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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 21, 2016 18:27:00 GMT
The northern part of Reykjavík North is mostly Esja, the local mountain. I was going to say that I suspected it's put in there because South West is entirely made up of suburban municipalities, but actually Kjósarhreppur is pretty empty too, so maybe it's just because the locals like Esja.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2016 18:38:47 GMT
Two non-contiguous seats? That's painful to look at! Blame the Progress Party. The idea is to allocate rural areas within Greater Reykjavík to the rural/hamlet dominated South constituency, while keeping all Reykjavík suburbs and exurbs out of it. That gives some gaps. Otherwise some rural voters would be forced into a constituency solely focused on urban interests and/or city folks would influence the result in the South. If the UK had an influential rural interests/ farmer's party you would probably have something similar in some places. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 18:19:38 GMT
MMR poll - September 12-19. mmr.is/fylgi-flokka-og-rikisstjornarBF gain a bit after their attack on the milk monopoly and the "800.000 Icelanders in 2050" plan. Maybe they still have a chance. Pirates and Ip tied, but on low numbers. Traditional centre-left: 21.3% Left Greens 13.2% SDA 8.1% Alternative progressives: 26.8% Pirates 22.7% Bright Future 4.1% Centre-right: 45.2% PP 11.0% IP 22.7% Viðreisn 11.5% Small parties: Far right: 2.2% Icelandic National Front 2.2% (their best poll yet) Centre-right: 1.4 Rural Party 0.9% Households Party 0.5% (swindlers, so likely trolling) Far Left/Populist Left: 1.8% Dawn 1.3% (with Sturla Jónsson on the list) Rainbow 0.3% People's Front of Iceland 0.1% Humanists 0.1% Alternative progressives (citizen's movement survivors): 0.2% Democracy Watch 0.2% Others 1.0% (probably mainly the People's Party) |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 20:53:02 GMT
If you add all parties that are nominally right or centre-right they get 48.8%, whereas leftists, centre-left and "progressives" (assuming the 1% Other is People's Party) get 51.1.
This is a silly way to divide it, but still illustrates how much strength the non-leftist parties have regained. Iceland now has a de facto 50/50 distribution between the sides.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 22:26:18 GMT
After two primaries where female candidates ended far down the list and the party leadership refusing to change the lists (which they can if the difference between candidates is minor) a women's rebellion has erupted in IP. In the SW the top four spots went to men. Only party chairman Bjarni Benediktsson got enough votes to be guaranteed his place on the list, so he could in principle give the second spot to the fifth placed woman. But IP is ideologically opposed to gender quotas.
Now the chairman of their women's league Helga Dögg Björgvinsdóttir, and her two immediate predecessors Jarþrúður Ásmundsdóttir (2011-13) and Þórey Vilhjálmsdóttir (2013-15) have decided to leave the party in protest. In a joint statement they write that they leave IP because it has proven impossible to change the conservative view of gender equality within the party - despite the party adopting gender equality as a core value. They criticize the leadership for not trying to prevent the male dominance on the lists. They say primaries do not give a good result, even if they are democratic for the narrow circle that participates in them.
Eleven out of fourten members of the board on the women's league have declared they will step down, and a handful of them say they are ready to leave the party.
Deputy chairman Ólöf Nordal, has said that she consider the low share of women in the lists in the South and South-West a disappointment, while the lists in Reykjavík and the NW have a good balance.
Primaries always result in infighting in Iceland, but normally they are placed much further from the election, so there is time patch things up. The late (formal) calling of this election means that they now have the conflict with only five week to go, and the existence of Viðreisn with former IP deputy Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir on track to a leadership role means that the defector have an alternative if they want to continue their political career. Its unclear if the three current and former women's league chairmen and their supporters actually go to Viðreisn, but if they do that will be a major gain for the new party.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2016 11:02:32 GMT
Friday PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson declared that he will challenges Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson for the leadership on the PP party conference this week-end. The 330 delegates will elect a new (or old..) leader on Sunday.
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson is narrowly favored and has a majority of the parliamentary group behind him, but its far from a done deal.
Minister of Social Affairs and party secretary Eygló Harðardóttir from the Social Liberal left wing will run for deputy leader if Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson wins. If SDG survives Foreign Minister Lilja Alfreðsdóttir will run for deputy leader and Fisheries and Agriculture Minister Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson for party secretary.
Lilja Alfreðsdóttir may be persuaded to run for deputy leader even if SDG loses, which could save party unity. There is no systematic ideological divide between the two sides, though the small left wing is with the PM.
It may seem strange SDG still has supporters, but a lot of the party still see Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson as the victor in the Icesave-debacle and the man who succeeded in getting the dreaded EU-membership off the political agenda.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2016 16:59:48 GMT
MMR poll - September 20-26 (looks like MMR will do weekly polls from now on). The first tv-debate was held on Thursday, SDG said to have done terribly, but that isn't reflected in the poll. The small left wing parties and Democracy Watch gained more than 2% combined and LG dropped, so the risk of vote wasting on the left wing may become a problem. mmr.is/fylgi-flokka-og-rikisstjornarBF now on 4.9%, so looks like they will make it (if the trend continues). Pirates and IP both go even lower, LG tank and SDA are now not far behind them (I am still not quite sure why LG has dropped that much.. though the far left did well in the debate, but the drop started weeks earlier). Dawn and the Icelandic National Front both above 2%, which may get more voters to seriously consider them. PP gaining (but this may change if SDG is reelected, it seems voters now take it for granted that he will be ousted by the PM and this influenced the poll). Support for the government down to 31.5%, which is the lowest since April (and lower than the support for IP and PP combined). Poll numbers with change since last week Traditional centre-left: 20.8% (-0.5) Left Greens 11.5% (-1.7) SDA 9.3% (+1.2) Alternative progressives: 26.5% (-0.3) Pirates 21.6% (-1.1) Bright Future 4.9% (+0.8) Centre-right: 45.1% (-0.1) PP 12.2% (+1.2) IP 20.6% (-2.1) Viðreisn 12.3% (+0.8) Small parties: Far right: 2.3% (+0.1) Icelandic National Front 2.3% (+0.1) Centre-right: 0.8 (-0.6) Rural Party 0.4% (-0.5) Households Party 0.4% (-0.1) swindlers, so likely trolling) Far Left/Populist Left: 3.5% (+1.7) Dawn 2.1% (+0.8) Rainbow 0.1% (-0.2) People's Front of Iceland 0.6% (+0.5) Humanists 0.7% (+0.6) Alternative progressives (citizen's movement survivors): 0.7% Democracy Watch 0.7% (+0.5) Others 0.9% (-0.1) probably mainly the People's Party |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2016 19:47:03 GMT
The Panama Papers scandal proved to be very bad luck for the Icelandic opposition. They missed a certain win against an incompetent buffoon, who was in a position where he couldn't be removed by neither his coalition partners nor internal critics, and then failed to force an immediate election through extraparliamentary pressue. Instead an affable and accommodating country bumpkin gradually became a fairly popular PM and the competent IP ministers got space to project their competence to the public. It then developed into a welfare election in a "we are finally out of the crisis lets spend some money on healthcare, pensions and housing" mood where the principled critique from the Pirates about transparency and direct democracy has failed to inspire and voters seem primarily to be looking for competent management.
The danger is that Icelanders once again get cheated out of a new constitution and a fair fishing quota system, and this alienates them further from their political system, but with the strength of Viðreisn that seems unlikely.
If BF manages to pass the threshold LG, SDA, BF and the Pirates may yet manage to get a narrow majority between them (47.4% in the poll), but this again leaves the SDA right wing in a key position to spoil reforms and require the Pirates to uphold strict party discipline (a tall order...), though Viðreisn is a joker and may well be able to deliver outside support to a centre-left government on key areas (new constitution, fishing quotas, highland national park, agricultural reform, tax system).
There are of course a month left of the campaign, and a reelection of SDG as PP leader this Sunday could get the left new momentum.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 28, 2016 9:19:51 GMT
I will be there the week beforehand. Hopefully I will gather some election material to share on here.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2016 9:21:18 GMT
I will be there the week beforehand. Hopefully I will gather some election material to share on here. What sort of material are you thinking of? |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2016 10:03:45 GMT
One thing to remember when evaluating MMR polls is that it that it currently looks very unlikely that the Rural Party, Democracy Watch and Rainbow will participate in the election and that the Humanist Party is only running in one constituency (Reykjavík North).
Since the Households Party has been exposed as a fraud it is all but guaranteed that they won't be running. The situation for the
Dawn still hasn't presented lists for the two northern constituencies and the same goes for the Icelandic National Front (as there is very little immigration to Northern Iceland and the mentality up there is "the more the merrier" I doubt it would receive more than a token number of votes in the North anyway). The situation for the other micro parties is unclear, though the People's Front will run in the three capital region constituencies.
That the parties can wait until two weeks before the election (14 October) to hand in your candidate list is one of big jokers in this election.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 28, 2016 10:06:09 GMT
I will be there the week beforehand. Hopefully I will gather some election material to share on here. What sort of material are you thinking of? Leaflets and the like, I assume I'll run into some stalls (I'll be in Reykjavik and Selfoss). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2016 13:27:44 GMT
I'm in Iceland next month DW - You seem to visit quite every country?! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 30, 2016 13:34:00 GMT
I'm in Iceland next month DW - You seem to visit quite every country?! Ha, my other half has a love of long weekends abroad! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 30, 2016 14:56:03 GMT
DW - You seem to visit quite every country?! Ha, my other half has a love of long weekends abroad! So do me and my other half. This weekend, we are in Hull. I think you win. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2016 15:02:54 GMT
Ha, my other half has a love of long weekends abroad! So do me and my other half. This weekend, we are in Hull. I think you win. At least you can say "We've been to Hull and back". |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 30, 2016 15:04:37 GMT
So do me and my other half. This weekend, we are in Hull. I think you win. At least you can say "We've been to Hull and back". Triffic, Del. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 30, 2016 16:05:32 GMT
Ha, my other half has a love of long weekends abroad! So do me and my other half. This weekend, we are in Hull. I think you win. Well, it is the cheapest bit of Norway. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 30, 2016 17:30:11 GMT
At least you can say "We've been to Hull and back". Triffic, Del. "No Income tax, no VAT..." I was at University in Hull when they were filming that. My mates met Nicholas Lyndhurst in Spiders nightclub. I was in the University Health Centre recovering from having my appendix removed. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 30, 2016 20:57:36 GMT
I'm in Iceland next month DW - You seem to visit quite every country?! Yes, Global Moderator, you see. |
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