Icelandic Althing election 2016

[Deleted]

Since the Icelandic politics thread is gone I will post polls etc. here. The election will almost certainly be in October.

[Deleted]

After negotiations with the opposition IP leader Bjarni Bene­dikts­son has declared the election will be held on October 29. A bit unusual the PM didn't announce it, but Bjarni Ben is obviously the de facto leader of the government by now. Its still a declaration of intent and not legally binding, but should be a done deal. It ends the charade with various PP politicians declaring at party meetings that the government has a right to continue until spring (and should do so), had been "coerced" into accept ingearly elections etc.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Are the Pirates still looking strong?

[Deleted]

Aug 12, 2016 6:29:25 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Are the Pirates still looking strong?

Polling in the high 20s. Same level they have had since the "its real now" drop that followed the big demonstrations after the tax haven affair.

[Deleted]

Minister of Education and Culture Illugi Gunnarsson (IP) has declared he isn't running for reelection. He was accused of unduly using his position in promoting a Singapore based Icelandic energy company whose owner helped IG after he went bankrupt and got him cheap housing. Him and (equally scandalized) Hanna Birna Kristjánsdóttir topped the lists in the two Reykjavik constituencies last time, so with neither of them running the field it will be wide open.

[Deleted]

List of MPs not seeking reelection, a lot of big names among them.

PP:
Frosti Sigurjónsson
Páll Jóhann Pálsson
Sigrún Magnúsdóttir (Minister of the Environment)
Har­ald­ur Ein­ars­son

IP:
Einar K. Guðfinnsson (the Speaker) (M)
Ragnheiður Ríkharðsdóttir (group chairman)
Hanna Birna Kristjánsdóttir (former deputy chairman) (M)
Illugi Gunnarsson (Minister of Education and Culture)

Left Greens:
Ögmundur Jónasson (M) (former group chairman and union leader)

Bright Future:
Brynhildur Pétursdóttir
Róbert Marshall (former group chairman)
Guðmundur Steingrímsson (former party chairman)

SDA:
Katrín Júlíusdóttir (M) (former deputy chairman)
Kristján L. Möller (M)

Pirates:
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson

The ones marked (M) are former ministers.

[Deleted]

At the moment 17 of 63 MPs have decided not to run for reelection - more than a fourth and a new record. 13 did not seek reelection in 2013, 10 in 2009, six in both 2007 and 2003 and seven in 1999.

There are currently 18 MPs who also sat in the Althing when the financial crash hit Iceland in 2008. Six of them are not running for reelection, so less than a fifth of the new Althing will have a pre-crash parliamentary career.

[Deleted]

Sturla Jónsson has announced he is running for Dawn in the election. The populist left/right combo party got 3.1% in 2013. Its leader back then Margrét Tryggvadóttir and Þór Saari have now joined SDA and the Pirates respectively. The current leader is Helga Þórð­ar­dótt­ir. Neither Dawn, nor the party "Sturla Jónsson" have been close to passing the 5% threshold in polls, but maybe they have a (small) chance together

Sturla Jónsson got 3.5% in the presidential election.

Dawn is running on a left populist platform that includes abolishing inflation indexed housing loans, a new auction based fishing quota system, a publicly owned non-profit bank, association owned public housing, higher accident compensations and pensions, and a communal pension system.

[Deleted]

New MMR poll also has LG "low" (12%+) as their last poll from ultimo July, whereas Gallup still had them in the high teens in late July. BF is approaching the threshold again. Sturla Jonsson has joined Dawn and together they are at 3.2. PP doing better and up 2.3. A very high (by recent standards) centre-right vote of 44%.  Though the opposition is still well ahead.

Far right: 0.5
Right Greens 0.5 (defunct, the far more openly xenophobic Icelandic National Front is a partial successor)

Centre-right: 44.0
IP 24.6
PP 10.6
Vidreisn 8.8 (seems to have stagnated post-Brexit as the EU question is off the table)

Traditional centre-left: 21.5
LG 12.4
SDA 9.1

Far left: 0.3
Humanist Party 0.1
Rainbow 0.1
Peoples Front of Iceland 0.1

Alternative progressives and left populists: 30.6
Pirates 22.4
BF 4.5
Sturla Jonsson 2.1 (has joined Dawn)
Dawn 1.1
Democracy Watch 0.5

Others: 3.0
Households Party 0.6 (likely trolling as it is taken over by exposed swindlers)
Rural Party 0.4
Others 2.0

[Deleted]

The MMR polls since 2008:
mmr.is/fylgi-flokka-og-rikisstjornar

[neilm]

Many thanks for doing this.

[Deleted]

PP chairman and former PM Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson will be challenged by one of his most tenacious internal critics Höskuldur Þórhallssonn from PPs liberal wing, (whom SDG defeated in the chairmanship election in 2009) in the NE constituency and PP likely need two seats up there for him to regain his place in the Althing.

The decision of whether there will be an extraordinary party conference with a leadership election will be taken on an executive commmitte meeting in Akureyri on September 10, but it looks certain that there will be a leadership contest. The board in the NE constituency narrowly voted against it, but the South, SW, and NW constituencies supported it and PP in Reykjavik doesn't have enough votes to tip the balance. There are currently no challenger. Both deputy leader and PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson and popular, charismatic Foreign Minister Lilja Alfreðsdóttir have declined to challenge SDG (they would both easily have won). LA because she has no parliamentary experience and SIJ seemingly out of loyalty to the chairman. Minister of Social Affairs Eygló Harðardóttir from the party's Social Liberal left wing is looking for support, but it is uncertain whether she can beat SDG as the party has moved quite a bit to the right on social issues under SDG. 

If Eygló Harðardóttirs manage to win the chairmanship a centrist reform coalition with SDA, Vidreisn (unthinkable pre-Brexit..), BF and the Pirates becomes a possibility. Ironically a new coalition with IP also becomes more likely with EG as chairman (in the unlikely case that the two government parties somehow manage to to get a majority) since the relationship between SDG and IP leader Bjarni Benediktsson is outright hostile. The two men haven't spoken to each other since SDG tried to call an election behind Bjarni Bens back under the tax haven crisis five months ago. 

PPs top candidates in Reykjavik will be:

Reykjavík South: Foreign MinisterLilja Alfreðsdóttir
Reykjavík North: veteran Karl Garðarsson

[Deleted]

Like in July Gallup has LG high in their August poll. The Pirates also significantly higher in this poll than MMR. Vidreisn in double digits. Dawn has virtually no support in this poll. There is definitely two distinct patterns in the Gallup and MMR polls now. Gallup's seems most logical, but you never know.  One obvious difference is that MMR keeps polling the parties that competed last time (even the dissolved..), while Gallup polls those with actual ballot access, but that doesn't account for most of the difference.

IP 26.3 (+0,1) 17 seats
Pirates 25.8 (+0.5) 17 seats
LG 16,2 (-0.6) 11 seats
Vidreisn 10.6 (+1.6) 7 seats
PP 9.0 (-0.9) 6 seats
SDA 8.3 (+0.3) 5 seats

BF 2.9 (-1.3) 
Icelandic National Front 0.6 (first poll of them)
Dawn 0.2%
People's Front of Iceland 0.1% 
People's Party 0.1% (new populist party wanting to abolish poverty and corruption by the common effort of the people)

The Pirates are biggest in the three "urban" constituencies (2 x Reykjavik and SW) and IP in the three "rural" ones. PP gets no seats in the "urban" constituencies" and SDA gets no seats in the two northern constituencies. 

37.8% support for the government vs. 35.6% in the MMR poll.

[Deleted]

The election hasn't been formally declared yet, but a bill to end the parliamentary year on September 15 (45 days prior to October 29) was presented by the PM today and everybody assume it will be held on October 29.

To get ballot access the registered parties need to submit a candidate list for each constituency they wish to contest to the Minister of the Interior 15 days prior to the election + list of supporters with 30-40 times as many names as there are seats in the constituency. There is no requirement to contest all constituencies.

[AdminSTB]

Thanks for the poll @odo . I concede it is better than the one I had added (I had just included the parties I thought had a chance of gaining representation in the Althing.)

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2016 20:30:12 GMT AdminSTB said:

Thanks for the poll @odo . I concede it is better than the one I had added (I had just included the parties I thought had a chance of gaining representation in the Althing.)

Its a bit tricky who to include because all registered parties can submit lists until 15 days before the election. I did not include Democracy Watch and the Rural Party (though the Rurals match hedgehog's views quite well) because I doubt they can present lists in all constituencies. I would say at least Dawn (with Sturla J.) has an actual chance to pass the threshold. There are also a Christian Party (US style Christian Right) and the new Conservative Party (a historic name for the main predecessor to IP) with the aim of establishing an Icelandic military, protect the borders, reestablish Christian culture and keep foreigners out, but I think they both will fail to get on the ballot.

[Deleted]

Former Minister of Education and IP deputy chairman (2005-10) Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir and former PM and IP chairman (1983-91) Þorsteinn Pálsson, who lost the chairmanship to Doddsson, have both joined Viðreisn. Þorgerður Katrín will be a candidate in the pivotal SW constituency (Reykjavik suburbs and ex-urbs) and says she will enter "a leadership role" in the party. Þorsteinn Pálsson's son Páll Rafnar Þorsteinsson will also be a candidate. Viðreisn is basically founded on Þorsteinn Pálsson's line in IP and he has always been seen as the "godfather" behind the party, so the most surprising thing regarding his switch is that it hasn't happened before. Its naturally a major reinforcement that two former IP heavyweights now join Viðreisn. Especially that Þorgerður Katrín will top their list in the SW as its basically a party made for suburbia.

[Deleted]

Visir poll on support for the government:

All voters:
Support 36%
Against 64%

18-49:
Support 33%
Against 67%

50+:
Support 40%
Aganst 60%

Men:
Support 42%
Against 58%

Women:
Support 30%
Against 70%

Reykjavík (incl. SW):
Support 27%
Against 73%

NW:
Support 49%
Against 51%

SW:
Support 41%
Against 59%

South:
Support 41%
Against 59%

NE:
Support 41%
Against 59%

[Deleted]

Gallup now also has LG low, while Viðreisn is above 12% after being joined by Þorstein Pallsson and Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir. IP only drop 0.8%, so the combined centre-right is very high at 47.1% and the left/right balance is starting to resemble a "normal" country. Given that BF is below the threshold "the left" is actually behind at 45.4%. I think it has been more than two years since "the right" was last time ahead in seats. Though Viðreisn will likely prefer some centrist option rather than backing IP and the current coalition remain unpopular (36% support). A lot will depend on who will be leader of PP (if its SDG no one will want to include them).

Traditional centre-left: 22.3%
Left Greens 13.5%
SDA 8.8%

Alternative progressives: 26.0%
Pirates 23.1%
Bright Future 2.9%

Centre-right: 47.1%
PP 9.4%
IP 25.5%
Viðreisn 12.2%

Small parties:

Far right: 2.0%
Icelandic National Front 2.0% (+1.6 after recent TV coverage of anti-immigration demo)

Far Left/Populist Left: 2.5%
Dawn 1.3% (with Sturla Jónsson on the list)
People's Front of Iceland 0.7%
People's Party 0.5%

Others 0.1%

Recent primaries led to unusually male dominated lists in several parties and a couple of prominent moderate female IP MPs got the short stick (Elin Hirst and Unnur Brá Konráðsdóttir). Its a bit unclear why it happened after the massive critique of a too male dominated field in the presidential elections. It is likely an advantage for the remaining female candidates and could lead to some surprises where lower ranked females pass male lead candidates on personal votes. I will post some more info on the primary results later.

The Pirates in the NW had a major "scandal" involving a candidate who mass enrolled friends and family in violation of their new ethical code, but got away with it because the code only went into force two days after . This practice of enlisting relatives, friends and workmates is entirely common in Iceland.

Party membership in Iceland is very high. Surveys reveal that people are often "members" of parties they do not remember ever having joined, because once you sign up to support some work mate or cousin in a local election you are never removed from the list.  It is thus common to be a "member" of several parties. Since they only collect membership "fees" at irregular intervals (basically when they are strapped for cash) and you are not thrown out for failing to pay the fee (meaning it is de facto a donation rather than a fee) this has limited consequences.

They implemented open primaries in 1970 for most parties (all that matters), but later modified this so party members can vote. Yet given the above they are still close to open - especially in the small communities, which can lead to unforeseen consequences. The Pirates tried implementing a 30 day "quarantine period" for membership prior to the primaries, but this seemingly failed in the NW. 

Keeping a high membership is a status symbol for the elites running parties. Parties are financing partly by public funds, and partly by donations. As parties are not required to make their accounts public little is known about exactly who finance them. Though its well known that IP is bankrolled by "Big Fishing", PP by the cooperatives and agricultural associations and LG/SDA by unions, but the rest of their economy is in the dark and this leads to considerable influence peddling. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

I'm in Iceland next month so I shall watch with interest.

What a terrible selection to vote for.