Icelandic Althing election 2016

[Devil Wincarnate]

@odo, do you know if this lot are standing this time round?  Unfortunately the only sources I can find on them are in Icelandic.

grapevine.is/news/2014/07/23/wants-to-make-iceland-norways-20th-county/

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Sept 16, 2016 17:39:01 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I'm in Iceland next month so I shall watch with interest.

What a terrible selection to vote for.

Well, I think its better than in most Western countries, but that of course depends on where you stand. 

[Deleted]

Sept 16, 2016 17:43:13 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

@odo , do you know if this lot are standing this time round?  Unfortunately the only sources I can find on them are in Icelandic.

grapevine.is/news/2014/07/23/wants-to-make-iceland-norways-20th-county/

They aren't. I think this was a short-lived "craze" in 2014. The Icelandic economy is also too strong for such quick fixes to be interesting. The crisis is over. 

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The historian Gustav Níelsson will top the Icelandic National Front list in Reykjavík North. A former candidate for IP in various elections he is a fairly respectable name (by far right standards) and may give them some legitimacy.  

"I do not trust the Independence Party on the cases, that burn the whole of Europe at the moment; the issues of asylum and migration and the Islamization of the continent with the support of left radicals of all parties" 

He left IP in January and was appointed alternate in Reykjavik Human Rights on behalf of the Progress Party and the Friends of the Airport, but his appointment was withdrawn after discussion about his comments on Muslims and LGBT people. 

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Popular geologist, volcano expert author and former Maoist Ari Trausti Gudmundsson tops the LG list in the South. First time in 30 years he is active in party politics. Second, councillor and sheep farmer Heiða Guðný Ásgeirsdóttir and third student Daníel E. Arnarsson. LG has decided to have at least one young person in the Top 3 in each constituency. 

Ari ran for president in 2012 and got 8.6%. 

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Tomorrow PP in the NE constituency choose their list. If SDG doesn't get the top spot it is generally agreed he has to step down as party leader. No less than three MPs are challenging him: Höskuldur Þórhallsson, Þórunn Egilsdóttir and Líneik Anna Sævarsdóttir. It might well safe him that the opposition will be split.

On the extraordinary party conference in two weeks he will be challenged by at least random nobody Sveinbjörn Eyjólfsson (leader of a cattle station), who has secured that the election will go on. It looks like Minister of Social Affairs and party secretary Eygló Harðardóttir has given up and realized she is too far left in the party to have a chance.

PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson no longer rules out challenging SDG and says he "can not imagine staying on in an unchanged leadership". He has the support of most MPs, and the two most important internal power brokers: former party leader Guðni Ágústsson and Þórólfur Gíslason, who leads the large co-op Kaupfélag Skagfirðinga. SDG claim they have a deal SIJ won't challenge him, but that was likely made before he went off the deep end.

Last week SDG came up with two new fanciful stories about the supposed "international conspiracy" that he claims was behind his downfall. One about hacking of his personal computer and installing a "spy program" (the laptop was checked, no sign of it) and one about a meeting in Canada where he was offered some kind of deal from persons representing the creditors of the crashed banks. He seems increasingly delusional (even by his standards..). 

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SDG got the top spot in the NE with a huge margin to number two. His old rival Höskuldur Þórhallsson finished third and now leaves politics (as the 9th PP MP). The margin might deter PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson from challenging him.

Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 71.4 
Þórunn Egilsdóttir 16.4 
Höskuldur Þórhallsson 10.1 
Líneik Anna Sævarsdóttir 0.8 

PP list in the NE:

1. Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson
2. Þórunn Egilsdóttir 
3. Líneik Anna Sævarsdóttir 
4. Sigfús Karlsson
5. Margrét Jónsdóttir  

Another SDG critic Akureyri councillor and alternate in the Althing Hjálmar Bogi Hafliðason didn't make it to the top 5 and decided not to run for one of the lower slots.  

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Óttarr Proppé reelected as BF chairman on their congress. Fellow ex-Best Party councillor Eva Einarsdóttir beat MP Björt Ólafsdóttir and became new chairman of their board. The former Best Party people are now in total control and the Social Liberals may simply leave for SDA or Vidreisn.

The party decided to set a goal of Iceland having 800,000 inhabitants in 2050 (sic!). Up from around 320,000 today, so 2,5 times as many in 34 years. Immigration isn't normally an issue in Icelandic elections, but with the recent Icelandic National Front demo and now this, it might be (though still a minor one). Iceland has a birthrate of 1.9 per woman, so they no longer reproduce (but did for much longer than the rest of Western Europe - 2.2 in 2010). At 2.6 the Faroese are the only Scandinavian people reproducing themselves nowadays.

The party was the only one that voted against the governments much criticized agricultural 10-year deal (which gives the MS dairy total control over all milk production in Iceland), MS is already abusing their dominant position and lots of people boycott them, so a controversial decision. The Liberals in Vidreisn are of course vehemently against this as well.

LG, SDA and the Pirates decided to abstain despite the opposition actually being in the majority among the attending MPs during the final vote. Its in accordance with Icelandic political tradition not to block such major deals about a whole sector of the economy if you are in the minority, but the "milk monopoly" is widely hated (also among many IP members and voters). IP allowing PP to strengthen it was probably one of the things that made Vidreisn take off in the polls.

BF also decided to be in favor of a fully market based agricultural sector, saying that Icelandic products are now of such high quality that they do not need protection from foreign competition, and that customs, fiscal aid and control prevents innovation and competition.

I had assumed BF was finished, but they have gotten a fair bit of media attention on this and now at least have a couple of themes that separate them from the rest of the (centre-left) opposition, so they may still have a chance.

[Devil Wincarnate]

I'm not sure Iceland could support 800,000 people could it? Half the population would starve in an emergency!

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Sept 18, 2016 17:05:05 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I'm not sure Iceland could support 800,000 people could it? Half the population would starve in an emergency!

Lots of countries rely on importing foods.

Besides a large part of their export is fish, so they export more foodstuffs than they import.

According to their Bureau of Statistics the population will rise to between 450,000 and 500,000 with natural growth (older generations being smaller than the younger) + current level of immigration.

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Healthcare is the top issue among Icelanders according to a Maskína poll. Other welfare issues follow and "matters of principle" are at the bottom. This is bad news for the Pirates, but difficult to say who will benefit the most. The government has been widely criticized for not investing enough in healthcare despite significant budget increases. It should be a good theme for SDA, but SDA are hopeless. 

www.ruv.is/sites/default/files/maskinaskyrsla.pdf

After the crash access to healthcare was reduced and investments were postponed, so there is a huge backlog and most Icelanders feel that this hasn't been taken care of fast enough now that the crisis is over. 

Neurologist & CEO and co-founder of the successful bio-pharma company deCODE Genetics Kári Stefánsson more or less went into battle with SDG in Spring and collected 85,000+ signatures for a petition demanding higher investments in healthcare.

45.2% of Icelanders consider healthcare the most important issue and a further 31% has it in their Top 3. 13.6% consider better pensions for the elderly and disabled the most important issue and 7.2% housing. Only 1% mentioned immigration and refugees, and 1.5% EU-membership. 

Using a 3-2-1 point ranking for each respondents top three Maskína created an index with the following distribution:

Healthcare 31.0
Pensioners and disabled 15.3
Housing 9.6
Education 8.6
The domestic airport in Reykjavik (to be moved and the space used for housing, or kept open on its current location - an urban/rural divide) 6.4
Fees and access to natural resources 6.2
Taxes 6.1
New Constitution 4.6
Rural job situation 4.3
Environment 3.0
Immigration and refugees 2.9
EU-negotiations 2.1

Women, 18-25 year olds, poor people and Reykjavíkians were most likely to have healthcare at the top. Pensions mainly interest pensioners and housing the 25--34 year olds, so clearly self-interest based for those two.

Highest top priority to healthcare share among LG voters (65.7%) and lowest among PP voters (16.3)

Highest top priority to pensions share among PP voters (18.6) and lowest among BF voters (2.7)

Highest top priority to housing share among BF voters (20.8 - city folks) and lowest among LG voters (1.6)

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Sturla Jónsson will top Dawns list in the South constituency. This is the smallest of the four constituencies they are running in and seems a bit of a waste of their only "voter magnet". I had expected him to get the big SW.

Party leader Helga Þórðardóttir, gets Reykjavík South,  Hólmsteinn A. Brekkan in Reykjavík North, and Ragnar Þór Ingólfsson in the SW. So far they have no candidates in the two northern constituencies. 

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The Althing was dissolved yesterday and the election officially called by PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson.

Last opportunity to declare your candidacy is October 15.

After the primaries the situation is that least 21 of 63 leaves parliament (up from 13 in 2013):

PP (7)
Höskuldur Þórhallsson (after losing to SDG in the NE), Jóhanna María Sigmundsdóttir, Frosti Sigurjónsson, Vigdís Hauksdóttir, Sigrún Magnúsdóttir, Haraldur Einarsson and Páll Jóhann Pálsson

IP (6)
Ragnheiður Elín Árnadóttir, Elín Hirst (after weak primary - very interesting and impressive lady, so a shame), Illugi Gunnarsson, Einar K. Guðfinnsson, Hanna Birna Kristjánsdóttir and Ragnheiður Ríkharðsdóttir

SDA (3)
Ólína Kjerúlf Þorvarðardóttir, Kristján L. Möller and Katrín Júlíusdóttir, från Gröna vänstern

LG (1)
Ögmundur Jónasson

BF (3)
Guðmundur Steingrímsson, Róbert Marshall and Brynhildur Pétursdóttir 

Pirates (1)
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson.

Two MPs got lousy primaries and are at high risk losing their seats:

Valgerður Bjarnadóttir (SDA) #3 in Reykjavík North
Unnur Brá Konráðsdóttir (IP) #4 on their list in South (voted against the government on the SDG votes, surprising she isn't in Viðreisn)

Óttarr Proppé, Björt Ólafsdóttir and Páll Valur Björnsson from BF seems destined to lose as they wont pass the threshold- 

Certain return of two ex-MPs:
Asphalt layer Jón Þór Ólafsson from the Pirates, who got elected in 2013, but left after a half term in 2015
Former Minister and IP deputy Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir for Viðreisn

2013 and 2009 set a joint record for new MPs with 27, but as 26 MPs seems certain not to reenter that will most likely be surpassed this time with upwards of half the Althing being changed. 

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I will try in time to give a general description of the six constituencies, the 2013 result and interesting candidates, so setting aside six posts.

South-West (suburbia and exurbia)

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Reykjavík North

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Reykjavík South

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South

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North-East

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North-West

[Foggy]

Two non-contiguous constituencies? That's painful to look at!