Icelandic Althing election 2016

[Deleted]

Óttarr Proppé says the talks the leaders of the groups have had has led to Bright Future wanting to test whether an agreement can be reached on the reform issues. He still mentions both fishing, farming, EU and monetary politics. 

Benedikt Jóhannesson says that the formal negotiations may take from a week to ten days. Says he doesn't worry about them and IP not reaching each other when it comes to EU affairs.

"I think we just have to go into these talks with a view that we can reach an acceptable solution. What is next I of course do not know at this moment because the talks are not final."

Even if this government gets going I could see it collapse fairly quickly. There is also significant residual bitterness against the "defectors" within Viðreisn in IP.

[Devil Wincarnate]

What do you think are the chances of a new election and if so who benefits?

[Deleted]

Nov 11, 2016 21:23:27 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

What do you think are the chances of a new election and if so who benefits?

I think its rather low. There is a strong tradition in Iceland for "making it work" and at least try a coalition for a couple of years, and voters would punish the parties seen as unwilling to compromise. It would be up to Viðreisn. If they refuse coalitions with both IP and LG (as well as working with PP) there would be no realistic alternative. LG would likely be very accommodating, so it would be a matter of Benedikt Jóhannesson insisting he should be PM (which is considered a bit of a joke by many due to his political inexperience).

Viðreisn would be blamed for a collapse, and BF both for the collapse and defecting from the centre-left four party bloc right away. SDA may drop below the threshold as the party appear irrelevant, but centrist europhile middle class voters need to go somewhere, so maybe they will receive some disgruntled BF and Viðreisn voters. Hard to say.

I think there would be consolidation behind IP and LG, and that PP would remain on the same level, but IP/PP could well be stuck at 31 seats anyway (they got a couple of cheap seats to defend). Its hard to say whether the Pirates would gain on increased frustration with the political system, or be punished for opting out of the government formation process right from the start. But their offer of outside support to an LG, BF, Viðreisn government may also be viewed positively. I tend to think that they would at least remain stable and possibly gain a bit.

If IP, Viðreisn and BF form a government and it quickly collapses the party causing the collapse would be blamed the most and the opposition gain (incl. PP). BF would run a high risk of ending up below the threshold. A government with IP is a bit of a gamble for them. 

...

Bjarni Benediktsson now says that he will solve the EU-referendum question by presenting the matter for the Althing. This will essentially let LG decide. Katrín Jakobsdottír said in spring that she is in favor of a referendum, but there only needs to be three defectors in the eurosceptic party to block it, so it could be very close. Its hard to see how this could work as one of the losers of such a vote may decide to topple the government (most likely if its a "yes" and an IP backbencher defects to PP). It would also be quite strange to let an opposition party decide on such a vital matter.

[Deleted]

The continued strength of this whole EU business has surprised me, as I thought the issue would lose importance post-Brexit (the UK being by far the largest Icelandic trading partner within the EU). 

Before the 2013 election Bjarni Benediktsson promised a referendum on the future of the EU negotiations. After the election he went back on his words saying it was a "political impossibility" (given his coalition with PP and internal resistance). Viðreisn was founded (initially as a network) by the part of the europhile wing of IP, that couldn't accept this. Leaving IP with very few europhiles. 

Whereas SDA and - to a lesser extent - BF have toned down their pro-EU sentiments post-Brexit Viðreisn have made a referendum an ultimate demand.

If IP doesn't enter into coalition with "the Liberals" the alternative is LG, Viðreisn, BF, (SDA) and such a coalition would hold a referendum, by being in government Bjarni Benediktsson gets control over the process, but the risk of an internal rebellion is significant. 

Bjarni Ben can:

1) Hope that LG defectors block the referendum proposal in the Althing.
2) Hope that it will fail in the referendum.

There is currently a significant majority for reopening the membership negotiations, but IP, PP and LG (or at least parts of the party) would campaign on it being a de facto referendum on EU membership, which there is a clear majority against (the balance being made up of people believing the issue is too important to be left to the politicians - "let the people decide"). In reality such a referendum would likely be very close and the opponents have the advantage of owning most of the non-public media. 

While its a gamble a referendum also holds advantages for IP. If a majority rejects reopening the EU negotiations the matter would be removed from the political agenda for at least a decade. The problem for Bjarni Ben is that his right wing (along with PP) simply isn't prepared to take the risk of opening up any possibility of EU-membership. So he needs to put massive pressure on them and can not afford even one defection.

The second most controversial issue is the currency matter. Before Bjarni Benediktsson became party leader in 2009 he advocated that Iceland adopted the Euro and even held the door open for Icelandic EU-membership. Since he has adopted the party line. He is no doubt also personally against EU-membership by now (at least post-Brexit), but its clear that Bjarni Ben isn't a hardcore eurosceptic and pegging the krona to the Euro (or letting it float within a band) would likely be acceptable to him, but is a no-go for most of his party. 

Both Viðreisn and BF wants to ditch the krona. They claim the currency is too small to be stable and that this results in overly high interest rates and inflation. Iceland should therefore either adopt a new currency or peg the krona to "a larger currency".

The only possible compromise on this is to let a commission look into the matter, but since Seðlabanki Íslands did this a few years ago, that would be a too obvious decoy. Furthermore SÍ concluded that the Euro was the only realistic option, which makes matters worse. Pegging the krona to fx. the Canadian dollar (both economies depend on commodity prizes, so that makes some sense), is less toxic for the Icelandic right wing. 

[Deleted]

Former PM Johanna Sigurdardottir slams Ottar Proppé on facebook:

"Yikes, Óttarr Proppé. Do not avail the right wing forces in society to govern with the support of Bright Future when you have a better option in sight. A government of reform and change led by Katrín Jakobsdóttir is what people are calling for, not that Bright Future becomes a crutch to an Engeyjarætti government. We have to eradicate corruption and privileges in society and enhance equality and justice. This will not be done by such a government"

The Engeyjar-dynasty are the descendants of a couple, who lived on Engey near Reykjavík in the the early 19th century, Olöf Snorradottir (1783-1844), who was born and raised on the island and her husband the shipbuilder Petur Gudmundsson (1786-1852). They have no less than 5,000 descendants of which a number have been prominent in politics, academia and business. Both Bjarni Benediktsson and Benedikt Jóhannesson belong to this family (though different branches) and Benedikt is a traditional family name.

[Crimson King]

wow, and I thought Queensbury was inbred!

[Deleted]

Nov 13, 2016 0:22:54 GMT Crimson King said:

wow, and I thought Queensbury was inbred!

Iceland has done a remarkably good job of not becoming inbred due to their long genealogical records (both written and oral).

Recently they have even developed a dating app based on these records where you can check if (and how) you are related to potential sex partners.
...

This particular family settled in Seltjaness and Vesturbær in Reykjavík shortly before the turn of the 20th century when the modern fishing economy developed and the small town started to grow into a modern city. They were succesful and stayed in the area at a time when many emigrated. If you are a wealthy and fertile family you can multiply quite fast. 8 children, 82 grandchildren and around 700 great-grand children almost all staying in the same town and moving from shipbuilding and fishing into shipping, trade, academia and Conservative politics and you have the foundation for a dominant family. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 13, 2016 0:22:54 GMT Crimson King said:

wow, and I thought Queensbury was inbred!

I think you know (in fact as you're a GP in the area, I know you know) that as far as Bradford goes, it's areas like Manningham that have an issue with inbreeding. I wonder why you opted to make Queensbury the object of your joke instead?

[Crimson King]

It's a long standing joke in the area - with some basis in fact, a lot of the villages around bradford are famously insular and Queensbury is said to be cut of from the rest of civilisation by snow for most of the year. It predates any issues about cousin marriage in the Pakistani background population.

I guess its only in the last 100 years or so that people have moved around much - you can still say that some surnames are "typical Thornton" and so on

Edit - A quick google suggests that the population of Iceland is similar to that of the City of Bradford (not the whole met district) which does explain why they do have to take care

[Arthur Figgis]

I any case, Queensbury isn't exclusively white and inbred- it has a large population of black dykes.

[Crimson King]

Nov 14, 2016 12:57:03 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

I any case, Queensbury isn't exclusively white and inbred- it has a large population of black dykes.

badum tish!

well we do make them there

[AdminSTB]

Nov 14, 2016 12:57:03 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

I any case, Queensbury isn't exclusively white and inbred- it has a large population of black dykes.

Lived up there for eight years (my parents still do). BRRRR! (1100 feet above sea level IIRC).

[Deleted]

Bjarni Bene­dikts­son has told the president that his attempts to form a government with Viðreisn and BF has failed. 

Katrín Jakobsdóttir will be called to the president at 1am tomorrow to receive the mandate. Benedikt Jóhannesson says he "does not rule out cooperation with the left" and Óttarr Proppé is "ready to work with the Left Greens if they wanted to cooperate". 

[Deleted]

It will be interesting to see how this ends. I think Benedikt Jóhannesson may have overplayed his hand. If the object was to be get policy concessions (or even become PM) the logical order would have been to start negotiating with the left and threatened to opt for IP instead if they didn't meet his demands. Now he has started with presenting IP with unrealistic and ultimative demands (the final straw must have been pegging the krona to the Euro, which Bjarni Ben couldn't possibly accept and where no possible compromise existed). LG now knows that Viðreisn will either have to team up with them or risk getting punished by the voters for causing a new election (even a WINTER election, those aren't popular in Iceland... ).

Though the left may be so hungry to get back in office and avoid the risk of an IP victory that they will still accommodate Viðreisn. But its hard to see LG accepting pegging the krona to the Euro. That would cause internal conflicts with the hardcore eurosceptics. The only compromise I can see is letting the issue be part of a referendum, but even that would be quite problematic.

It seems Viðreisn simply prioritized not being seen as part of a leftist bloc over both the issues getting a chance to lead the government. There was fierce internal critique in BF of Óttarr Proppé "saving the corrupt IP" and that was likely a significant factor behind the collapse as well. It seemed they threw in the currency issue in the final phase to be sure the negotiations collapsed.

[Deleted]

The negotiations stranded on "the Liberals" demanding that part of the current fishing quota rights were recalled and auctioned off, IP would only accept auctioning off mackerel quotas, which haven't been distributed yet as it is a new species in Icelandic waters. IP was also reluctant to accept an EU negotiations referendum, but it all ended before they got to the final talks about EU. 

[Deleted]

The Pirates now say that they are willing to enter government "if necessary" and that their offer to provide outside support was only to make things less complicated. 

So far the two Liberal parties seem reluctant to work with the Pirates. Birgitta Jóns­dótt­ir has made it harder for them by first accusing BF of already forming a secret alliance with Viðreisn prior to the election, and saying that "Viðreisn have again placed themselves in an impossible situation, because they will not work with any potential majority". The latter is correct, but hardly a smart thing to say. 

Unclear if the president has required Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir to try forming a majority government (as he did with Bjarni Ben), which could be decisive. 

[lennon]

Given those Pirate quotes - there is a part of me that wonders who benefits from new elections? Clearly you can't be seen to be the cause, but would the Pirates get more traction with an approach along the lines of 'look - we clearly need a new constitutional settlement, we can't even form a government despite us being willing to try and help'

[Deleted]

Nov 16, 2016 14:02:31 GMT lennon said:

Given those Pirate quotes - there is a part of me that wonders who benefits from new elections? Clearly you can't be seen to be the cause, but would the Pirates get more traction with an approach along the lines of 'look - we clearly need a new constitutional settlement, we can't even form a government despite us being willing to try and help'

A new constitution would not make it easier to form a government. In this conttext the CC proposal would only have moved 2 seats from IP/PP to LG/BF and that would not have openede up new opportunities.

[Deleted]

First MMR poll after the elections shows the Pirates continue to crash and LG and BF cutting into their vote. Viðreisn keep their level:

IP 26.0 (-3.0)
LG 20.7 (+4.8)
Pirates 11.9 (-2.6)
Viðreisn 10.6 (+0.1)
BF 9.6 (+2.4)
PP 9.4 (-2.1)
SDA 5.6 (-0.1)

People's Party 3.4 (-0.1)
Dawn 0.9 (-0.8)
Icelandic National Front 0.6 (+0.4)
People's Front of Iceland 0.5 (+0.2)
Humanist Party 0.0 (nc)

Others 0.7

[Deleted]

LG top a Gallup poll of what parties voters think should be included in the government:

Left Greens 67%
Bright Future 66%
Viðreisn 59%
IP 57%

Pirates 34%
PP 24%
SDA 20%

LG, BF, IP and Viðreisn voters almost all want their parties to be in government, whereas many SDA, PP and Pirate voters prefer their parties to remain in opposition.

The poll reflects that many protectionist/eurosceptic/rural IP and PP voters prefer LG to Viðreisn.