Chris from Brum]

Mar 6, 2019 1:22:48 GMT yorkshireluke said:

58: Babergh District Council, Suffolk, East of England.



Babergh is one of the councils in Suffolk that's not being merged (even if some think it should). Currently under some kind of weird Con/Ind coalition I can't find details for. Still a Con majority though, that is under threat, although I reckon they'll be fine.



Boundary changes: 27 wards to 24, 43 seats to 32.



My prediction: Conservative HOLD.

You say the numbers indicate the seats per ward, but I think you mean it's 2 seats per ward unless otherwise indicated.

[froome]

Mar 6, 2019 9:08:11 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 6, 2019 1:22:48 GMT yorkshireluke said:

58: Babergh District Council, Suffolk, East of England.



Babergh is one of the councils in Suffolk that's not being merged (even if some think it should). Currently under some kind of weird Con/Ind coalition I can't find details for. Still a Con majority though, that is under threat, although I reckon they'll be fine.



Boundary changes: 27 wards to 24, 43 seats to 32.



My prediction: Conservative HOLD.

You say the numbers indicate the seats per ward, but I think you mean it's 2 seats per ward unless otherwise indicated.

That's what I was assuming as well, but if so, there only appears to be one Labour seat (a split ward with the Conservatives on the western borders). The list of councillors says there are two.

[edgbaston]

Mar 6, 2019 11:53:17 GMT froome said:

Mar 6, 2019 9:08:11 GMT Chris from Brum said:

You say the numbers indicate the seats per ward, but I think you mean it's 2 seats per ward unless otherwise indicated.

That's what I was assuming as well, but if so, there only appears to be one Labour seat (a split ward with the Conservatives on the western borders). The list of councillors says there are two.

Look closer, it's two very small wards each electing 1 Labour councillor. Must be a small town of sorts.

[The Bishop]

Sudbury is the town, IIRC one of the Labour seats was a by election gain after the 2017 GE - by all of a single vote

[Davıd Boothroyd]

And the successful candidate was Luke Cresswell who made his own contribution to the current crisis over antisemitism.