Icelandic Althing election 2016

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Gallup poll of the PP leadership election for business magazine Viðskiptablaðið.

PP supporters: 

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 52%
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 37%
Lilja Alfreðsdóttir 11%

All voters:

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 12%
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 47% (most popular among SDA supporters)
Lilja Alfreðsdóttir 25% (most popular among Viðreisn supporters)
Neither 16%

In a Fréttablaðið poll 39.5% says it increases their chance of voting PP, only 8.9% say it increases their chance if SDG stays on. 

Lots of allegations of betrayal, backstabbing and foul play between the two camps. As party chairman Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson controls the agenda, and so far he is reluctant to even let Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson speak at the conference, while he has allocated himself an hour for his speech. Fair play was never SDGs strong side 

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New Gallup poll with a 3035 sample and 59.2% participation rate. 
ruv.is/frett/thessir-yrdu-thingmenn-midad-vid-nyjustu-konnun
(constituency numbers in the article)

Independence Party 23.7 (likely getting anti-SDG votes from PP)
Pirate Party 20.6 (lowest since March 2015)
Bright Future 4.7 (obviously withinMoE wrt the threshold)
Left Greens 15.6 (picking up some steam again)
Vidreisn 13.4
SDA 8.5
PP 8.2 (very low, but SDA refusing to go quietly and polls showing him ahead among PP voters are likely to blame)
Icelandic National Front 3.0 (starting to look serious..)
Other 2.4 (about half of that to Dawn, but no exact number)

IP is dropping 3.1 points among female voters after the gender quota debacle (even if they promoted a woman from 5th to 2nd place in the SW on Benediktssons direct order) and are down to 21.1%. 

Distribution of the 54 constituency MPs - if no one breaks the list on large amounts of personal votes.

PP will get five MPs on these numbers. two in the South and NE and one in the NW. That would mean that Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson, Silja Dögg Gunnarsdóttir, Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, Þórunn Egilsdóttir and Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson would be elected.

IP would get 15 MPs, 4 in the South-West, 3 in the South and two in each of the four other constituencies. 

Ólöf Nordal, Brynjar Níelsson, Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, Áslaug Arna Sigurbjörnsdóttir, Bjarni Benediktsson, Bryndís Haraldsdóttir, Jón Gunnarsson, Óli Björn Kárason, Haraldur Benediktsson, Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir, Kristján Þór Júlíusson, Njáll Trausti Friðbertsson, Páll Magnússon, Ásmundur Friðriksson and Vilhjálmur Árnason would get in.

SDA would get six MPs - one in each constituency. Party chairman Oddný G. Harðardóttir, her predecessor Árni Páll Árnason, Guðjón S. Brjánsson, veteran Össur Skarphéðinsson, leftist economist Sigríður Ingibjörg Ingadóttir, and Logi Már Einarsson would get in.

Left Greens would get nine MPs. Two in the NE, and in both og the two Reykjavík constituencies and one in each of the other three constituencies. Chairman Katrín Jakobsdóttir, Steinunn Þóra Árnadóttir, Svandís Svavarsdóttir, Kolbeinn Óttarsson Proppé (son of the BF chairman), Lilja Rafney Magnúsdóttir, vulcanologist, ex-Maoist, ex- presidential candidate and author Ari Trausti Guðmundsson, veteran Steingrímur J. Sigfússon, Rósa Björk Brynjólfsdóttir and Bjarkey Olsen Gunnarsdóttir would get in.

The Pírates would get 13 seats. Three in Reykjavík North and the SW, two in Reykjavík South, NW and SW and a single seat in the South. Poetician Birgitta Jónsdóttir, Björn Leví Gunnarsson, Halldóra Mogensen, Ásta Guðrún Helgadóttir, Gunnar Hrafn Jónsson, asphalt layer and ex-MP Jón Þór Ólafsson, Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir, Andri Þór Sturluson, Eva Pandora Baldursdóttir, Gunnar I. Guðmundsson, co-founder and entrepreneur Smári McCarthy, Einar Aðalsteinn Brynjólfsson and Guðrún Ágústa Þórdísardóttir would get in.

Viðreisn would get 6 constituency seats, two í Reykjavík South and SW, one in Reykjavík North and South. None in Northern Iceland. Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, Jón Steindór Valdimarsson, Jóna Sólveig Elínardóttir, Þorsteinn Víglundsson, Hanna Katrín Friðriksson and Pawel Bartoszek would get in. Bartoszek as the first immigrant MP.

In addition there are nine top-up seats. If Bright Future gets in they take constituency seats in all three constituencies in the capital region.

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The Pirates haven't been lower in a poll by a credible pollster since early March 2015.

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PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson has been elected as new chairman of the Progress Party, and Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson is (presumably) thereby finished in Icelandic politis. No details yet. This could well be the difference between PP getting 8% and 12-13%, and it opens up the possibility of PP entering a broad coalition.

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Foreign Minister og SDG loyalist Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir yesterday announced that she would run for deputy leader no matter who won the chairmanship. It is probably only possible to unite the party if she wins. She had originally said that she would only be a candidate for deputy if SDG stayed on as chairman, and I think the possibility of getting a balanced leadership with representatives of both camps may have swayed the some delegates. SDG was said to be favored going into the convention. His childish attempt to keep the PM and other ministers off the speakers list by walking out of the decisive committee probably also cost him support. In the end the ministers got 15 min. each to speak, and SDG one hour. 

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The result:

Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 370 (52.6%)
Sigmund Davíð Gunnlaugsson 329 (46.8%)
Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir 3 (1.6%) (write-in votes as she was not a declared candidate)

Minister of Social Affairs Eygló Harðardótt­ir withdrew her candidature for deputy chairman and endorsed Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir, who was elected with 96.1%, her only declared opponent Vilhelm Úlfar Vilhelmsson got zero votes, and the remaining 3.9% went to write-in candidates. Jón Björn Hákonarson was elected party secretary with 84.7% and no declared opponent, since Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson declined after SDG lost. The former party secretary Eygló Harðardótt­is is now out of the leadership.

After the election Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson led a standing ovation to Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, but the dethroned leader had already left the building. He still has sufficient influence in the party to create havoc if he chooses to.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 2, 2016 15:27:03 GMT @odo said:

PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson has been elected as new chairman of the Progress Party, and Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson is (presumably) thereby finished in Icelandic politis. No details yet. This could well be the difference between PP getting 8% and 12-13%, and it opens up the possibility of PP entering a broad coalition.

The demise of SDG would be a great thing for Icelandic politics.  Here's hoping.

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Some PP members are encouraging SDG to start his own party, and one parliamentary candidate has cancelled his candidature. 

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SDG has declared he will run for parliament and as #1 on the list in their NE stronghold he is certain to get in. This will make it far less likely that PP can enter a government as it more or less guarantees continued internal turbulence. 

Some PP members has encouraged SDG to start his own party, and one parliamentary candidate has cancelled his candidature. But his supporters will stay put for now.

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University of Iceland poll:

IP 26.0 - 18
Pirates 19.8 - 15
Left Greens 16.5 - 12
Vidreisn 11.7 - 8
PP 9.7 - 5
SDA 6.3 - 4

The 63th seat is too close to call. Pirates/LG/SDA = 31, IP/PP/Vidreisn = 31. SDA leader Oddný G. Harðardóttir (South) and former Foreign Minister Össur Skarphéðinsson (Reykjavík South) would lose their seats if SDA goes that low.

Below threshold: 

Bright Future 4.1
Peoples Party 3.2 (probably mostly ex-Pirate voters)
Icelandic National Front 2.2
Dawn 0.3
Peoples Front of Iceland 0.3
Others 0.0

With no "list jumps" due to personal votes the following 63 would get in:

IP: Kristján Þór Júlí­us­son, Njáll Trausti Friðberts­son, Har­ald­ur Bene­dikts­son, Þór­dís Kol­brún Reyk­fjörð Gylfa­dótt­ir, Teit­ur Björn Ein­ars­son, Guðlaug­ur Þór Þórðar­son, Áslaug Arna Sig­ur­björns­dótt­ir, Birg­ir Ármanns­son, Ólöf Nor­dal, Brynj­ar Ní­els­son, Sig­ríður Á. And­er­sen, Páll Magnús­son, Ásmund­ur Friðriks­son, Vil­hjálm­ur Árna­son, Bjarni Bene­dikts­son, Bryn­dís Har­alds­dótt­ir, Jón Gunn­ars­son and Óli Björn Kára­son.

Pirates: Ein­ar Aðal­steinn Brynj­ólfs­son, Guðrún Ágústa Þór­dís­ar­dótt­ir, Eva Pandora Bald­urs­dótt­ir, Gunn­ar Ingi­berg Guðmunds­son, Birgitta Jóns­dótt­ir, Björn Leví Gunn­ars­son, Ásta Guðrún Helga­dótt­ir, Gunn­ar Hrafn Jóns­son, Hall­dóra Mo­gensen, Smári McCart­hy, Oktavía Hrund Jóns­dótt­ir, Jón Þór Ólafs­son, Þór­hild­ur Sunna Ævars­dótt­ir, Andri Þór Sturlu­son and Sara Þórðardótt­ir Osk­ars­son.

LG: Stein­grím­ur J. Sig­fús­son, Bjarkey Ol­sen Gunn­ars­dótt­ir, Lilja Raf­ney Magnús­dótt­ir, Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir, Stein­unn Þóra Árna­dótt­ir, Svandís Svavars­dótt­ir, Kol­beinn Ótt­ars­son Proppé, Hild­ur Knúts­dótt­ir, Ari Trausti Guðmunds­son, Heiða Guðný Ásgeirs­dótt­ir, Rósa Björk Brynj­ólfs­dótt­ir and Ólaf­ur Þór Gunn­ars­son.

Vidreisn: Bene­dikt Jó­hann­es­son, Gylfi Ólafs­son, Þor­steinn Víg­lunds­son, Þor­björg Sig­ríður Gunn­laugs­dótt­ir, Hanna Katrín Friðriks­son, Pawel Bartoszek, Jóna Sól­veig El­ín­ar­dótt­ir and Þor­gerður Katrín Gunn­ars­dótt­ir.

PP: Sig­mund­ur Davíð Gunn­laugs­son, Gunn­ar Bragi Sveins­son, Lilja Dögg Al­freðsdótt­ir, Sig­urður Ingi Jó­hanns­son and Silja Dögg Gunn­ars­dótt­ir. (3 SDA wing vs. 2 SIJ wing)

SDA: Logi Ein­ars­son, Erla Björg Guðmunds­dótt­ir, Sig­ríður Ingi­björg Inga­dótt­ir and Árni Páll Árna­son.  

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The Peoples Party was founded by Inga Sæland (56), who this summer became the first blind woman to graduate with a law degree in Iceland. By her own account she chose to embark on a law study to become a lawyer and "fight for the little guy" after her husband was injured in a work accident and they didn't know how to get any help. Her claim to fame was participating in Icelandic X Factor and "singing herself into the hearts of the people."

Inga was born and raised in Ólafsfjörður in Northern Iceland and says it is important to reinvigorate the countryside and bring life back to the small fishing communities (which presumably means a new fishing quota system, which isn't market based).

The party wants to create an inclusive society, "place the needs elderly and disabled on the top of the political agenda" and fight for increased minimum benefits, a revised pension system and abolition of loan indexation.

[Devil Wincarnate]

It just goes to show that repeated rumours of the IP's demise never come off.

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Oct 10, 2016 16:09:47 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

It just goes to show that repeated rumours of the IP's demise never come off.

I haven't seen any Icelanders talk about IP's demise. More that it has stabilized on a level that is substantially lower than pre-crash and seem unlikely to get back to its former dominant position.

If the women's league leaders/ex-leaders and board members, who left, had gone to Vidreisn that could potentially have been dangerous, but they haven't. Right now Vidreisn seem mainly to pick up ex-Pirates and centrist suburban voters who went PP last time.

And its just one poll with a fairly small sample. The Social Science department at the university only started doing political polling recently and they may weigh them wrong (fx its a very low SDA level after the party had been doing decently). 

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Bright Future co-founder and political scientist Heiða Kristín Helgadóttir now works for the Viðreisn campaign. She hasn't joined the party, but claim there needs to be several alternatives to the old "special interests" parties for the voters to chose from. She was the architect behind transforming the Best Party from a joke into a functioning (and quite succesful) party and helped design BFs policy and 2013 campaign. She also de facto eliminated party leader Guðmundur Steingrímsson and group leader Róbert Marshall last year and paved the way for the old Best Party people to gain control of the party. When she was an Althing substitute last autumn she gained BF more media exposure than their policies had gotten since the election. She now says she isn't a member of any party. 

Viðreisn is going for a centrist coalition with BF, SDA and the Pirates, but unclear who they will support if that combo doesn't get a majority. Though they will likely just be in opposition. Like the Faroese Progress they are in the paradoxical situation that they can only implement their free market policies on fishing, farming and customs with the left. Supporting IP would also quickly strangle the party - especially as there is no way Bjarni Bendiktsson would let Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir be PM after 4-years with a "lesser" party leading an "IP-government". She would by all accounts be a very competent PM and therefore a substantial thread to IP. The Left Greens would not accept taxes as low as Viðreisn wants them and are against a fully auction based fishing quota system. Unlike the Faroes the Icelandic economy is much too diverse to finance increased welfare by auctioning off fishing quotas, so a left-right compromise is harder. Tourism is now a bigger source of income than fishing and aluminum combined, so the relative weight of fishing is declining. 

Viðreisn recently announced a proposal of forcing all companies with 25+ employees to eliminate wage differences between men and women that can not be rationally justified. The employers will need to publish all info about their wage structure in their accounts and explain gender differences. This is a bit of a gamble, and will alienate some economic liberals, but may attract female IP voters. If their "base" as estimated are primarily the non-leftist part of the old Pirate vote and the 2013 new suburban PP voters (two overlapping groups) this may be quite popular. 

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Two new polls:

Gallup from yesterday (conducted 3-12/10)

IP 22.6 (-1.1)
Pirate Party 18.3 (-2.3)
Bright Future 7.7 (+3.0) doing really well with their market based fishing quotas, no agricultural subsidies and high immigration message
Left Greens 14.5 (-1.1)
Vidreisn 12.4 (-1.0)
SDA 7.1 (-1.4)
PP 9.8 (+1.6)
Icelandic National Front 3.2 (+0.2)
Peoples Party 2.1
Dawn 1.8
Others 0.8


University of Iceland from today (conducted 6-12/10)

Left Greens 17.7%
SDA 6.9%
Pirates 17.5% (in free fall.. and have a high share among those who doubt they will vote)
Bright Future 7.7%
PP 8.6%
IP 21.5% (significant drop, but their last poll was almost certainly an outlier)
Vidreisn 11.4%
Peoples Party 3.0%
Icelandic National Front 2.7%
Others 2.9%

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The deadline for declaring candidates expired at noon today. The candidate- and sponsors lists will now be checked and confirmed - most of them should be finalized tomorrow. The National Electoral Commission announces the approved candidates on Wednesday.

The Icelandic National Front, which aimed at running in all constituencies will not be in supply in neither Reykjavík North nor South after their top candidates in the city Gunnlaugur Ingvarsson and Gustav Níelsson pulled out and they didn't have time to get signatures for new candidates. They will run in the South, Southwest and Northwest constituencies (if approved), but not in the Northeast (with Akureyri). This de facto guarantees that they can not pass the 5% threshold. A constituency seat in the SW is their only chance. 

Dawn and the Peoples Party have handed in lists for all constituencies. The Humanist Party have only handed in a list for Reykjavik South. No info on the People's Front of Iceland.

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Gustaf Adolf Níelsson (Reykjavík North) and Gunnlaugur Ingvarsson (Reykjavík South) says in a statement to the press that: 

"We made the decision because the chairman of the Icelandic National Front is completely indifferent to the progress of the ideals and policies of the party."

"A political party must have confidence in its leadership in order to achieve progress. The Icelandic National Front does not have that. Repeatedly the chairman of the party has pointed out that he can not handle the project. He does not remember in the evening, what he said in the morning, he does not know whether he is coming or going and is insecure in all conduct, and decisions."

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MMR poll from today (conducted 6-13/10):

IP 21.4% 
Pirates 19.6%
Left Greens 14.5%
Viðreisn 10.2% 
PP 9.2% 
SDA 9.0%
BF 8.2% (+3.3%)

Icelandic National Front 2.8%
Dawn 1.6%
Peoples Party 1.2%
Rural Party 0.8% (not running)
Peoples Front of Iceland 0.7%
Households Party 0.6% (not running)
Humanist Party 0.1%
Others 0.2% (not running)

Support for the government:  34.1%.

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Helgi Helgason chairman of the Icelandic National Front:

"These people who left took the data and refused to hand over data, sponsor lists and other resources to deliver legal supply. If we could have had an extra day we would probably have submitted lists in both constituencies. "

"This is extremely shitty behavior. I can not see that this kind of conduct has anything to do with ideals. Here's just an act of vandalism and selfishness. Of course this is very frustrating. "

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This years Reykjavík constituency borders (changes every election to secure an even voter distribution):