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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 1:11:49 GMT
With 32.2% counted:
IP 30.3
PP 10.6
Vidreisn 10.1
LG 16.2
Pirates 13.3
BF 7.4
SDA 6.6
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 7:00:04 GMT
With 145,000 of 246,000 votes counted it was:
IP 29.6
LG 16.2
Pirates 13.7
PP 11.6
Vidreisn 10.1
BF 7.3
SDA 6.0
Final results should be ready in an hour.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 30, 2016 7:14:11 GMT
With 145,000 of 246,000 votes counted it was: IP 29.6 LG 16.2 Pirates 13.7 PP 11.6 Vidreisn 10.1 BF 7.3 SDA 6.0 Final results should be ready in an hour. Has the centre-left won the election? I can't tell from the figures. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 30, 2016 7:16:49 GMT
With 145,000 of 246,000 votes counted it was: IP 29.6 LG 16.2 Pirates 13.7 PP 11.6 Vidreisn 10.1 BF 7.3 SDA 6.0 Final results should be ready in an hour. Has the centre-left won the election? I can't tell from the figures. It looks like a dead heat between the left and the right at the moment at the moment |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 7:19:44 GMT
With 145,000 of 246,000 votes counted it was: IP 29.6 LG 16.2 Pirates 13.7 PP 11.6 Vidreisn 10.1 BF 7.3 SDA 6.0 Final results should be ready in an hour. Has the centre-left won the election? I can't tell from the figures. No, IP gain a lot of cheap seats in the "rural" constituencies. The opposition has a majority (incl. Vidreisn). Some of the seats are "held" very marginally at the moment, and will change, but IP have 21 seats for 28.5% of the vote at the last count. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Oct 30, 2016 7:22:06 GMT
With 145,000 of 246,000 votes counted it was: IP 29.6 LG 16.2 Pirates 13.7 PP 11.6 Vidreisn 10.1 BF 7.3 SDA 6.0 Final results should be ready in an hour. Has the centre-left won the election? I can't tell from the figures. The centre-right has won handily, unless they're cack-handed enough to alienate Vithreisn so far that they throw their cards in with the centre-left. The main problem with the polling was that the Pirates - as anyone with half a brain predicted - were overestimated because young people don't vote. Shades of Sinn Fein in the last Irish election: leading the polls until things got serious, and then disappointing even the lower expectations on the day. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 7:48:52 GMT
Has the centre-left won the election? I can't tell from the figures. The centre-right has won handily, unless they're cack-handed enough to alienate Vithreisn so far that they throw their cards in with the centre-left. The main problem with the polling was that the Pirates - as anyone with half a brain predicted - were overestimated because young people don't vote. Shades of Sinn Fein in the last Irish election: leading the polls until things got serious, and then disappointing even the lower expectations on the day. There was a clear swing in the last days so the polling were less "off" than you would think. The Pirates going back on their word/compromising (take your pick..) regarding snap new elections to approve a new constitution played a big part. Some voters also reacted to the Pirates unequivocally allying themselves with the left (those who did no want an LG Premier and hoped for a "centrists united" outcome). Vidreisn has directly promised not to go into a coalition with IP and PP, so it will be very problematic for them to do so. They can also only get their fishing and agricultural reforms and an EU negotiations referendum with the "left". PP are the ultimate protectionists (their hardliners are nicknamed "Progress Commies" (framsóknarkommar) because they want the state to protect and organize the agricultural sector in a "planned economy" fashion). I have used "centre-right" and "centre-left" as convenient shorthands, but Icelandic politics have other at least as important cleavages. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 7:50:17 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 8:21:19 GMT
Both former SDA chairman Árni Páll Árnason and former Foreign Minister Össur Skarphéðinsson (also SDA) are out.
Oddný G. Harðardóttir (SDA) and Benedikt Jóhannesson (Viðreisn) are only in on top-up seats and could still fail to get in.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 8:24:33 GMT
All the top-up seats are currently going to the opposition. IP and PP are so over represented in the rural constituencies they get none.
SDA 3
Vidreisn 2
BF 2
LG 1
Pirates 1
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Post by johnloony on Oct 30, 2016 8:48:22 GMT
It's very complicated compared with other small countries like Liechtenstein (2 and a bit parties) and Malta (2 parties). Perhaps the rural nature of the country means that it's based on local personalities in each town (and the parties built around them) a bit like Ireland.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 9:02:03 GMT
It's very complicated compared with other small countries like Liechtenstein (2 and a bit parties) and Malta (2 parties). Perhaps the rural nature of the country means that it's based on local personalities in each town (and the parties built around them) a bit like Ireland. Iceland is quite urban. 70% of the population lives in Greater Reykjavík. Its increasingly a city state with a lot of hinterland.  But its a lot larger than Malta and Liechtenstein etc. so that reinforces the urban/rural cleavage. The party system is varied because there are a lot of cleavages that cross each other: protectionist/free market, urban/rural, left/right, pro-EU/anti-EU, nationalist/"atlanticist". IP is fx atlanticist and anti-EU, PP traditionally nationalist on both axis. Recently you had the post-crash citizens movement wanting to "change the rules of the game" leading to anti-establishment parties. Traditionally they had a four party system, so not that complex. Leftists, Social Democrats, Populist Agrarians and big tent Conservatives. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 9:07:13 GMT
We are only at 79.2% now. IP at 29% (two points above the final Gallup poll). It will be interesting to see how close Gallup got. I think their poll was accurate at the time it was conducted (if you count in the effect of unreliable young voters).
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 9:17:51 GMT
SDA are at 5.7% and 3 seats, which would be a disaster for them. They would have to consider merging with someone if they go that low.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 10:40:40 GMT
Final result:  |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 30, 2016 10:52:32 GMT
Just want to say thank you to @odo for all her posts on this election, and more generally for elections we would otherwise probably not even know we're taking place ! |
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 30, 2016 11:03:58 GMT
Another social democratic party heading down the PASOK route, I see. You could almost say its becoming a trend?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 11:04:28 GMT
The government parties got the cheap seats and the left paid the most for theirs.
Votes per seat:
SDA 3,631
BF 3,395
LG 3,017
Viðreisn 2,839
Pirates 2,745
PP 2,724
IP 2,619
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Post by jamie on Oct 30, 2016 11:08:44 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 11:34:28 GMT
If Iceland had been one constituency with full PR (like the Constitutional Council recommended) the distribution would have been:
IP 18 (-3)
LG 10 (nc)
Pirates 9 (-1)
PP 7 (-1)
Viðreisn 7 (nc)
BF 5 (+1)
SDA 4 (+1)
Peoples Party 2 (+2)
Dawn 1 (+1)
Giving IP, PP and Viðreisn a narrow 32 seat majority. BF, Viðreisn and SDA get the cheapest seats. So the centrist parties would benefit.
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But its a lot larger than Malta and Liechtenstein etc. so that reinforces the urban/rural cleavage.