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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 15:35:55 GMT
Given that IP have the most reliable voters and the Pirates the least this is most likely a 32-31 win to the "centre-right". Vidreisn has promised not to become a third wheel in the IP-PP coalition and can hardly renege on this without getting crushed next time (though they may cave under pressure). "Centrists united" (discounting one seat for the Pirates) is at 28. Add PP and it gets to 35. PP would be willing to implement a fishing quota reform and a new constitution as long as it didn't remove rural overrepresentation, so they are a more likely partner for the opposition than IP, but with SDG as MP they would be an unreliable partner.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 19:06:42 GMT
Gallup with IP at 27%..
IP 27.0
PP 9.3
Viðreisn 8.8
Pirates 17.9
Left Greens 16.5
SDA 7.4
BF 6.8
Peoples Party 3.4
The survey was conducted from 24 to 28 October with a 3,058 sample and participation rate of 55.0%.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 19:24:11 GMT
So the three "decent" pollsters vary widely in the final polls. Only LG and BF are on a consistent level. The final Gallup poll is often quite close to the result, but a 55% response rate is far from impressive.
IP 27.0/24.7/22.5
PP 9.3/11.4/10.2
Viðreisn 8.8/8.9/11.4
Pirates 17.9/20.5/21.2
Left Greens 16.5/16.2/16.8
SDA 7.4/6.1/5.7
BF 6.8/6.7/6.7
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 20:11:56 GMT
It looks like the storm over Eastern Iceland tomorrow will be less problematic than assumed, so it probably won't delay the vote count, but that is still far from given. Iceland has central vote counting in each constituency and if they can not fly from Egilsstaðir to Akureyri they have to drive the votes 410 km, which takes five hours even in good weather. So they wouldn't arrive before 3am (and likely even later in bad weather). In some of the more remote precincts like Trékyllisvík in Árneshreppur or Mjóifjörður the voters usually vote early and after a couple of hours the volunteers at the polling station phone the ones that haven't voted yet and ask if they are going to. If not they simply close shop and send the votes right away. In the NE constituency votes are counted in Akureyri. Between Akureyri and Vopnafjörður in the east they drive the votes to Akureyri, but from Borgarfjörður Eystri and southwards to Djúpivogur they drive them to Egilsstaðir from where they are flown to Akureyri (weather permitting). In the South there are almost 400 km between Höfn in the east and the vote counting center in Selfoss. In the NW the votes are counted in Borgarnes with close to 400 km to Ísafjörður and Bolungarvík in the Westfiords.  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 20:46:50 GMT
The Coast Guard finally managed to deliver ballots to Grimsey off the north coast by helicopter, if they had failed the whole election would have had to be postponed. The final tv-debate is on at RÚV now. Will be interesting to see if it changes anything (stop the IP momentum). www.ruv.is/frett/sidustu-leidtogaumraedurnar-fyrir-kosningarnar |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 28, 2016 21:24:08 GMT
The Coast Guard finally managed to deliver ballots to Grimsey off the north coast by helicopter, if they had failed the whole election would have had to be postponed. The final tv-debate is on at RÚV now. Will be interesting to see if it changes anything (stop the IP momentum). www.ruv.is/frett/sidustu-leidtogaumraedurnar-fyrir-kosningarnarHelicopter Democracy? |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Oct 28, 2016 21:57:23 GMT
Well, Icelandic is the only Scandinavian language which isn't Danish with different diacritics. (Runs and hides under rodgrod med flode) Finnish? That one ain't even Indo-European.  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 14:35:35 GMT
Turnout in the Southwest was only 4.5% at 11. Much lower turnout than the 6.4% in 2013. If the turnout remain this low IP could win big.
Presidential elections 2016 6.8%
Presidential elections in 2012 6.2%
2009 elections 7.9%
2007 elections 7.5%
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 14:48:06 GMT
One important aspect in the rise of IP is that some foreign investors have hinted at the possibility of renegotiating debt repayment terms if there was a change of government. This has been widely reported in local media and on social media. The background for this is a bit murky since it was obvious that implying that the investors wanted to get rid of the current government since it would fight too hard to protect Icelandic interests was certain to benefit IP/PP. Amble opportunity for conspiracy theories regarding this, of course.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 14:55:34 GMT
The distr.bution of the votes and seats in the last University of Iceland poll to give you an idea of the likely distribution and what is a good or bad result for the parties.  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 16:41:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 20:22:28 GMT
RÚVs electoral coverage lasts from 21.45 to 5.59, so they must assume the final result will be ready before 6am (which may be a little optimistic given the weather).
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 22:17:48 GMT
The first prognosis has a 32-31 led to the four "centre-left" parties.
Pirates 12
LG 11
SDA 5
BF 4
IP 19
PP 6
Vidreisn 6
Peoples Party at 3.4 and Dawn at 2.0, so looks like a lot of wasted leftist votes.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 22:38:07 GMT
The Icelandic National Front got 7.9% in the high school students test election...
The last votes are estimated to be delivered to the vote counting center in Borganes between 4am and 5am; a national result is predicted to be ready at 8am.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 22:44:12 GMT
The high school test election is somewhat interesting. I am surprised Vidreisn are doing that badly.
IP 24.3
Pirates 18.2
Left Greens 15.9
PP 9.0
Icelandic National Front 7.9
SDA 7.8
BF 7.3
Dawn 3.3
Vidreisn 2.6
Peoples front of Iceland 1.5
Humanist Party 1.2
Peoples Party 0.9
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 23:11:15 GMT
With about 20% counted:
IP 20
PP 7
Vidreisn 7
LG 12
Pirates 9
SDA 4
BF 4
But not exactly a representative sample.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 23:32:05 GMT
The current results have a high share from suburbia (SW) where IP is strongest and not a lot of Reykjavík votes. Nothing is in from the NW, but that is a small constituency, so the result will swing towards the left.
PP is doing very badly in their traditional stronghold NE, where SDG is top candidate, but LG is above 21% up there.
The Pirates are underperforming significantly (as expected).
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 0:03:15 GMT
Michigan born Nicole Leigh Mosty from BF looks set to get elected in Reykjavik South, in addition to Pawel Bartoszek from Vidreisn, so two immigrant MPs.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 0:17:26 GMT
This is going to be the worst election for the Progress Party since it was founded in 1916, so like the Danish Conservatives they get their worst ever election in their centenary year.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2016 0:27:25 GMT
With 64,000 of 246,000 counted from all constituencies:
IP 30.3
LG 16.2
Pirates 13.5
PP 10.4
Vidreisn10,1
BF 7.3
SDA 6.8
Peoples Party 3.4
Dawn 1.5
Peoples front of Iceland 0.2
Icelandic National Front 0.1
Humanists 0.0
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