Icelandic Althing election 2016

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Gallup poll shows that no less than 29% of voters decided who to vote for on the election day. Up from 26% in 2013. 
www.visir.is/assets/pdf/XZ21921121.PDF

IP voters decided the earliest (46% had decided a month in advance and only 20% picked them on election day), and BF voters the latest (34% at the polling station and 20% earlier on election day). Only 1% of voters had chosen BF a month before the election. Its really a party that thrives on picking up marginal voters. 46% of Viðreisn voters decided on the final day (24% at the polling station, 22% earlier the same day). Though I would assume a substantial number of BF and Viðreisn voters decided to vote for one of the two Liberal parties weeks in advance and then made up their mind late regarding which one to pick. 

Share that had decided more than four weeks in advance:

IP 46% (very loyal core electorate)
Pirates 40% (down to their core vote)
SDA 33% (obviously a high share of core voters, give how low they went)
PP 32% (lower than normally - likely due to the Panama Papers)
LG 29%
Viðreisn 12%
BF 1%

Decision point:

At the polling place 17%
Earlier on the election day 12%
During the last week 20%
Four to one week before election day 20%
Earlier than four weeks 31%

Only 31% had decided a month before the election, this share was 38% in 2009 and 57% in 2007. 

Preferred coalition partners (1st and 2nd preference):

IP voters: PP and Vidreisn
LG: SDA and Pirates
Pirates: LG and SDA 
Vidreisn: SDA and Pirates (which is remarkable given how negative the party leadership has been towards the Pirates, but a lot of Vidreisn voters are former Pirate supporters of the more economically liberal kind)
PP: IP, SDA (somewhat interesting that europhile and fairly market liberal SDA beats LG)
BF: SDA and Pirates (not Vidreisn..) 
SDA: LG and Pirates

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There are currently two rival negotiation processes going on: The Pirates, Viðreisn, BF and SDA are trying to land an internal compromise among the anti-protectionist opposition, which they can then present to LG in an attempt to get the five-party coalition talks renewed. Meanwhile Bjarni Ben and Katrín J. have negotiated for several days - reportedly mainly about possible economic compromises - on whether a grand coalition can be established. The most likely grand coalition is IP, PP, LG, and SDA as both parties want their "sidekicks" in the government, but SDA don't seem too keen on this, and LG can not really enter a coalition with IP and PP alone (the propping up a "corrupt" government narrative" + risk of being marginalized).

If the four parties land a compromise that isn't too right wing on taxes and somewhat accommodating of the needs of small/rural fishing communities LG could probably accept it (at least as a starting point for negotiations), so I would expect them to stall the negotiations with IP as there is no longer any possibility of a new government presenting its own budget. But given that Bjarni Benediktsson as Minister of Finance controls the current (preliminary) budget process LG may get more of their desired welfare improvements implemented by working with IP. PP remain completely sidelined.

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Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir and Bjarni Benediktsson have ended their consultations, and their parties will not enter into coalition talks with each other. Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir mentions the possibility of forming a "national government" (= a government of all major parties) like the one Iceland had 1939-42. She declines to comment on the ongoing five party talks, and say they will have to discuss the matter in their parliamentary group, which will not be gathered tomorrow. Right now LG are probably mostly focused on influencing the preliminary budget and simply await what concessions SDA and the Pirates can get from Vidreisn before deciding whether to reopen the five party coalition talks. If Iceland does get a "national government" it will be interesting whether the Pirates are included, they are a bit too big to be left out. On the other hand the 1939-42 government didn't include the Socialists, and maybe the Pirates are the modern "radicals" that need to be kept out.

[Deleted]

The Pirates, Viðreisn, BF and SDA have started government talks. LG are invited, but have so far declined the invitation. PP also say they are uninterested (but are hardly welcome anyway). The four parties would be in a reasonably strong position if the president decides to accept a minority government. They have significantly fewer seats than IP/PP, but they occupy the center ground on many issues and would have majority options to both sides. Though SDA and the Pirates are still hoping LG will come around on taxes and fishing if they can get some concessions from Viðreisn (and the four parties also lack an obvious contender for PM, Benedikt Jóhannesson wants it, but is too inexperienced, and Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir is too marginalized within Viðreisn and connected to the banking crash through her husband, which would make it hard for the Pirates to accept her; Oddný G. is from a micro party and no longers leads it, and no one else have ministerial experience - they might end up with Óttarr Proppé, who is a good negotiator and a unifying figure).

All party leaders meet the president today for yet another admonition about their responsibilities, but he will soon have to choose between a "national government", or allowing a minority government. Unless LG and the four "more-or-less-liberal" parties agree to give it a second try. 

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Not much news from the consultations with the president this morning, apart from Katrín Jakobsdóttir saying everybody needs to take a break from the negotiations and that she will focus on the Althing and the preliminary budget for a while - she looks worn out and harrowed. Benedikt Jóhannesson also suggested it was time to take a break and spend a day or two with the family. Though I expect the four party negotiations to carry on at a less intensive pace. They probably want to have a deal ready if the president opens up for a minority government.

[lennon]

This suggests that the Pirates have been given the mandate to try and form a Government, but it seems unclear to me if it has to be a majority coalition or not.

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Dec 2, 2016 19:52:27 GMT lennon said:

This suggests that the Pirates have been given the mandate to try and form a Government, but it seems unclear to me if it has to be a majority coalition or not.

The president still demands a majority government, so a renewed five party coalition is their only realistic option.

Guðni Th. is obliged to choose the option he considers most likely to succeed. The Pirates are the 3rd largest party, and given the ongoing four party negotiations and the Pirates being closer to LG than Viðreisn are this is probably the most sensible choice, so I doubt it will be that controversial. The only real alternative was BF, but they are smaller and have bound themselves to an alliance with Viðreisn, which makes it hard for them to be mediators.

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The mandate is given to Birgitta Jónsdóttir (it needs to go to a person, even if the Pirates have collective leadership) and the president insists she comes alone to meetings with him, but she has underlined that she will de facto share the mandate with Smári McCarty and Einar Aðal­steinn Brynj­ólfs­son.

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I will continue to post polls here as they influence the parties' negotiating power. Only two parties stand to gain: LG and BF, while PP and Viðreisn will lose the most.

Like MMR the first Gallup poll has LG gaining c. 5%. The Pirates are at their lowest level in 22 months, but the difference to their election result is within the MoE) and SDA at their lowest level ever in a Gallup poll, but again the difference to the election is also within the MoE. Its two points better for IP than the MMR poll, but still one point lower than the election result. PP drops 2.5 points and BF gains about as much as Viðreisn loses. 

IP 28.0 (-1.0)
LG 20.9 (+5.0)
Pirates 13.7 (-0.8)
PP 9.0 (-2.5)
Viðreisn 8.9 (-1.6)
BF 8.6 (+1.4)
SDA 5.3 (-0.4)
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People's Party 3.0 (-0.5)
Others 2.6 (+0.4)

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Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir: "It is evident that the talks between the five parties broke up due to Við­reisn not having any conviction that this cooperation could work. I do not know what should have changed in that regard. I wonder whether it is not time to form a national government and vote again after a set time. I wonder whether this isn't the easiest way in view of the situation."

The Pirates will have their work cut out for them if they are to unite LG and Við­reisn - especially given that LG stands to gain four seats from a new election and Við­reisn to lose a couple. The potential compromise includes LG accepting auction based fishing quotas with reserved quotas for the small and/or remote communities, but Við­reisn will then have to accept at least temporary tax hikes to pay for investments in healthcare & education and increased pensions and service to the elderly and disabled until the revenue from the fishing quotas starts coming in. So the question is if they are willing to do that, or fear that temporary tax increases will end up being permanent. And if sale of the quotas can bring in enough given that the outgoing government set large amounts aside for road projects etc. 

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LG deputy chairman Björn Valur Gíslason has published a short analysis of the election, which basically shoots down a five party government. 

"Several parties went into the election campaign with the greatest emphasis on extensive and fast structural reforms. Viðreisn, Bright Future and the Pirate Party based their campaigns on systemic changes in fisheries, agriculture and economy. Independence and Progress, however,  stood up against all the system changes.
In the election campaign the Left Greens placed the greatest importance on the reconstruction of healthcare and welfare and greater equality in society.  SDA was on the same page in combination with structural changes in the direction of what the other opposition parties stood for. With this in mind, the two pro-system parties got 29 MPs, the three system changes parties 21 seats and the welfare parties 13 MPs. This is of course an oversimplification as everyone can see.
Fisheries, the EU, a new constitution and agricultural issues scored low (in importance) in the election campaign, as I expected them to. Social policy in the broad sense was on top. An examination of the parties electoral promises show their focus coalesce most on welfare and healthcare where they have proposed varying improvements, though backtracked somewhat from the eve of the election. The backbone of the next government will not be significant and fast structural reforms. If it was up to the voters it will be formed on welfare and equality. In this all should be able to join in."

Even though he was elected from Reykjavík North this time Björn Valur Gíslason as a former trawler captain and local councillor from the fishing port Ólafsfjörður in the NE represents the "rural reds" in the party, and they clearly do not want the party to waste any political capital on constitutional changes,  symbolic EU referendums and compromising on large scale market based reforms of fishing and agriculture.

....

Acting PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson now also speaks about  new elections after the budget (this would de facto be in late March/early April no one really wants to bother with winter elections) and until then (if acceptable to the president) a minority government (= IP/PP continues).

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Viðreisn and BF have so far declined to go into formal coalition talks with the left, and IP are still trying to lure them back. 

Since this forum likes trivia: The longest government formation in Iceland was in 1987 where it took IP leader Þor­steinn Páls­son (now in Viðreisn) 74 days to patch a grand coalition of IP, PP and the Social Democrats together after IP had suffered their hitherto worst defeat with 27.2% following the exodus of Minister of Industry Albert Guðmundsson (first professional Icelandic footballer whose club list included Arsenal, AC Milan, Rangers, and FC Nancy), who had to resign after accusations of tax fraud and felt the party let him down. So 38 days in the Icelandic party leaders still have more than a month to go before they beat the record. 

Albert formed the centrist and populist Citizen's Party, which failed to pass the threshold in 1991 (after the government had been smart enough to get Albert out of the way by appointing him ambassador to France), and their faith is one reason many Icelandic political observers are skeptical about the long term prospects of Viðreisn, though Viðreisn have more of an ideological core. 

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Former LG chairman (and Minister of Finance) Steingrímur Sigfússon elected as Speaker of the Althing with a 60-1 majority (2 were absent). He was one of the Deputy Speakers and the most senior MP, but a bit surprising because he is one of only five opposition MPs with cabinet experience - could be a sign LG do not plan to enter government (or at least only a national government where they do not need to cover many portfolios). 

[Georg Ebner]

IP didn't demand the Speaker? Or was it part of an agreement?

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Dec 7, 2016 2:52:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

IP didn't demand the Speaker? Or was it part of an agreement?

No, its usually not that partisan, and IP/PP don't have a majority between them anyway. I think IP are satisfied with it going to a traditionalist from one of the old, "dependable" parties. 

Shortly after the election the Pirates said they wanted it, but that was as a premium for outside support to an LG, Viðreisn, BF government. 

[Deleted]

After a week of informal negotiations the leaders of the five parties met at 19.30 to discuss whether they would enter into formal government negotiations and subsequently consulted with their parliamentary groups, but only the Pirates and SDA ended up committing to government formations tonight. The leaders of the two Liberal parties and LG will meet again at noon tomorrow and consult their parliamentary groups afterwards. Birgitta J. says she will "probably" hand the mandate back to the president if there is no agreement.

[Deleted]

The five party negotiations have collapsed and Birgitta J. hands back the mandate to the president at 5pm. 

The blame game has started. The Prates say it was primarily fishing and secondarily fiscal matters that caused the collapse. LG asserts they were prepared to enter into formal negotiations at the beginning of the week long process, but that there was too far between the sides in the end. They mention investments in healthcare, education and infrastructure as the stumbling blocks (= how to finance them). 

Birgitta J. says a non-parliamentary government is preferable to a "national government" that would accomplish nothing (which is an, ehm.. interesting take from a "radical democracy party"). LG say they no longer rule out a minority government. 

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LG is divided. Katrín Jakobsdóttir and her green wing would prefer an alliance of Liberals and leftists, but since its by now evident that this will not mean more investments in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, or improved living conditions for the elderly and disabled, than working with IP the red part of the party (and especially the rural reds who are used to working with IP andd PP in the municipalities), are against this. They view it as more attractive to reach a compromise with IP and thereby avoid free market reforms of agriculture and fishing (which would escalate rural depopulation) and any "EU nonsense".

Deputy leader Björn Valur Gíslason said to RÚV on Saturday that it should be easier for LG to find common ground with IP than Viðreisn and BF. He also emphasized that it was a necessity for LG to become part of the government - otherwise he feared a sharp turn to the right under an IP, Viðreisn, BF government. 

Bjarni Benediktsson keeps both options open (Viðreisn, BF or LG), but the protectionist wing in the party is getting louder when it comes to promoting a grand coalition. Party veteran and former minister Sturla Böðvarsson has suggested an IP/LG coalition with outside support from PP (as it lacks one seat for a majority). The argument is that the two parties will eventually have to compromise on the big issues and find common solutions on infrastructure, the balance between energy extraction and conservation (incl. a highlands national park), rural policy, the structure of the welfare system and constitutional reform and that this would be easier to accomplish in a bipartisan coalition where radical reforms of fishing & farming, currency matters and EU were off the table. 

[Deleted]

I have previously erroneously said that the 1987 government formation was the longest with 74 days, but it took 117 days in 1947, which should be the record. Icelandic media say the current government formation is so far the 5th longest (unfortunately without specifying the ranking and length of the last two), but since it will probably drag on past the holidays it should be able to go higher up the list. 

[Deleted]

President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson has not given mandate to form a government to anyone, but instead once again urged the party leaders to explore the possibilities via informal discussions. He has now - finally - opened up for a minority government by instructing the party leaders to "seek ways to form a government, which enjoys majority support, or can at least guard itself against distrust (= a vote of no confidence)", so a minority government with outside support from a permanent ally is now acceptable. 

If this fails, and Guðni Th. keeps going by size, acting PM Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson from PP is next in line to get the mandate. He says he will attempt to form a majority government of IP, PP and LG with PP as the kit in the middle keeping the government together, and that it would be a very strong and powerful government. The "eurosceptic protectionists united" is an option that has previously been dismissed by LG, but given their deputy leader's recent statement about the party "needing to be in government" and the rural reds seemingly being quite influential in LG he may have some hope. Sigurður Ingi is personally fairly centrist and "populist" on economics and would probably like LG in the government as a counterweight to the IP right wing. 

Guðni Th. is in no way obliged to keep giving the mandate in turn, but could either give it to Viðreisn as the kingmakers (and only one seat smaller than PP), or let Bjarni Ben try once more.