Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,720
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 16, 2019 9:35:59 GMT
76: Bolton Council, Greater Manchester, North West:
Tonight we head over to the home of andrewteale , to see a council that was still Labour held last May but has since fallen to NOC due to a resignation. This is likely the way it is gonna stay with Labour likely to make more losses. Labour need a net gain of +1 and more than the Conservatives to regain the council, the Conservatives need a net gain of +12 to take it. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Labour. (Was Labour HOLD in 2018)  Are you sure about the seats that are up? With 60 seats, 20 should be up for election, and I can only count 18 green circles. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 16, 2019 13:01:44 GMT
76: Bolton Council, Greater Manchester, North West:
Tonight we head over to the home of andrewteale , to see a council that was still Labour held last May but has since fallen to NOC due to a resignation. This is likely the way it is gonna stay with Labour likely to make more losses. Labour need a net gain of +1 and more than the Conservatives to regain the council, the Conservatives need a net gain of +12 to take it. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Labour. (Was Labour HOLD in 2018) Are you sure about the seats that are up? With 60 seats, 20 should be up for election, and I can only count 18 green circles. I count 20; 1 Independent, 1 UKIP, 5 Conservative and 13 Labour. |
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Post by offshore on Feb 16, 2019 13:32:42 GMT
Are you sure about the seats that are up? With 60 seats, 20 should be up for election, and I can only count 18 green circles. I count 20; 1 Independent, 1 UKIP, 5 Conservative and 13 Labour. Only 11 Labour |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 16, 2019 13:39:04 GMT
I count 20; 1 Independent, 1 UKIP, 5 Conservative and 13 Labour. Only 11 Labour Sorry mate, but there’s two rows of five and three in the next row on the semi circle. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2019 13:39:59 GMT
Two rows of four (?)
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 16, 2019 13:57:55 GMT
God my [expletive] numeric dyslexia; you’re right they are rows of four, but to my sight they look five. Incidentally, Bolton Council website doesn’t appear to have the Wards up this year, but it does have a slightly different current composition: Labour - 31, Conservative - 19, Farnworth and Kearsley First - 3, Lib Dem - 3, UKIP - 3, Other – 1 www.bolton.gov.uk/councillors-mayor/councillor-information/1 |
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Post by offshore on Feb 16, 2019 15:22:06 GMT
God my [expletive] numeric dyslexia; you’re right they are rows of four, but to my sight they look five. Incidentally, Bolton Council website doesn’t appear to have the Wards up this year, but it does have a slightly different current composition: Labour - 31, Conservative - 19, Farnworth and Kearsley First - 3, Lib Dem - 3, UKIP - 3, Other – 1 www.bolton.gov.uk/councillors-mayor/councillor-information/1Apology accepted  |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,743
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 16, 2019 15:54:10 GMT
God my [expletive] numeric dyslexia; you’re right they are rows of four, but to my sight they look five. Incidentally, Bolton Council website doesn’t appear to have the Wards up this year, but it does have a slightly different current composition: Labour - 31, Conservative - 19, Farnworth and Kearsley First - 3, Lib Dem - 3, UKIP - 3, Other – 1 www.bolton.gov.uk/councillors-mayor/councillor-information/1 There are five lights! |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 16, 2019 16:21:50 GMT
God my [expletive] numeric dyslexia; you’re right they are rows of four, but to my sight they look five. Incidentally, Bolton Council website doesn’t appear to have the Wards up this year, but it does have a slightly different current composition: Labour - 31, Conservative - 19, Farnworth and Kearsley First - 3, Lib Dem - 3, UKIP - 3, Other – 1 www.bolton.gov.uk/councillors-mayor/councillor-information/1You sure, I thought there was three... |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 16, 2019 21:37:46 GMT
76: Bolton Council, Greater Manchester, North West:
Tonight we head over to the home of andrewteale , to see a council that was still Labour held last May but has since fallen to NOC due to a resignation. This is likely the way it is gonna stay with Labour likely to make more losses. Labour need a net gain of +1 and more than the Conservatives to regain the council, the Conservatives need a net gain of +12 to take it. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Labour. (Was Labour HOLD in 2018) Are you sure about the seats that are up? With 60 seats, 20 should be up for election, and I can only count 18 green circles. Whoops, yeah I missed two Labour circles, 13 Labour seats up not 11. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 16, 2019 22:06:20 GMT
75: St Albans City & District Council, Hertfordshire, East of England:
75 days to go now. St. Albans will be arguably the Conservatives hardest defence of the night, 1 seat is all it takes to lose to NOC. If last year's results were repeated it would make the council very balanced indeed. One to definitely watch! The Lib Dems need a net gain of +12 to gain a majority (unlikely), the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of -1 to hold theirs. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative. 
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 17, 2019 13:51:21 GMT
Ryedale 2015. C 20 Ind 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-1) LD 2. Changes based on 2011: C gain from Ind Norton East (1) C gain from Lib Kirkbymoorside (1) Ind gain from C Malton (1) Ind gain from LD Malton (1) LD gain from C Norton West (1)   Ryedale South West and Wolds were uncontested. The Tory councillor in Wolds ward is Tharik Jainu-Deen, who has previously resigned twice from South Northamptonshire council causing two separate by-elections in Grange Park ward. He appears to be still there in Ryedale though. Split wards in 2015 were: Norton East: C/LD (the Liberal Democrat here is Elizabeth Shields, who won the Ryedale parliamentary by-election in 1986 and will turn 91 later this month) Norton West: C/LD Pickering East: C/Lib Pickering West: Lib/C Eight 2015 maps to go. Coming soon, perhaps: North Dorset, Ribble Valley, West Devon
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 17, 2019 22:25:48 GMT
74: Fermanagh and Omagh District Council, Northern Ireland:
Back to Northern Ireland to take a look at the more nationalist area of Fermanagh and Omagh. Since the last council election here there has been 2 GEs and there was a slight swing from UUP to SF here. For these reasons I'd imagine more of the same, maybe a few more SF gains. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 18, 2019 19:33:31 GMT
73: North Norfolk District Council, East of England.
Today has been a day of resignations, so what better council to look at than North Norfolk? After the '15 election the make up was: Con 33, LD 15. LOOK AT IT NOW! Completely different! Loads of resignations, defections and by-elections and it's now set up for a Lib Dem gain. Boundary changes: 34 wards to 32, 48 seats to 40. My prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from NOC. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 20, 2019 23:31:58 GMT
72: Chorley Borough Council, Lancashire, North West:
Chorley, likely to see a few more Labour gains if a repeat of last year occurs. Not much more to say from me, my knowledge of the area ends there... Labour will hold the council regardless of the result. My “prediction”: Labour HOLD. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
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Post by yorkshireluke on Feb 21, 2019 0:38:20 GMT
71: East Riding of Yorkshire Council, Yorkshire and the Humber:
The East Riding of Yorkshire, (not the East Riding of old mind) has all out elections this year. Don't expect too much change, although there's a good chance of a few Labour/LD gains here and there, the Conservatives will likely gain off UKIP. Posh Yorkshire this. The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of -14 to retain their majority. My prediction: Conservative HOLD. 
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 21, 2019 1:24:29 GMT
The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of -14 to retain their majority. A net loss of -14? So a gain of +14. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 21, 2019 1:38:30 GMT
The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of -14 to retain their majority. A net loss of -14? So a gain of +14. Wouldn’t a net gain of +14 expand their majority, whereas a net loss of -14 would eradicate it? |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,743
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 21, 2019 1:51:20 GMT
A net loss of -14? So a gain of +14. Wouldn’t a net gain of +14 expand their majority, whereas a net loss of -14 would eradicate it? But a loss of minus 14 is a gain of plus 14. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 21, 2019 1:52:16 GMT
Wouldn’t a net gain of +14 expand their majority, whereas a net loss of -14 would eradicate it? But a loss of minus 14 is a gain of plus 14. That’s way over my head at 2am. |
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