J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,741 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 21, 2019 1:58:58 GMT
But a loss of minus 14 is a gain of plus 14. That’s way over my head at 2am. Start with 20. Subtract minus 14. What do you get? (My body clock is screwed at the moment, I woke up at 4pm, had something to eat and did some pottering around, was exhausted by 7pm, so went to bed, and woke up again at about 1am. I desperate need to synchronise it with the outside world so I can do things that require interaction with the outside world.) |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 21, 2019 13:37:48 GMT
That’s way over my head at 2am. Start with 20. Subtract minus 14. What do you get? (My body clock is screwed at the moment, I woke up at 4pm, had something to eat and did some pottering around, was exhausted by 7pm, so went to bed, and woke up again at about 1am. I desperate need to synchronise it with the outside world so I can do things that require interaction with the outside world.) Yeah yeah I know technically that would be positive but you know what I mean. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 22, 2019 16:11:32 GMT
70: Leeds City Council, West Yorkshire, Yorkshire and the Humber.
One of the largest councils in Britain: Leeds. The city saw boundary changes last year with an all out election to go with it, therefore this year, targeting should be slightly easier for the smaller parties. Thus expect a few LD/Green gains here. Labour hold though. Labour need to avoid a net loss of 12 to keep control of the council. My prediction: Labour HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 22, 2019 18:49:03 GMT
69: Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire, West Midlands.
To the part of the country I forgot existed! (Sorry) Stoke is currently under a coalition of Ind's and Conservatives and from what I can tell, the Labour to Conservative swing seems to have increased. Therefore I'd imagine more gains for both the Tories and the City Ind's. The City Independents need a net gain of 7 to gain the council, Labour need a net gain of 4. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2019 9:43:10 GMT
69: Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire, West Midlands.
To the part of the country I forgot existed! (Sorry) Stoke is currently under a coalition of Ind's and Conservatives and from what I can tell, the Labour to Conservative swing seems to have increased. Therefore I'd imagine more gains for both the Tories and the City Ind's. The City Independents need a net gain of 7 to gain the council, Labour need a net gain of 4. My prediction: NOC HOLD. One to watch. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 23, 2019 20:50:38 GMT
68: North Devon Council, South West.
North Devon, one of the lovely places that has a constituency of the same name covering the exact same area. The swing from 15 to 17 suggests that the Tories will be unlikely to gain this council, the real question will be who has more seats? Them, LDs or Inds? Boundary changes: 27 wards to 25, 43 seats to 42. My prediction: NOC HOLD. 
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 24, 2019 0:22:32 GMT
We have a parliamentary by-election coming up, so here is Newport 2017. Lab 31 (-6) C 12 (+2) Newport Independents Party 4 (+4) LD 2 (+1) Ind 1 (-1). Changes based on 2012: C gain from Lab Caerleon (1) Rogerstone (1) Ind gain from Lab Liswerry (1) LD gain from Lab St Julians (1) Newport Independents Party gain from Ind Bettws (2) Newport Independents Party gain from Lab Bettws (1) Rogerstone (1)   Split divisions in 2017 were: Caerleon: 2Lab/1C Liswerry: 3Lab/1Ind Rogerstone: C/Lab/Newport Independents Party St Julians: 2LD/1Lab Coming soon, perhaps: North Dorset, Ribble Valley, West Devon |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 24, 2019 18:38:22 GMT
West Devon 2015. C 21 Ind 10. New ward boundaries.   Hatherleigh was uncontested. That completes Devon 2015 on LEAP. Seven 2015 maps to go.
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 24, 2019 20:49:03 GMT
67: Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council, Dorset, South West.
Another new council, the abhorrently named Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole will be created in April and will have elections in May. Here is the current mash up of the 3 councils that are being merged, safe to say it will likely be a Conservative win. New boundaries: 33 wards with 76 seats. My prediction: Conservative WIN. 
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Feb 24, 2019 22:16:15 GMT
67: Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council, Dorset, South West.
Another new council, the abhorrently named Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole will be created in April and will have elections in May. Here is the current mash up of the 3 councils that are being merged, safe to say it will likely be a Conservative win. New boundaries: 33 wards with 76 seats. My prediction: Conservative WIN. I know it's true blue Tory country down there, but I'm amazed that there isn't a single Labour councillor between them. |
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Post by syorkssocialist on Feb 24, 2019 22:24:48 GMT
67: Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council, Dorset, South West.
Another new council, the abhorrently named Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole will be created in April and will have elections in May. Here is the current mash up of the 3 councils that are being merged, safe to say it will likely be a Conservative win. New boundaries: 33 wards with 76 seats. My prediction: Conservative WIN. I know it's true blue Tory country down there, but I'm amazed that there isn't a single Labour councillor between them. That may change as our vote share increased substantially in this area in 2017. If we don't take a seat or two there it will be a bad night for us. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2019 22:43:04 GMT
Oh god, the logo suggestions!  The bottom right one looks familiar from somewhere, like it was copied from something else. I can't think where though. Of course, they are all totally inappropriate as council logos. |
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Post by syorkssocialist on Feb 24, 2019 23:10:04 GMT
Oh god, the logo suggestions! The bottom right one looks familiar from somewhere, like it was copied from something else. I can't think where though. Of course, they are all totally inappropriate as council logos. Reminds me of the Google Play logo. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Feb 25, 2019 10:11:49 GMT
I know it's true blue Tory country down there, but I'm amazed that there isn't a single Labour councillor between them. That may change as our vote share increased substantially in this area in 2017. If we don't take a seat or two there it will be a bad night for us. When did your team last have a councillor here? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 25, 2019 10:21:48 GMT
That may change as our vote share increased substantially in this area in 2017. If we don't take a seat or two there it will be a bad night for us. When did your team last have a councillor here? Kinson South ward was fully Labour up to 2011. Labour had two out of three seats in Kinson South ward in 2011-2015, and may have won a seat in 2015 had the election been properly administered. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 25, 2019 10:36:02 GMT
That may change as our vote share increased substantially in this area in 2017. If we don't take a seat or two there it will be a bad night for us. When did your team last have a councillor here? Up to 1999, there were two very safe Labour wards in Bournemouth. The best Labour councillor count was 12 in 1973 |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 25, 2019 15:58:23 GMT
67: Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council, Dorset, South West.
Another new council, the abhorrently named Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole will be created in April and will have elections in May. Here is the current mash up of the 3 councils that are being merged, safe to say it will likely be a Conservative win. New boundaries: 33 wards with 76 seats. My prediction: Conservative WIN. Nice map! Hadn't heard before of the Poole People & Independent Group. Do the four Poole PIGs campaign under that name? I'm pleased to see that at least one of the Poole PIGs represents Hamworthy West ward - shame there aren't any in Penn Hill ward! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 25, 2019 17:38:45 GMT
I heard of them because they were responsible for one of my worst ever results in the prediction competition (Poole Town ward I think, can't remember when)
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 25, 2019 20:34:24 GMT
66: Newcastle City Council, Tyne and Wear, North East.
My 2nd home, Newcastle. Unlikely to see much change here. Could well be no change! The arguably more interesting story is the mayoral election for the North of Tyne (here, N Tyneside and Northumberland), where the Labour candidate is momentum backed. One to keep an eye on. Labour would have to have a net loss of 17 to lose their majority (very unlikely). My prediction: Labour HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 26, 2019 21:58:29 GMT
65: Staffordshire Moorlands District Council, West Midlands.
Accidentally found a close council that no one's talking about. Staffordshire Moorlands is a tight Conservative majority, and whilst I reckon they'll hang on (general swing), local politics could see a rise of Inds/LDs. What do we all think? The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 4 to keep their majority. My prediction: Conservative HOLD. 
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