Icelandic Althing election 2016

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After the first round of government talks it seems clear that a government will revolve around the Viðreisn/BF axis. The two centrist, Liberal parties are part of any possible coalition. It seems IP will just have to wait and see whether the Liberals pick them or LG.

The Pirates have suggested a minority government of LG, Viðreisn and BF with outside support from them and SDA. Benedikt Jóhannesson has called this proposal "interesting". He wants a mandate to form a government and hasn't explicitly ruled out working with the Pirates, but dismissed a five party opposition government as "joining Team Pirate". A leftist/liberal coalition would open up the possibility of agricultural and fishing quota reform, and LG would be willing to accept an EU-negotiations referendum (even if they would campaign for a "no") and unlike IP they would probably be willing to let Benedikt Jóhannesson lead it. Whereas it would be quite difficult for Bjarni Benediktsson to accept political newcomer Benedikt Jóhannesson (in charge of an IP breakaway with a third of their seats) as PM after there has been intense internal critique of letting the "small" PP hold the job. 

BF chairman Óttarr Proppé has also proposed that Benedikt Jóhannesson gets the mandate. "We have emphasized that we are a liberal, centrist reform party, and see great cooperation possibilities and synergy between us and Viðreisn". They do not exclude any options in advance. Whether IP, BF and Viðreisn, a five part opposition government or the LG, BF, Viðreisn option. 

PP has just said they are prepared to enter government, but it seems no one are interested in working with the deeply  divided party, and SDA are in deep crisis and will not enter any coalition. 

LG has recommended a five party government of the opposition parties led by Katrín Jakobdóttir, but that has already been ruled out by Viðreisn, so mostly a formality. 

IP obviously want Bjarni Benediktsson to get the mandate, but based on the first round it would be most likely that the President gives Benedikt Jóhannesson the first try.

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The problem with IP, BF and Viðreisn is that it only has a one seat majority and no natural support among the rest of the parties (PP would view it as a threat to their core interests and the left as economically right wing). If Bjarni Benediktsson gives even small concessions on agriculture, fishing or EU it would only take one disgruntled IP backbencher to topple the government. But given the traditional Icelandic animosity towards minority governments and that it seems to be the only realistic majority option it may still be the most likely. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 31, 2016 9:32:42 GMT @odo said:

Oct 31, 2016 7:55:35 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Not the final tv-debate, that was Oddny.

Ah, didn't see the final one. He turned up on the main debate I saw and on some kind of mini debate.

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The most accurate "poll" turned out to be the sale of Dunkin' Donuts in party colours and with party acronyms in frosting. 

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Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir says that the possibility of a five party government is severely reduced now that Odd­ný G. Harðardótt­ir has resigned (the new SDA chairman has no government experience and only three brief stints as a parliamentary altern) and LG will "look into" the Pirates proposal of a three party minority government. 

SDA have confirmed they will not enter a coalition, but a prepared to support a minority government.

Meanwhile Bjarni Bene­dikts­son has negotiated with Ótt­arr Proppé about a government of IP, BF and Viðreisn. 

So the situation is now that no one are pursuing other options than the Liberals + IP, or Liberals + VG. Though Viðreisn has declined to comment on who they are negotiating with, and BF keep saying they are prepared to work with everybody, but "there is a long walk through the tunnel to get to a cooperation with PP".   

The only "dissident" is the Mayor of the (staunchly conservative) Vestmanna Islands Elliði Vign­is­son, who wants a coalition of IP, LG and either BF or Viðreisn similar to the 1944 Ný­sköp­un­ar­stjórn­in (innovation government) between IP, the Social Democrats and Socialists, which modernized post-war Iceland.

"to build confidence, ensure stability, strengthen infrastructure and welfare, which will be best done by a government that is supported by a strong majority and have broad appeal".

Icelanders tend to be nostalgic about their iconic governments of yore - and the one that created the basis for the young republic has a special place. 

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The president has summoned Bjarni Benediktsson to Bessastaðir at 11am, which means he get the mandate after Guðni Th. met informally with the three PM contenders Bjarni Benediktsson, Katrín Jakobsdóttir and Benedikt Jóhannesson yesterday. Bjarni Ben getting the mandate doesn't preclude the other party leaders from continued negotiations, as the parties are free to build coalitions without the involvement of the president, but it does give him an advantage. 

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Bjarni Benediktsson will now consult all party leaders and have to repeat back to the president about his progress, but its hard to see he has any other realistic option than IP, BF and Viðreisn as the two Liberal parties can not allow themselves to team up with both IP and PP as that would block free market policies on both fishing (IP) and agriculture (PP). IP is also more likely to accept an EU negotiations referendum.

There is still a significant chance/risk that the three parties can not agree - and Benedikt Jóhannesson may choose to accept the offer of a coalition with LG in return for becoming PM if IP isn't willing to give concessions on fishing, agriculture and an EU-referendum.

Given that the budget will need to be approved and a new Althing can not be convened before a government is in place they only have about 1.5 weeks to finalize the government formation process, so its limited how much time Bjarni Benediktsson will get before another (likely Benedikt Jóhannesson) gets the mandate.

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BF chairman Óttarr Proppé says that a government with Vidreisn and the Independence Party is "not a particularly exciting option. There is pretty far between us and Independence on a lot of issues in addition to it being a narrow majority." He says he prefer either a broad coalition together with both IP and LG, or the five opposition parties working together. He clearly fears being "clegged" in a coalition with IP. Unless Bjarni Benediktsson is prepared to give major concessions it will be hard for BF to survive such a government. 

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This is getting increasingly complicated.

Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson has promised that PP will not insist SDG gets in the government if they are included in a coalition (and it has been clear that SDG is isolated in his desire to keep up the internal feud) and that has made them a possible option. Though hard to see IP, PP, BF and Viðreisn (as the two Liberal parties can not afford to be seen saving the previous unpopular government), but LG, PP, BF and Viðreisn is mentioned as an alternative (29 seats). New SDA leader Logi Már Einarsson doesn't rule out SDA could be in a government, which would give it a slim 1 seat majority. 

First step, Benedikt Jóhannesson and Óttarr Proppé are now negotiating as a team. They are meeting Bjarni Ben today. They demand: 
a) electoral reform making Iceland one constituency
b) a market based fishing system
c) "symbolic" changes in agricultural policies  (ie. not tearing up the recent agricultural agreement, but a start to liberalisation - could be an end to the milk monopoly and cutting tariffs on foreign produce
d) a referendum on EU negotiations

IP prefer including PP, claiming it is a new party after the leadership change and the seven non-SDG MPs should be seen as a group. The protectionist wing in IP prefer a grand coalition with LG (ideally IP, PP, LG). If the negotiations with the Liberals fail Bjarni Ben will have to give up as he doesn't have any other realistic majority (and will have to report back to the president within days).

Next step would be negotiating a centre/centre-left coalition. Its assumed the president will act conservatively and give the next mandate to Katrin Jakobsdóttir, as head of the second largest party, rather than Benedikt Jóhannesson. She will try LG, (SDA), BF and Viðreisn with outside support from the Pirates. As Viðreisn seem reluctant to agree to a government based solely on the opposition the next option is LG, (SDA), BF, Viðreisn and PP, with PP agreeing to a comprehensive fishing quota reform (more radical than with IP) and a new constitution (but still with some rural overrepresentation). Benedikt Jóhannesson could get more of his goals implemented with an opposition, but fear being associated with "the left".

LG insiders say to te press that the party will only consider coalition with IP after months of deadlock, and even in that situation would probably prefer new elections. 

If this drags out more than a couple of weeks the caretaker administration will have to present Bjarni Benediktsson's budget draft to the Althing and since the former government parties are now in the minority this could be "interesting". They would almost certainly have to make changes. 
....

As part of a reconstruction/downsizing of their party organization SDA SG Krist­ján Guy Burgess has been fired and his staff has resigned (though some will likely reapply for their old jobs). Burgess is a former NATO diplomat and assistant foreign minister 2005-2009. Its an usual name, but I haven't been able to find out who his father is or if there is any family connection to the Guy Burgess. 

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The irony of the current situation is that the best hope of preventing fishing quota reform and opening up the EU question for Big Fishing and the IP right wing is a government with the Left Greens. 

Bjarni Benediktsson is a moderate (some even say he is personally pro-EU, though likely not post-Brexit) and has strengthened his internal position significantly in recent years. Once he was considered a fill-in during the crisis only useful until much more popular Hanna Birna Kristjansdóttir could step in and take the party back to former glory, but after having won two elections and been seen as a competent Minister of Finance this has changed. With HBK scandalized and out of politics and right wing éminence grise Davíð Oddsson weakened by his humiliating defeat in the presidential election Bjarni Ben has more control of the party than ever. Iceland becoming one constituency would weaken the rural and protectionist part of the party, and a fishing quota reform would cull the power of the big fishing companies, so not undesirable from Bjarni Benediktsson's personal POV, if he could get away with presenting it as a necessity (the lesser evil), but he would be up against strong internal opposition. 

[Deleted]

20% of a party's voters can demote a candidate one place on the party list by crossing out his or her name. This very rarely happens. 

18% in the NE crossed out Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, but even if 20% had done he would still have gotten in as PP got two seats- 

SDG's ally Minister of Fishing and Agriculture Gunnar Bragi Svensson (demoted from Foreign Minister) was crossed out by 10.7% of PP voters in the NW.

Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir was crossed out by 8.2% of Viðreisn voters in the SW (her husband, got a large loan written-off by the bank he had a top job in)

The next three on the list are Minister of Social Affairs and PP left winger Eygló Harðardóttir with 4.2%, LG veteran and former Minister of Finance Steingrímur J. Sigfússon with 3.4% and leftist Pirate Queen Birgitta Jónsdóttir whom 3.0% of Pirate voters in her constituency crossed out. 

3.32% crossed out a name, down from 4.15% in 2013, so generally the voters have been less actively hostile towards their parties candidates. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

That's intriguing. And for all her party's popularity, Birgitta is a bit sinister so that's not too surprising.

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2016 23:26:11 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

That's intriguing. And for all her party's popularity, Birgitta is a bit sinister so that's not too surprising.

I doubt its her personality that made some cross her out. 

1) many think she behaves as if she is the chairman of the party (which has no formal leader), or even as if she owned the party
2) she had promised to leave politics after this term, but changed her mind (saying the rest lacked parliamentary experience)
3) she is considered too far left my many in the party 
4) she won a power struggle with their best debater and most popular politician Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson, who then gave up on running for parliament 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 3, 2016 12:00:43 GMT @odo said:

The irony of the current situation is that the best hope of preventing fishing quota reform and opening up the EU question for Big Fishing and the IP right wing is a government with the Left Greens. 

Using the dubious pleasures of Google Translate (Icelandic being the one Germanic language where I can barely work out anything at all), it appears that IP are indeed making noises about working with the Left Greens:

www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2016/11/04/hefur_engum_dyrum_lokad/

I will defer to your knowledge and linguistic skills though!

[Deleted]

Nov 4, 2016 20:50:22 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Nov 3, 2016 12:00:43 GMT @odo said:

The irony of the current situation is that the best hope of preventing fishing quota reform and opening up the EU question for Big Fishing and the IP right wing is a government with the Left Greens. 

Using the dubious pleasures of Google Translate (Icelandic being the one Germanic language where I can barely work out anything at all), it appears that IP are indeed making noises about working with the Left Greens:

www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2016/11/04/hefur_engum_dyrum_lokad/

I will defer to your knowledge and linguistic skills though!

He says that it is no secret that LG sees considerable hindrances for cooperation with the Independence Party. 

[Deleted]

Bjarni Ben says elsewhere (to RUV) that they are interested in working with LG, but "not for any price", and that "there are also advantages to having a narrow majority as everybody needs to stick together". So it sounds like he is starting to accept IP, BF, Vidreisn is their only realistic option.

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It looks increasingly likely that Bjarni Ben will have to give up on forming a government and he has hinted that he will relinguish the mandate in the beginning of next week if there is no progress.

The IP, Viðreisn, BF combination now seems unlikely both because Bjarni Ben doesn't want to rely on a one seat majority given the significant risk of defections (from either side), and because the policy differences are too large. Viðreisn and BF have been adamant in their refusal to incorporate PP in a coalition.

The europhobic right wing in IP has pressured Bjarni Ben into trying IP, LG and PP, but while the old guard in LG (incl. her predecessor as party leader Steingrímur Sigfússon) has said nothing should be ruled out it is clear that Katrín Jakobsdóttir doesn't want this, and Bjarni Ben has stated that he will not pursue this option further. BF has also ruled out IP, LG, BF (with BF giving up on the EU referendum). They are sticking to their alliance with Viðreisn.

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Yesterday Óttarr Proppé and Benedikt Jóhannesson conducted a joint meeting with the two parties MPs and informed them about their talks with Bjarni Benediktsson.

They have demanded a new agricultural agreement, a radical reform of the fishing quota system and an EU negotiations referendum (something Bjarni Benediktsson can not agree to without risking an internal rebellion). 

Bjarni Benediktsson has reportedly offered a "thorough review" of the agricultural agreement and a minor part of the fishing quotas put on auction as a test (following the Faroese model), but this doesn't seem to be enough for the two Liberal parties. 

The three party leaders are meeting today and its now considered likely that Bjarni Ben will give up if there is no breakthrough. After this the mandate will with 90% certainty go to Katrín Jakobsdóttir. 

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I think that Benedikt Jóhannesson and Viðreisn have been rather irresponsible in this process given that government formation needs to move fast because of the budget negotiations.

The three anti-EU parties (IP, PP & LG) have a majority in parliament and the only one of these parties that can handle an EU-neotiations referendum without an internal rebellion is LG. So if Viðreisn insist on getting one as a requirement for entering a coalition their only choice is teaming up with LG. This was obvious from the outset.

This charade seems only to be going on so Benedikt Jóhannesson can say to his ex-IP voters that he has given Bjarni Ben a fair chance (which he hasn't).

It is far from given LG, BF and Viðreisn can agree (especially if Benedikt Jóhannesson insists he wants to be PM), but its hard to see other options if IP can not be included (though you never know in Icelandic politics).

LG (or rather its predecessor) and PP are historical allies as the nationalist and protectionist parties in the post-war four party system, but given the state PP is in and the coalition partners they would need a government based on these two parties seem very unlikely.

[Deleted]

Well, it seemed it was just a tactical play. 

Bjarni Benediktsson has announced he starts formal government formation talks with BF and Viðreisn tomorrow, though no info on a compromise between the three, so it may just be to avoid handing over the mandate.