Icelandic Althing election 2016

[Deleted]

IP and PP got 51.1% in 2013 and IP, PP and Viðreisn got 51.0% this time, so in that sense its status quo. Its of course a bit more complex since Vidreisn also attracted former BF and SDA voters (+ IP moderates), but the net result is strikingly similar.

Though a lot of the voters going from PP to Viðreisn came via the Pirates. The drift of suburban PP voters to Viðreisn has long been a given, but it was surprising that IP ended up gaining votes.

PP are now mostly down to their rural and rural born or affiliated core vote, which is about 10% of voters.

[Deleted]

Given that SDA will not enter a government with a mere three seats there are three possible coalitions as I see it:

1) LG, Pirates, BF and Vidreisn. It only has 31 seats, but given that SDA would provide reliable outside support it could work. Would require some compromises. Could agree on fishing, farming and EU referendum, though not pegging the currency (but there is no way Vidreisn could get that). Might be able to agree on a new constitution and new elections in a couple of years.

2) IP, PP, Vidreisn (36). Require that Vidreisn cave on all their pet issues in order to get lower taxes (quite hard to see, but not impossible)

3) IP, BF, Vidreisn (32) An economically liberal combo that require that IP completely screw over the agricultural lobby and throw in an EU negotiation referendum - while Vidreisn and BF accept to postpone fishing quota reform. Could work for a couple of years. Better for Vidreisn than option 2. But I doubt Bjarni Benediktsson would risk the uproar from his right wing. I can not see BF accept unless he offers an EU referendum.

[Deleted]

Benedikt Jóhannesson rules out both going into coalition with IP/PP and the four "centre-left" parties, but not having the Pirates as part of a coalition. He says it would be normal if his party got a mandate to try forming a government, and natural to look into the possibility that he could subsequently become Prime Minister. This is a surprise as it was assumed Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir would be their PM candidate as BJ has no parliamentary experience. So trying to unite one of the government parties with parts of the opposition under his leadership. Pretty ambitious. 

IP only rule out working with the Pirates, while the Pirates and LG rule out working with IP. 

SIJ will resign as PM at 3pm when he is in audience with the president.

[Deleted]

Highest share of women MPs ever with 47.6% (30 of 63, up from 25 in the last election), and female majority in the capital region.

Reykjavík South 63.6% (7 of 11)  
Reykjavík North 54.5% (6 of 11)
Southwest 46.1% (6 of 13)

Northwest 50% (4 of 8)
South 40% (4 of 10)
Northeast 30% (3 of 10)

[Sibboleth]

Oct 30, 2016 11:03:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Another social democratic party heading down the PASOK route, I see. You could almost say its becoming a trend?

It's a bit more complicated than that; Iceland never had a strong social democratic party. The SDA was formed in 1999 out of a bunch of left-wing parties (some members of which weren't happy; thus the Left Greens) none of which had polled more than 20% since the late 70s. The point of the new party was to be able to compete with the Independence Party; trouble is when they finally got their chance to govern it was in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In government they devoted their attention to trying to join the EU rather than sweeping constitutional changes; this was seen by leftier voters as a betrayal and so they've been pretty much fycked ever since. The SDAs voter profile is very middle class incidentally.

[Deleted]

Oct 30, 2016 14:16:57 GMT Sibboleth said:

Oct 30, 2016 11:03:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Another social democratic party heading down the PASOK route, I see. You could almost say its becoming a trend?

It's a bit more complicated than that; Iceland never had a strong social democratic party. The SDA was formed in 1999 out of a bunch of left-wing parties (some members of which weren't happy; thus the Left Greens) none of which had polled more than 20% since the late 70s. The point of the new party was to be able to compete with the Independence Party; trouble is when they finally got their chance to govern it was in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In government they devoted their attention to trying to join the EU rather than sweeping constitutional changes; this was seen by leftier voters as a betrayal and so they've been pretty much fycked ever since. The SDAs voter profile is very middle class incidentally.

They also failed to implement a new fishing quota system and since the commodification and resale of fishing quotas was what started the whole pre-crash speculative bubble, and the power of the big fishing companies is seen as a major problem on the left, that was equally important to the constitutional failure in alienating voters. 

In 1956 the chairman of the Icelandic TUC Hannibal Gísli Valdimarsson left the Social Democrats (which he had chaired 1952-54) and created the People's Alliance, which became the main (anti-NATO) left wing party, thus breaking the bond between the Social Democrats and the labour movement. Historically the Social Democrats (literally the People's Party, as in the working people's party, was a typical labour party and for the first 26 years the annual conference of the TUC doubled as a party conference for the Social Democrats, so that was a big blow.

The Icelandic Social Democrats have split five times, each time with the left wing leaving and either forming their own party or teaming up with a former split. 

[Deleted]

There is also the fact that when the Social Democrats merged with three parties to their left (the Womens's Party, an earlier left populist breakaway, and the People's Alliance) to form the Social Democratic Alliance Tony Blair and New Labour was the big ideal for Icelandic Social Democrats (many educated in the UK) and the leadership tried to take the new party in a Blairite direction, which naturally alienated the new leftist members from the other parties and provoked the break that created LG. The so-called Liberal Social Democrats (the Icelandic term for Blairites) have been quite influential until recently, when the moderate left gained control of the party. The current Mayor of Reykjavík, who was their (disloyal) deputy leader under the leftist 2009-13 government is from this wing of the party.

[Deleted]

The president will meet all the party leaders tomorrow to clarify the situation, so he has chosen not automatically to let Bjarni Benediktsson try first as the leader of the biggest party (as is the tradition).

[Deleted]

Five of the SDA MPs that ran for reelection are out: Their previous chairman Árni Páll Árna­son, the woman who was one vote away from replacing him Sig­ríður Ingi­björg Inga­dótt­ir, group chairman Helgi Hjörv­ar, former Foreign Minister and party chairman Össur Skarp­héðins­son and Val­gerður Bjarna­dótt­ir. Its hard to see how they can keep going after this. There is a board meeting tonight. 

[mboy]

Oct 30, 2016 15:54:36 GMT @odo said:

The president will meet all the party leaders tomorrow to clarify the situation, so he has chosen not automatically to let Bjarni Benediktsson try first as the leader of the biggest party (as is the tradition).

How controversial is breaking the tradition?

[Deleted]

Yet another record: 31 of 63 MPs are newly elected. 

Interesting that 2 out of the 3 SDA MPs are new. The new deputy chairman Logi Már Einarsson, who got their only constituency seat in the NE, and Guðjón S. Brjánsson. Party chairman Oddný G. Harðardóttir is the third. All 50+. 

[Deleted]

Well, I found one more record in this record breaking election. With 33 votes the Humanist Party received the lowest number of votes ever, only 11 fewer than the number of candidates (though only five of their candidates lived in the South Reykjavík constituency and could vote on the party). The previous record was held by the Sunshine Party (Sólskinsflokkurinn) which received 92 votes in December 1979. Only four lists have ever been below 100 votes. Last time it happened was in 1991 when the Labour Party got 99. 

[Deleted]

Oct 30, 2016 16:19:33 GMT mboy said:

Oct 30, 2016 15:54:36 GMT @odo said:

The president will meet all the party leaders tomorrow to clarify the situation, so he has chosen not automatically to let Bjarni Benediktsson try first as the leader of the biggest party (as is the tradition).

How controversial is breaking the tradition?

Not much in such a complex and unusual situation.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Oct 30, 2016 11:03:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Another social democratic party heading down the PASOK route, I see. You could almost say its becoming a trend?

but who is SYZIRA in this scenario?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Oct 30, 2016 12:58:34 GMT @odo said:

Given that SDA will not enter a government with a mere three seats there are three possible coalitions as I see it:

1) LG, Pirates, BF and Vidreisn. It only has 31 seats, but given that SDA would provide reliable outside support it could work. Would require some compromises. Could agree on fishing, farming and EU referendum, though not pegging the currency (but there is no way Vidreisn could get that). Might be able to agree on a new constitution and new elections in a couple of years.

2) IP, PP, Vidreisn (36). Require that Vidreisn cave on all their pet issues in order to get lower taxes (quite hard to see, but not impossible)

3) IP, BF, Vidreisn (32) An economically liberal combo that require that IP completely screw over the agricultural lobby and throw in an EU negotiation referendum - while Vidreisn and BF accept to postpone fishing quota reform. Could work for a couple of years. Better for Vidreisn than option 2. But I doubt Bjarni Benediktsson would risk the uproar from his right wing. I can not see BF accept unless he offers an EU referendum.

Looks like it will take quite a lot of arguing to get any Coalition

[Foggy]

Oct 31, 2016 2:46:35 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Oct 30, 2016 11:03:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Another social democratic party heading down the PASOK route, I see. You could almost say its becoming a trend?

but who is SYZIRA in this scenario?

Sibboleth and odo have already explained why that's perhaps a weak comparison, but even if you buy into it, I don't think the analogy extends beyond a likening of the SDA to PASOK anyhow.

And it's SYRIZA, by the way.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 30, 2016 8:21:19 GMT @odo said:

Both former SDA chairman Árni Páll Árnason and former Foreign Minister Össur Skarphéðinsson (also SDA) are out. 

Oddný G. Harðardóttir (SDA) and Benedikt Jóhannesson (Viðreisn) are only in on top-up seats and could still fail to get in. 

Interestingly, Ossur was the one that the SDA sent to the debates.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2016 7:55:35 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Oct 30, 2016 8:21:19 GMT @odo said:

Both former SDA chairman Árni Páll Árnason and former Foreign Minister Össur Skarphéðinsson (also SDA) are out. 

Oddný G. Harðardóttir (SDA) and Benedikt Jóhannesson (Viðreisn) are only in on top-up seats and could still fail to get in. 

Not the final tv-debate, that was Oddny.

[Deleted]

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson claims that the bad result for the Progress Party was due to the leadership election and that the party would have gotten 19% with him as leader. This guy is really a sore loser. Its more likely they would have been down to 8% without the leadership change. 

[Deleted]

After the crisis meeting Oddný G. Harðardóttir steps down as chairman of SDA and deputy leader Logi Már Einarsson becomes new leader.