Icelandic Althing election 2016

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In addition to the Speaker IP gets five of the eight committee chairmanships in the Althing.

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The Pirates have urged BF to demand new elections, and intend to present the new government with a motion of no confidence if they do not to put BF under maximum pressure. They claim Bjarni Benediktsson has "lied to the voters and put personal interests above the citizens right to information". 

The background is that Bjarni Benediktsson on Friday presented a report from the Ministry of Finance about Icelanders assets in companies and trusts in tax havens. Bjarni Ben has previously claimed the report wasn't finished until mid-October and there was no time to present it for the Althing before the election, but it turns out it was ready on 13 September and Bjarni Benediktsson was briefed about the content on 5 October (before the three week campaign period). Icelandic media had continuously asked questions about why the report was delayed. Bjarni Ben apologizes for "being imprecise", but claim the report wouldn't have affected the election. 

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Current portfolio distribution (but it should be officially announced later today):

IP:
PM Bjarni Benediktsson
Foreign Minister Guðlaug­ur Þór Þórðar­son
Minister of Culture and Education ?
Minister of Industry and Trade ? (half the Ministry of Business and Innovation)
Minister of the Interior and Justice Ólöf Nordal (the new separate Justice Department will likely get its own minister later on, giving IP six portfolios)
Speaker Kristján Þór Júlí­us­son

Viðreisn:
Minister of Finance Benedikt Jóhannesson
Minister of Fisheries and Agriculture Þor­steinn Víg­lunds­son (half the Ministry of Business and Innovation)
Minister of Social Affairs and Housing Þor­gerður Katrín Gunn­ars­dótt­ir (half the Ministry of Welfare)

BF:
Minister of Healthcare Óttarr Proppé (half the Ministry of Welfare)
Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Björt Ólafsdóttir

This leaves them with only two MPs and Óttarr Proppé may resign as MP to get a substitute in, but if so he can not get his seat back if the government falls.

Compromises:

EU: No government initiative, but MPs from the governing parties can present a proposals of a referendum on membership negotiations towards the end of the term (this is as watered down as it could possibly be). This means that IP will not have to handle a hypothetical "yes" in a referendum before the next election.

Currency: 
A review of the currency policy in 2017 based on the 2012 report from Seðlabanki Íslands, which presented the krona and the euro as the only realistic possible currencies. This is a demand from Viðreisn and means the government will have to discuss pegging the krona to the euro almost right away. 

Agriculture: 
A review of agricultural policy no later than 2019 with the goal of limiting subsides to farmers and increase competition and product availability through elimination of custom fees on for example chicken, pork and cheese (this is kicking the can down the road and there are no immediate liberalizations - unclear what happens to the milk monopoly).

Fisheries:
Higher catch fees. Part of the quotas will be leased out for 33 years instead of being given for an indefinite period (likely only for new species). 

Health:
More funds allocated to the healthcare sector to decrease waiting lists and lower patient fees. A new University Hospital will be build at Hringbraut in Reykjavík to replace the old Landspitalinn. 

Constitution:
A review of the Constitution during the term (unspecified when).

Other goals:
Higher retirement age, investments in better care for the elderly, longer parental leave and increased gender equality demands to large and medium sized companies. 

All in all this is a very good result for IP (apart from the currency review) and a meagre one for the Liberals, and its hard to see why BF, which stands to gain in an election, has accepted such a paltry result. But I suppose the thinking is that IP at least will be able to deliver on the relatively small concessions they have given, while a minority government with SDA and the Pirates or a second election may lead to nothing. Only the currency matter has the potential to cause a backbencher rebellion in IP, so in that regard the one-seat majority may hold.

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SDA chairman Logi Mar Einarsson is pretty sharp in his condemnation of the new government, saying Bright Future and Viðreisn were "sailing under false flag" during the election campaign and merely posing as opposition. Also states that the government continues the status quo based on special interests and "money forces", which will now be even more powerful than before.

[Devil Wincarnate]

@odo, you might be able to help me here as I can't read Icelandic, but where are they proposing this new hospital on the Hringbraut goes?  The only spare land I can think of there is either next to Valur's ground- or are they finally thinking of gobbling up the city airport's land?

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Newly elected MP Þór­dís Kol­brún Reyk­fjörð Gylfa­dótt­ir is the new Minister of Tourism, Industry, and Innovation. She was director of their parliamentary office before the election and is a former assistant to Ólöf Nordal, pretty clear that she was selected because of the dearth of experienced women after the deselection/exodus, but they could have done worse.

The other IP ministers
Foreign Minister Guðlaug­ur Þór Þórðar­son
Minister of Justice Sigríður Á. Andersen
Minister of Transport, Rural Affairs and Local Government Jón Gunn­ars­son (probably still including telecommunication..)
Minister of Education and Culture Kristján Þór Júlí­us­son (the current Minister of Health)

Kristján Þór Júlí­us­son and Bjarni Ben are the only IP ministers continuing. Ólöf Nordal is apparently too ill to serve. Corruption tainted Minister of Culture Illugi Gunnarsson weren't reelected, and the Minister of Business Ragnheiður Elín Árnadóttir were among the deselected "experienced women in their 40s".

Unn­ur Brá Kon­ráðsdótt­ir is new Speaker. She is on the europhile IP left wing and was once rumored as a potential defector to Viðreisn, so Bjarni Ben probably prefers her outside of the cabinet.

Its a fairly weak line up for an IP cabinet.

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Jan 10, 2017 11:06:49 GMT @odo said:

Current portfolio distribution (but it should be officially announced later today):

(...)

Viðreisn:
Minister of Finance Benedikt Jóhannesson
Minister of Fisheries and Agriculture Þor­steinn Víg­lunds­son (half the Ministry of Business and Innovation)
Minister of Social Affairs and Housing Þor­gerður Katrín Gunn­ars­dótt­ir (half the Ministry of Welfare)

BF:
Minister of Healthcare Óttarr Proppé (half the Ministry of Welfare)
Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Björt Ólafsdóttir

The "second tier" appointments for Viðreisn were reversed with Þor­gerður Katrín Gunn­ars­dótt­ir becoming Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries, while Þor­steinn Víg­lunds­son gets Social Affairs. Probably too big a snub to let Þor­gerður Katrín get the least prestigious department (fisheries obviously being high status in Iceland). She would have been a much more competent Minister of Finance than Benedikt Jóhannesson, but it was always clear he would pull rank. The BF portfolios were as expected. 

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Jan 10, 2017 22:40:36 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

@odo , you might be able to help me here as I can't read Icelandic, but where are they proposing this new hospital on the Hringbraut goes?  The only spare land I can think of there is either next to Valur's ground- or are they finally thinking of gobbling up the city airport's land?

"The new hospital will be a merger between the two hospitals Hringbraut Hospital and Fossvogur Hospital, and the purpose is to build a state-of-the-art super hospital which matches the requirements for treatment methods, higher patient capacity, better patient facilities and more centralised hospital services. The merger will be effected at the hospital in Hringbraut which, in addition to the existing 53,000 square metres, is to be expanded by a further 75,000 square metres."
www.niras.com/current-events/news/2015/iceland%20gets%20its%20first%20super%20hospital.aspx

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There are some interesting elements in the long government agreement. One of the more remarkable is that the government will not implement new preferential investment contracts for polluting heavy industry (mainly aluminum smelters). This means in practice that the expansion of heavy industry in Iceland is complete, as no heavy industry has decided to start operations in Iceland without a first contract that guarantees a substantial discount on taxes and energy fees. 

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The new government was officially appointed today and the new ministers were in audience with the president at Bessastaðir at 12.30pm after outgoing PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson had handed in his resignation; the first Council of State meeting began at 13.30.

Besides the de facto stop for the expansion of heavy industry some of the other elements in the government agreement that will have long term effects are:

The government will gradually sell off all its shares in the reconstructed banks, stating that they will attempt to secure broad ownership and a transparent process. This privatization will block the left's desire to create a public non-profit banking sector and its also likely that the sale will primarily be to professional investors rather than the voucher based gift to all citizens that many on the left had wanted. 

Compared to the IP/PP government the new coalition will be greener. Besides the stop for expanding aluminum smelters, Björt Ólafsdóttir from BF gets to coordinate all climate measures and lowering fuel emissions in land and sea transport will be on top of her agenda. 

State fees from the energy intensive industry will be placed in a stability fund, which shall primarily guarantee that a part of the income from natural resources goes to future generations, but also function as a reserve to even out drastic swings in the business cycle (through emergency loans etc.). 

Iceland will take significantly more quota refugees and the immigration policy will be liberalized (PP are hardliners here and BF the most pro-immigration party). 

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One significant piece of trivia: With the appointment of Bjarni Benediktsson all IP chairmen since the foundation of the party in 1929 have become Prime Ministers. A record I doubt any other party in a European democracy can match on the national level. 

One small correction: The agreement does open up for giving part of the shares in the banks to ordinary citizens free of charge.