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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2016 16:21:34 GMT
Its unlikely that there will be serious government negotiations before after Christmas, since the parties need to focus on the budget until then.
There are only two majority combinations left on the table (both with Bjarni Ben as PM), and both seem impossible.
IP, BF, Viðreisn: This has been tried twice now and would require Bjarni Ben strong-arming his protectionist right wing to succeed and he is unlikely to have the internal strength for that. Otherwise the two Liberal parties will be better off being part of a centrist minority government.
IP, LG, PP: While the Rural Reds in LG would prefer this (given the alternatives), it would cost LG dearly among Reykjavík voters who chose them to get rid of "the right" and would be far too electorally costly at a time where LG looks set to become a big party if they play their cards right.
There are three possible minority combinations:
IP, PP: Its hard to see Viðreisn be willing to give outside support to this as they would be the saviours of the "corrupt" and protectionist/eurosceptic government without getting many concessions on their pet issues. It was also a fairly unpopular combination among parts of the two parties own voters (PP left wingers and economically liberal IP voters).
Pirates, SDA, BF, Viðreisn: This is the easiest coalition to form as the parties have already made most of the necessary compromises, but the question is whether LG can accept being outside the government. It might also be hard to agree who should lead it. Viðreisn are still uneasy about the Pirates decision making process, but its the government they could influence the most and they seem to be mellowing on this issue.
LG, SDA, Pirates, BF: The pre-election centre-left coalition might be able to compromise internally, but the question is whether Viðreisn can accept it - and if BF are comfortably breaking their new alliance with Viðreisn.
Alternatively either a non-parliamentary government (utanþingsstjórn) handpicked by the president, or a "national government" with representatives of all major parties could rule Iceland until new elections in April (too costly to hold them before).
If I had to guess I think the "europhile liberal" minority government of Pirates, SDA, BF, Viðreisn is most likely, but it would be blocked on most of its pet issues (EU, currency pegging, fishing quotas and liberalization of agriculture), though it might agree on a new constitution with LG. The four parties could hope voters would punish the opposition for being obstructionist and give them a majority next time. This coalition would obviously put the unorthodox internal decision making practices within the Pirate Party to a test (which they may well fail).
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2016 16:33:28 GMT
During the LG parliamentary group meeting Monday deputy leader Björn Valur Gíslason directly advocated for a coalition with IP rather than a five party coalition. The failure of the talks has raised renewed doubt about whether Katrín Jakobsdóttir controls the party, or party founder and chairman 1999-2013 Steingrímur J. Sigfússon is still in control. Björn Valur Gíslason and Steingrímur J. Sigfússon (a geologist, but born on a sheep farm in the NE) are close allies and Björn Valur often acts as mouthpiece for the founder. It seems clear that the rural wing has managed to lock the party into an almost fundamentalist opposition to market based reforms of agriculture and fishing.
On taxes LG this time merely advocated a new wealth tax on 10 billion (with an exception for the value of family homes) and a reintroduced sugar tax on 2 billion, but their plans required an additional 18 billion in revenue and especially Viðreisn were convinced this could only be raised through higher income taxes (which LG have earlier suggested levying on capital gains and high incomes) and/or VAT (mainly on the tourist sector) and found that unacceptable. But Katrín Jakobsdóttir has denied this.
It has long been clear that being in LG probably constrains Katrín Jakobsdóttir and that she as the most popular politician in the country could gain more influence as leader of a broad centre-left alliance (often nicknamed Katrínarflokkurin) as was suggested by many during the last term (incl. several candidates in the SDA leadership election).
LG is split in greens (nearly all urban), urban reds and rural reds. Katrín Jakobsdóttir is on the left wing of the greens and it seems she has managed to bridge the gap between the reds and greens in the capital area, which leaves the urban/rural divide as the most salient. As in IP the rurals are overrepresented in LG partly due to the electoral system but also because many capital region residents are on the rural side in the big issue of whether the steady drift towards a "city state with a lot of hinterland" with the population concentrated in Greater Reykjavík and a handful of other centers should be halted by government intervention and protectionism (and if that is even possible), or economic efficiency and the interests of (urban) consumers should be prioritized. Going into coalition with the four "urban" parties (with no counterweight from PP) seems to have been a bridge too far for the rural reds.
# All three SDA MPS are elected from constituencies outside the capital area, but two of them were born in Akureyri and one in Reykjavík, and as self employed architect, ex-teacher, and leader of the healthcare service for Western Iceland (and ex-journalist and social worker) they are all urban middle class both by background and occupation (though Guðjón S. Brjánsson actually worked as a fisherman in Ísafjörður for a year and his parents were rural born, so some rural roots and elected in the NW.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2016 6:00:47 GMT
The chairman of the People's Front of Iceland (which got 0.3% in the election) Þorvaldur Þorvaldsson has written an open letter to the president encouraging him to authorize the front to form a non-parliamentary government (utanþingsstjórn). "There is currently a profound political crisis in society. Although much is spoken about the economic boom, it only applies to a small part of the population. Additionally its clear that when the next economic bubble bursts, it will again be the poor people who will be allowed to carry the burden. All politics in modern societies is about whether the emphasis is on social solutions or whether market capitalism is allowed to drive the economy and the breakdown of social values. In recent decades market based corporatism has contributed to rapidly growing inequality in Iceland, and increased cronism is what has happened at the expense of wealth creation. It is therefore necessary to unwind the much loved deregulations by increasing the proportion of social solutions in order to bring balance and greater equality to our society. The People's Front in the recent elections presented a detailed agenda, the Four Year Plan (I guess a five year plan would be too old school..  ), based on plans for social connections in the societal infrastructure, and a key factor is that the financial system will be operated socially, for that means it will absorb all available value in society and feed social welfare and other essential public services." That must be one of the weirdest "attempts" at a Communist coup ever.  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2016 5:17:13 GMT
As in the municipal elections in 2014 and the recent presidential election turnout was significantly lower among younger voters than older. This time it was lowest among 20-24 year olds with 65.7% and highest among those aged 65-69 years with 90.2%. So it looks like the standard Western pattern with a significant age gap in voting has reached Iceland. Turnout was 79.5% among women and 78.8% among men, which is a smaller gender gap than usual.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2016 19:55:44 GMT
The budget was approved late in the evening on the 23th (possibly late enough to save the MPs from eating fermented skate as is tradition on Þorláksmessa). It was approved by 27 "Yes" votes from the governing partiets, while the 33 opposition MPs present abstained. The proposal had been agreed in the fiscal committee beforehand, so the opposition abstaining was a formality (not their budget). There are extra funds allocated to healthcare, education and the police and coast guard, as well an upgrade of the road network and a tunnel at Dýrafjörður in the West Fiords. Healthcare workers, policemen and Coast Guard officers consider the allocated funds insufficient, but that is hardly a surprise. The Althing will reconvene on January 24, which gives the party leaders some time for government negotiations. If there is no result by January 24 the president will almost certainly either call a new election in spring, or appoint a minority government. The Althing also approved new rules for the state employees pension fund, which are seen as unfavorable by the trade unions. The proposal was approved by 38 votes from IP, PP Viðreisn and BF, while 14 MPs from the Pirates and Left Greens voted against, and a further 8 MPs from SDA, Left Greens and the Pirates abstained. So a clear ideological split with BF voting with the right. IP, BF and Viðreisn have had talks and are said to be closer to reaching an agreement, but who knows. They have failed twice before. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2016 1:31:45 GMT
New informal government talks have been initiated between IP, BF and Viðreisn. Its considered the only possible majority coalition at this point, so if it turns out third time wasn't the charm it will be either a minority government or new elections.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2017 1:49:48 GMT
On Friday the 30th Bjarni Benediktsson got a 2nd mandate to form a majority government and the new round of talks with BF and Viðreisn are now formal (and thus monitored by the president). The first formal meeting is on Monday. The parties have agreed on a healthcare plan and are said to be getting closer on fishing and the EU, though no details of the compromise on EU have been revealed. The goal is to present a new government when the Althing reconvenes on the 24th, and given that this is the last chance for a majority government I would expect Bjarni Ben to keep the mandate until then, unless he relinquishes it himself. With a new ministry of tourism, infrastructure and communication in the pipeline the likely distribution of portfolios would be 5-3-3.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2017 8:38:00 GMT
Gallup poll published December 29. I am still bringing them here as they may influence the negotiations, most importantly the dismal result for Viðreisn should make them more amenable (and BF gain less than Viðreisn lose). The poll indicates a significant shift to the left compared to the election result. SDA are seemingly rewarded for being constructive and are on 7.5%. LG lose a bit compared to the previous polls, but less than a point and well within the MoE, so it doesn't seem like voters are punishing them for de facto blocking the 5-party government.
Cente-left: +7.5
LG 20.0 (+4.1)
SDA 7.5 (+1.8)
Pirates 14.6 (+0.1)
BF 8.7 (+1.5)
Centre-right: -5.7
Viðreisn 7.4 (-3.1)
PP 8.9 (-2.6)
IP 29.0 (nc)
People's Party 2.2 (-1.3)
Dawn 1.0 (-0.7)
Others 0.8 (+0.3)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2017 9:25:07 GMT
Benedikt Jóhannesson says that the three parties have agreed on all major issues and that there could be a new government by the end of the week.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 2, 2017 17:39:01 GMT
Benedikt Jóhannesson says that the three parties have agreed on all major issues and that there could be a new government by the end of the week. Will be very interesting to see what the compromises are... |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2017 20:25:45 GMT
Benedikt Jóhannesson says that the three parties have agreed on all major issues and that there could be a new government by the end of the week. Will be very interesting to see what the compromises are... According to Fréttablaðið the Liberals have de facto given up on EU, but get a fig leaf to hide it behind. The parties have agreed in principle to hold a referendum on renewed negotiations, and if that results in a "yes" a membership referendum will be held, but IP are allowed to vote against the proposal in the Althing, and if the party as expected vote en bloc IP and PP only need three from LG to vote with them, and even if LG have agreed to support a referendum (as good democrats etc.) its unlikely that their most eurosceptic MPs will not vote with IP/PP in such a vote (that would ofc have been different if LG were in government). So in reality there isn't going to be a referendum. On fisheries the quotas will gradually be auctioned off, but how "gradually" this process is going to happen and what species are included will indeed be interesting. On agriculture the import duties on chicken, cheese and pork will be substantially reduced right away and there will be a "general review" of the agricultural policy and the dairy Mjólkursamsalan (the "milk monopoly" that BF campaigned against) will be required to follow the monopoly legislation in full. They have reportedly also agreed on a "less inflation focused" monetary policy with lower interest rates to keep the krona from surging and (ideally) lower its value. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 3, 2017 22:10:38 GMT
Will be very interesting to see what the compromises are... According to Fréttablaðið the Liberals have de facto given up on EU, but get a fig leaf to hide it behind. Liberals = BF? |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 3, 2017 23:53:02 GMT
According to Fréttablaðið the Liberals have de facto given up on EU, but get a fig leaf to hide it behind. Liberals = BF? Both V and BF. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2017 13:10:07 GMT
Yes, I have been using it as a convenient shorthand for the two economically liberal parties, since they hav been negotiating as a bloc. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2017 8:11:07 GMT
I haven't updated this for a while, but it seems more and more likely the three parties will agree. BF still insist on an actual constitutional reform, which the others are reluctant to agree to, and they are still negotiating about environmental policy, but it seems there is a compromise on fishing, although no one will give any details on this sensitive matter.
The portfolio distribution is now said to be 5:3:2 with no new ministries and IP nominating a new Speaker, which is disappointing if true as they need someone in the cabinet focusing on infrastructure and tourism.
LG, SDA and PP negotiated last week, and both LG and PP subsequently sent compromise proposals to IP in the beginning of this week, but Bjarni Ben has so far ignored these last ditch attempts. It may hurt LG in the polls that they opened up for IP, LG, PP in the end after having declined this so adamently (but hard to say). It also underlines that the "rural reds" are much stronger internally than expected.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2017 13:40:01 GMT
Iceland should get a new government tomorrow as the party councils from IP, Viðreisn and BF will vote on the government program and portfolio distribution the party leaders have agreed on, but this should be a formality. Lots of rumors, but no reason to go deeper into those as we will know tomorrow. The 2016/17 government formation will thus end on the 73th day after election day and only be the third longest in Icelandic history, one day short of the 74 days it took in 1987 (and more than a month shy of the 117 days in 1947).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2017 14:03:13 GMT
"There is no sign of satisfaction among the people with the expected coalition between the relatives Bjarni [Benediktsson] and Benedikt [Jóhannesson]. On the contrary, no one seems to really be happy and nowhere are there visible signs that anyone desires the government that is now being patched together. There is a clearly noticeable sullenness among both politicians and the public on this issue. This will be a sullen government if it happens."
LG deputy leader Björn Valur Gíslason on his blog a couple of days ago.
Whether it will last for long is hard to say without knowing the compromise on fishing, but BVG is likely right that few people outside of the leadership of the three parties are happy about this; large parts of IP would probably have preferred taking their chances with an election (hoping they would be the preferred default option as usual).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 10, 2017 0:43:07 GMT
Iceland should get a new government tomorrow as the parliamentary groups from IP, Viðreisn and BF will vote on the government program and portfolio distribution the party leaders have agreed on How is the PortfolioDistribution going to be? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2017 1:45:53 GMT
Iceland should get a new government tomorrow as the parliamentary groups from IP, Viðreisn and BF will vote on the government program and portfolio distribution the party leaders have agreed on How is the PortfolioDistribution going to be? According to Morgunblaðið IP gets the Prime Minister's Office, the Ministry of the Interior, Education and Culture, Foreign Affairs and Industry & Trade, Viðreisn gets Finance, Fisheries and Agriculture and Social Affairs & Housing, while BF gets Health (half the Ministry of Welfare, but quite central in the current context) along with the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. Bjarni Benediktsson become Prime Minister, Benedikt Jóhannesson gets Finance and Ottar Proppé becomes Minister of Health. Ólöf Nordal has cancer and hasn't been to any meetings in the Althing since the election, but as IP deputy she will presumably keep the Interior, plus Bjarni Ben needs to appoint two women to avoid internal trouble, and he is short of experienced candidates after the big pre-election female exodus (partly unleashed by selection decisions). Rural IP is already up in arms against Viðreisn getting Fisheries and Agriculture. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2017 3:34:42 GMT
The three party councils have all agreed to the coalition. The vote was unanimous in IP and Viðreisn. In BF 51 voted for, 18 against and 1 abstained.
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), based on plans for social connections in the societal infrastructure, and a key factor is that the financial system will be operated socially, for that means it will absorb all available value in society and feed social welfare and other essential public services."
