mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Jul 11, 2016 13:28:37 GMT
I meant by the Labor Party. Turned out extra voters in their heartlands, but went back elsewhere.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2016 13:43:58 GMT
I meant by the Labor Party. Turned out extra voters in their heartlands, but went back elsewhere. There were likely several effects, but Labor ran a moderate campaign. 1) The last ditch populist appeal to swing voters from the Coalition payed off, but not in core Labor areas (or less so there). This at least seems likely in Queensland. They were trotting out Scott Morrison to announce a third crackdown on "welfare fraud" and Peter Dutton to explain how refugees were going to take your job while simultaneously taking welfare etc. 2) There likely was a late Labor swing, but it didn't (fully) manifest in Victoria and Queensland due to early holidays. Making the difference between (relatively more Labor leaning) election day votes and (relatively more Coalition) pre-voting/postals bigger. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 11, 2016 16:07:07 GMT
What would you say is a reasonable length of time to get a postal vote from, say, Carnarvon to Townsville? How about setting a deadline for the submission of postal votes such that they get there prior to the election count. It's hardly rocket science. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 11, 2016 16:25:41 GMT
Labor actually did better than expected so...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2016 16:32:16 GMT
I meant by the Labor Party. Turned out extra voters in their heartlands, but went back elsewhere. I may not have been clear: in QLD Labor got better swings in some of the longer shot LNP held seats, while the super marginals like Petrie and Capricornia (actually the two most marginal coalition held seats in the country) barely swung or actually swung to LNP. There's no clear regional pattern as the ALP performance was very mixed in both the Brisbane area and in regional QLD - so it's not like (say) UK Labour gaining Ilford North but losing North Warwickshire, which was explicable in the context of general national patterns. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 11, 2016 16:40:23 GMT
Yes, it's mad to have a decent swing in Flynn and a sh!t one in Capricornia. But Queensland you know?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2016 16:44:18 GMT
Labor actually did better than expected so...So what? Not relevant to analyzing the differences between regions and constituencies. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 11, 2016 16:47:06 GMT
Reply to the remark about hur dur core vote strategies.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 11, 2016 17:35:01 GMT
What would you say is a reasonable length of time to get a postal vote from, say, Carnarvon to Townsville? How about setting a deadline for the submission of postal votes such that they get there prior to the election count. It's hardly rocket science. No but you forget that Australia does not have a universal daily collection postal service and is a much vaster country. It probably is rocket science get postal votes back in in time. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 11, 2016 19:02:59 GMT
For goodness' sakes, stop making excuses! Australia claims to be a developed country, and therefore its vastness should not be an issue.
At least Carnarvon and Townsville are on the same land mass. In this country, if someone registered in Orkney arranges for his postal vote to be sent to the Isles of Scilly, it will arrive weeks in advance of the election. If he fills it out and posts it in time for the last collection the day before the election and sends it first class, it will be on the relevant Returning Officer's desk by mid-morning on polling day. Even when sent second class, it need only be posted three or four days beforehand.
There is no good reason Australia cannot gets it act together in this regard. Allowing postal votes to be returned up to a week after voting is meant to have finished is a recipe for corruption, and the fact that it always favours one of the two main blocs makes it all the more indefensible.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 11, 2016 19:59:23 GMT
Capricornia and Flynn called for the coalition giving them 76 seats. Cowan called for Labor. Just Herbert and Hindmarsh still in doubt. The former is still very close but the latter starting to look like a Labor win. Any news from the 'floating voters' in Harold Holt constituency? |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 12, 2016 5:57:29 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 12, 2016 9:28:00 GMT
Labor lead in Herbert is now just 66 votes.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 13, 2016 8:55:42 GMT
Hindmarsh called for Labor, but LNP now ahead in Herbert.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2016 10:53:30 GMT
Projection at the Poll Bludger has LNP winning Herbert by about 150.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2016 16:58:50 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 15, 2016 8:44:22 GMT
LNP ahead in Herbert by only 12 votes, with 1,113 envelopes left to process.
If it's under 100 lead at the end (and it's almost certain to be), there'll be a full recount before it's declared.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 12:05:49 GMT
John Howard's old seat of Bennelong, lost by him in 2007 but regained by the Liberals in 2010, now appears to have reverted to safe Liberal status, with a further swing of 2% to the Liberal incumbent this time: www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/benn/This was a seat that was widely believed to be trending Labor in the long term, but apparently not. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 15, 2016 12:19:16 GMT
It's because the local Liberals have worked out that middle class Chinese Australians are more than happy to vote Liberal so long as the local Liberals aren't racist towards them.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 15, 2016 14:34:32 GMT
It's because the local Liberals have worked out that middle class Chinese Australians are more than happy to vote Liberal so long as the local Liberals aren't racist towards them. Plenty of centre right parties around the world could learn something from this. The lesson might not be universal but it certainly expands beyond middle class Chinese. |
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