Pretty Maps

[froome]

Mar 6, 2019 11:55:23 GMT edgbaston said:

Mar 6, 2019 11:53:17 GMT froome said:

That's what I was assuming as well, but if so, there only appears to be one Labour seat (a split ward with the Conservatives on the western borders). The list of councillors says there are two.

Look closer, it's two very small wards each electing 1 Labour councillor. Must be a small town of sorts.

Yes, you are right. It looks like it is Sudbury, which I would guess is the largest town in the district.

Babergh is a strange sort of non-entity, with very little concentration of population anywhere.

[Chris from Brum]

Mar 6, 2019 12:02:44 GMT froome said:

Mar 6, 2019 11:55:23 GMT edgbaston said:

Look closer, it's two very small wards each electing 1 Labour councillor. Must be a small town of sorts.

Yes, you are right. It looks like it is Sudbury, which I would guess is the largest town in the district.

Babergh is a strange sort of non-entity, with very little concentration of population anywhere.

Sudbury is, I think, the largest town, and is significant enough to have a railway station, now the terminus of a branch called (confusingly) the Gainsborough Line (it goes nowhere near the town of Gainsborough and is named for the artist), off the Great Eastern main line.  Hadleigh is the next largest place, after that it's very small towns (such as Lavenham and Long Melford) and villages, many of them very pretty.  The name comes from the Hundred of Babergh which sort-of covered rought the same area.

[maxque]

Mar 6, 2019 12:02:44 GMT froome said:

Mar 6, 2019 11:55:23 GMT edgbaston said:

Look closer, it's two very small wards each electing 1 Labour councillor. Must be a small town of sorts.

Yes, you are right. It looks like it is Sudbury, which I would guess is the largest town in the district.

Babergh is a strange sort of non-entity, with very little concentration of population anywhere.

Almost right. One of the seats is in Sudbury South, the other in Great Cornard North.

The latter is lost for Labour, as 2-seaters Great Cornard North and Great Cornard South are being merged into a 3-seater Great Cornard. The merger of a marginal ward and a safe Conservative one will be Conservative.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 6, 2019 12:09:33 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 6, 2019 12:02:44 GMT froome said:

Yes, you are right. It looks like it is Sudbury, which I would guess is the largest town in the district.

Babergh is a strange sort of non-entity, with very little concentration of population anywhere.

Sudbury is, I think, the largest town, and is significant enough to have a railway station...

More relevantly for this forum (or is it?) it was significant enough to give its name to a parliamentary constituency for the best part of a hundred years

[cj]

Mar 6, 2019 12:02:44 GMT froome said:

Mar 6, 2019 11:55:23 GMT edgbaston said:

Look closer, it's two very small wards each electing 1 Labour councillor. Must be a small town of sorts.

Yes, you are right. It looks like it is Sudbury, which I would guess is the largest town in the district.

Babergh is a strange sort of non-entity, with very little concentration of population anywhere.

NFS

[yorkshireluke]

Mar 6, 2019 9:08:11 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 6, 2019 1:22:48 GMT yorkshireluke said:

58: Babergh District Council, Suffolk, East of England.



Babergh is one of the councils in Suffolk that's not being merged (even if some think it should). Currently under some kind of weird Con/Ind coalition I can't find details for. Still a Con majority though, that is under threat, although I reckon they'll be fine.



Boundary changes: 27 wards to 24, 43 seats to 32.



My prediction: Conservative HOLD.

You say the numbers indicate the seats per ward, but I think you mean it's 2 seats per ward unless otherwise indicated.

I do yes, issue with making these maps past midnight.

[yorkshireluke]

57: Swindon Borough Council, Wiltshire, South West.



Swindon saw little change last year, however the Conservatives are now 1 away from losing their majority, whether it's the Lib Dems or Labour that make the final gain however, will remain to be seen. Maybe the Tories will fight back? One to watch.



Labour net a net gain of 5 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep theirs.



My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.

[manchesterman]

Given recent events Swindon could be well worth watching closely!

[greenchristian]

I notice that LEAP is now showing 2015 as being complete. Well done andrewteale.

[andrewteale]

Indeed so; I was holding off announcing it here until I'd gone through some sanity checks (checks on the data, I hasten to add, not on my own sanity!). These have now passed and you can have the spreadsheet:
www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2015/2015-results.zip

The final two maps will follow shortly once I've worked out the gains and losses in Forest Heath.

[andrewteale]

Forest Heath 2015. C 21 (-2) West Suffolk Ind 4 (+4) UKIP 2 (+2) Lab 0 (-1) LD 0 (-2) Ind 0 (-1). Changes based on 2011:

C gain from Ind
Lakenheath

C gain from Lab
St Mary's (1)

C gain from LD
Manor

UKIP gain from C
Brandon East (2)

West Suffolk Ind gain from C
Brandon West (1)
Severals (2)

West Suffolk Ind gain from LD
Exning



Split wards in 2015 were:
Brandon East: 2UKIP/1C
Brandon West: C/West Suffolk Ind
Severals: 1C/2West Suffolk Ind

[andrewteale]

Christchurch 2015. C 21 Ind 2 UKIP 1 (+1) LD 0 (-1). Changes based on 2011:

C gain from LD
Town Centre (1)

UKIP gain from C
Grange (1)



North Highcliffe and Walkford was a postponed poll. Split wards in 2015 were:

Grange: C/UKIP

That completes 2015 on LEAP.

[yorkshireluke]

56: Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council, County Durham / North Yorkshire, North East.



The only council to be spread across two counties, Stockton-on-Tees sees Labour defending what should be safe for them, however it will be close and wouldn't take much for this council to slip into NOC. Keep an eye or two out.



The Conservatives need a net gain of 17 to gain a majority (unlikely), Labour need to avoid a net loss of 2 to keep theirs.



My prediction: Labour HOLD.

[yorkshireluke]

55: Dudley Council, West Midlands, West Midlands.



Dudley has seen both Labour and the Conservatives run the show over the last year, however it could be this year where the Conservatives get the full control. However if last year's results were repeated then they'd only have a majority of 1, so either way it'll be close.



Labour need a net gain of 1 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need 2.



My prediction: Conservative GAIN from NOC.

[andrewteale]

Durham 2017. Lab 74 (-20) LD 14 (+5) Ind 13 (+4) C 10 (+6) Derwentside Ind 7 (-1) Spennymoor Ind 5 (+4) North East Party 3 (+3) Wear Valley Ind Group 0 (-1). Changes based on 2013:

C gain from Lab
Aycliffe North and Middridge (2)
Chester-le-Street East
Chester-le-Street South (1)
Evenwood (1)
Sedgefield (1)

Derwentside Ind gain from Lab
Annfield Plain (1)

Ind gain from Lab
Chester-le-Street South (1)
Coxhoe (1)
Crook (1)
Ferryhill (1)
Shotton and South Hetton (1)

Ind gain from Wear Valley Ind Group
Bishop Auckland Town (1)

Lab gain from Derwentside Ind
Burnopfield and Dipton (1)
Lanchester (1)

LD gain from Ind
North Lodge

LD gain from Lab
Belmont (2)
Esh and Witton Gilbert (2)

North East Party gain from Lab
Passfield
Peterlee West (2)

Spennymoor Ind gain from Lab
Spennymoor (2)
Tudhoe (2)



Split divisions in 2017 were:
Annfield Plain: Lab/Derwentside Ind
Aycliffe North and Middridge: 2C/1Lab
Belmont: 2LD/1Lab
Bishop Auckland Town: Ind/Lab
Chester-le-Street South: Ind/C
Consett North: LD/Ind
Coxhoe: 1Ind/2Lab
Crook: 2Ind/1Lab
Evenwood: Lab/C
Ferryhill: 2Ind/1Lab
Sedgefield: C/Lab
Shotton and South Hetton: Ind/Lab
Tanfield: Derwentside Ind/Lab

A quick update on where LEAP stands at the moment with 2015 completed. For 2016 55 out of 124 councils have been uploaded (44%); for 2017 26 out of 90 councils are uploaded (27%) and for 2018 4 out of 150 (3%). I will be concentrating on the outstanding 2016 results for the time being: all but two of these are rotational councils so I will be doing the 2016 and 2018 maps at the same time. Top of my queue at the moment are Havant, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Southampton; but this is subject to change.

I am hoping that there will be an Andrew's Previews 2018 book (to go with the 2016 and 2017 volumes) in due course.

[yorkshireluke]

54: Newry, Mourne and Down District Council, Northern Ireland.



Hopping over the Irish Sea to Newry, Mourne and Down, we find a very nationalist council. So the main question will be who will do better? Sinn Féin or the SDLP? My guess would be the former but we'll have to wait and see.

[yorkshireluke]

53: Woking Borough Council, Surrey, South East.



Woking, a very close council and yet despite that it may end up being a disappointment in terms of changes. Last year's results would see the Conservatives and Lib Dem trade a councillor resulting in no change. If the Lib Dems can defend however, then it will go NOC. My bet.



The Conservatives need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep their majority.



My prediction: NOC GAIN from Conservative.

[yorkshireluke]

52: Scarborough Borough Council, North Yorkshire, Yorkshire and the Humber.



Up to Scarbados, boundary changes here which will make this a tight competition, Conservatives have the edge due to the collapse of UKIP, but it will be a close one for NOC or not. Fancy a chippy now...



Boundary Changes: 25 wards to 20, 50 seats to 46.



My prediction: Conservative GAIN from NOC.

[yorkshireluke]

51: Rutland County Council, East Midlands.



Rutland is up for election this year, despite being a county council it is unitary and has elections now instead of with the rest of the counties. Almost definitely will be a Conservative hold.



Boundary changes: 16 wards to 15, 26 seats to 27.



My prediction: Conservative HOLD.

[jamie]

Mar 12, 2019 0:11:34 GMT yorkshireluke said:

Up to Scarbados

😂😂😂