Australian federal election 2016

[Arthur Figgis]

Now:

L/N 50.000178%
ALP 49.999822%

[Arthur Figgis]

And now:

L/N 49.999962%
ALP 50.000038%

[Deleted]

Don't you just love AV?

[Lord Twaddleford]

Jul 7, 2016 23:35:45 GMT swanarcadian said:

Don't you just love AV?

I prefer to call it IRV myself, and even with instances such as this, I'd still take it over FPTP.

[Deleted]

McGowan is siding with the Coalition. Which guarantee they may make it to 76 under any realistic scenario.

Current prognosis is:

Coalition 73, with lead in 3 more
Labor 66, with lead in 3 more 
KAP 1
NXT 1
Greens 1
McGowan
Wilkie

[iain]

Though none are called, ABC is projecting 76-69, so scraping a majority.

[John Chanin]

The Labor lead is down to 7 in Flynn. We are seeing the usual drift to the Liberals as the postals come in.

[Deleted]

The view on the Poll Bludger blog, which features some intelligent postal vote projections, is that coalition will most likely pick up all of Herbert, Flynn and Capricornia and thus end up on 77.

blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/07/07/late-counting-progressively-updated/

[Deleted]

Asked an Aussie why the postal vote is so surprisingly standard and his bid was:

- most of the seats being watched have either a Coalition incumbent or no incumbents. Postal vote campaigns are expensive and usually it's paid for by incumbents.
- the Coalition are traditionally better organised in postal votes than Labor.
- the holiday period only affected the last week of the campaign, so most of the affected would've just voted pre-poll.
- possibe late Labor swing which would make the postal voting disproportionally Coalition by default.

[Deleted]

Labor did worse in the two states where the election was well into the holidays (Queensland and Victoria) than the rest of Australia (NT too has early holidays, but the circumstances up there were special). Both states therefore had a disproportionate share of early votes and postals from holidayers. If those were more favorable to the Coalition than the election day vote this would explain the difference.  So a late Labor swing seems likely despite not showing up in the polls.

Labor only got a 1.5% swing in Victoria and ended up losing seats there. In Queensland the swing was slightly below average and Labor look like only picking up the one seat (although Labor lead in four others on "ordinary" votes). In contrast every other state had bigger swings and bigger seat changes.

Winter school holidays:
Australian Capital Territory: 2 July to 17 July
New South Wales: 2 July to 18 July
Northern Territory: 25 June to 24 July
Queensland: 25 June to 10 July
South Australia: 9 July to 24 July
Tasmania: 2 July to 17 July
Victoria: 25 June to 10 July
Western Australia: 2 July to 17 July

[iain]

Forde called for the Coalition.

They're now also running ahead in Flynn and Capricornia.

[timrollpickering]

Jul 9, 2016 9:54:39 GMT iain said:

Forde called for the Coalition.

And it only took six days!

[Deleted]

Shorten has official conceded the election to Turnbull and the Liberals.

[Deleted]

Looks like 77-68-5 unless Labor manage to scrape a gain in Herbert in which case 76-69-5.

[Foggy]

So, Australia's method of counting the votes (and the absurdly late last date for returning postal ballots) has turned its slow trickle of results on this occasion into a tease of the left [and Bob Katter], but with the right ultimately triumphing – at least in the House.

[timrollpickering]

What would you say is a reasonable length of time to get a postal vote from, say, Carnarvon to Townsville?

[Richard Allen]

Capricornia and Flynn called for the coalition giving them 76 seats. Cowan called for Labor.

Just Herbert and Hindmarsh still in doubt. The former is still very close but the latter starting to look like a Labor win.

[Deleted]

Having looked quite good on the night, Labor have had rather a disastrous outcome in Queensland, gaining just 1 seat (or 2 if Herbert comes through). They achieved some very good swings in the less marginal seats of Herbert, Flynn, Dickson and Longman - gaining Longman which was only the 10th most marginal LNP seat in the state. If they had replicated these swings in the more marginal seats they would also have gained Petrie, Capricornia, Bonner, Brisbane, Forde and Leichhardt, but they went backwards in Petrie and Brisbane, only achieved very small swings in Capricornia Leichhardt and Bonner, and just fell short in Forde. It would be interesting to learn more about why the swings were so varying.

[mboy]

Sounds like a "core votes" strategy at work.

[Andrew_S]

Jul 11, 2016 13:08:05 GMT mboy said:

Sounds like a "core votes" strategy at work.

You could say it was a postal votes strategy. They've made all the difference.