john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785 
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Post by john07 on Jul 5, 2016 20:41:20 GMT
Left we have: Capricornia - Labor ahead, 50.7% (Rockhampton and a huge swathe of back-country N Queensland) Chisholm - Liberal ahead, 50.3% (Labor held)(Melbourne suburbs) Cowan - Labor ahead, 50.7% (Perth suburbs) Dunkley - Liberal ahead, 50.3%(Outer SE Melbourne ) Forde - Labor ahead, 50.1% (Suburban sprawl between Brisbane & Gold Coast) Gilmore - Liberal ahead, 50.2% (Small town S NSW extending up to Wollongong) Herbert - Labor ahead, 50.6% (Townsville) Hindmarsh - Labor ahead, 50.2% (Adelaide suburbs around the airport) The Australian habit of naming constituencies after obscure worthies means that it is difficult to follow the results. I thought locating the outstanding seats might help. Have they got a Harold Holt constituency? That would be one that is disappearing into the sea. |
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Post by aross on Jul 5, 2016 22:38:33 GMT
The Australian habit of naming constituencies after obscure worthies means that it is difficult to follow the results. I thought locating the outstanding seats might help. Have they got a Harold Holt constituency? That would be one that is disappearing into the sea. There's this... |
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Post by slicesofjim on Jul 5, 2016 23:42:51 GMT
I may not be happy with the result in the most recent referendum, but the painful and tedious electoral process in Australia makes me extremely glad that the AV proposal was soundly defeated.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Jul 5, 2016 23:54:19 GMT
I may not be happy with the result in the most recent referendum, but the painful and tedious electoral process in Australia makes me extremely glad that the AV proposal was soundly defeated. I don't think the delays are much to do with AV. It seems to be down to way that postal votes are dealt with and the counting procedures employed. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 5, 2016 23:57:23 GMT
I may not be happy with the result in the most recent referendum, but the painful and tedious electoral counting process in Australia makes me extremely glad that the AV proposal was soundly defeated we knew the result by breakfast time on the Friday morning. FTFY. |
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Post by dizz on Jul 6, 2016 6:30:18 GMT
Now Coalition: 71
ALP: 67,
& Coalition have inched ahead in Forde so looking like:
Coalition: 75/74
ALP: 70/71
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 6, 2016 7:06:52 GMT
Dunkley called for the Liberals (now 71). 7 left. Labor looking good in Capricornia and Cowan. Less than 200 votes in it currently in Forde & Hindmarsh.
There is of course a Holt seat in Melbourne where he made his career. The constituency most at risk of falling into the sea is Fadden, named after a bloke who was prime minister for a month after the second world war - although he did come from Queensland where Fadden is situated. Perhaps Gippsland would be more appropriate which is the lowest lying part of the Victorian coast.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 6, 2016 9:06:53 GMT
Chisholm called for the Liberals (their only gain of the day), but Flynn (the neighbouring seat to Capricornia) has been thrown back into doubt, so still 71 with 7 outstanding. Liberals now 1000 votes ahead in Gilmore with 89% counted, so that should be OK for them. Agree with dizz that looking like 74 or 75. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2016 17:52:35 GMT
I may not be happy with the result in the most recent referendum, but the painful and tedious electoral process in Australia makes me extremely glad that the AV proposal was soundly defeated. Why? The delay is because of the postal votes continuing to arrive up to two weeks after polling day. It has nothing to do with AV counting. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Jul 7, 2016 1:36:56 GMT
Gilmore called for the Liberals.
Coalition - 73
Labor - 66
Other - 5
In doubt - 6 - Labor lead in all of these
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Jul 7, 2016 5:38:12 GMT
Katter announces he backs Coalition, but can withdraw his support if he disagrees with policies.
He also stressed he is an union man and than any union-bashing legislation will cause him to withdraw support.
As the three bills causing the double dissolution were reforms of the building industry considered to severely weaken unions, we can assume there won't be a joint sitting and than those bills and dead and buried.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 7, 2016 6:55:25 GMT
Labor lead down to 21 in Hindmarsh. It's possible the coalition can still scrape it, but 75 looks most likely.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 7, 2016 9:15:08 GMT
As the three bills causing the double dissolution were reforms of the building industry considered to severely weaken unions, we can assume there won't be a joint sitting and than those bills and dead and buried. I don't think a joint sitting was winnable in any case - the Senate numbers would not have been outbalanced by the House. It's not like 1974 when only two Senators were outside the two blocs. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Jul 7, 2016 9:36:37 GMT
As the three bills causing the double dissolution were reforms of the building industry considered to severely weaken unions, we can assume there won't be a joint sitting and than those bills and dead and buried. I don't think a joint sitting was winnable in any case - the Senate numbers would not have been outbalanced by the House. It's not like 1974 when only two Senators were outside the two blocs. Oh, I think that's clear, but they still might have done it to use as a political football (to embarass or for the Senate is overruling the House nonsense, because industry is clear, they won't accept Liberals renouncing to pass the bill. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2016 9:47:06 GMT
I may not be happy with the result in the most recent referendum, but the painful and tedious electoral process in Australia makes me extremely glad that the AV proposal was soundly defeated. I don't think the delays are much to do with AV. It seems to be down to way that postal votes are dealt with and the counting procedures employed. The deadline for receipt of postal votes is 15 July so no count will be finalised before then. There are also the prepoll (early voting) and absent (voting outside your own area on polling day) votes to be repatriated to the relevant counts. These are what will be counted late on. Generally postals favour the coalition, so there is some drift to them from the numbers on the night. The drift is particularly strong in Flynn, Herbert and Capricornia so it is quite possible that the coalition will get to 76 or 77. All three are regional Queensland seats. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2016 10:06:40 GMT
I don't think the delays are much to do with AV. It seems to be down to way that postal votes are dealt with and the counting procedures employed. The deadline for receipt of postal votes is 15 July so no count will be finalised before then. There are also the prepoll (early voting) and absent (voting outside your own area on polling day) votes to be repatriated to the relevant counts. These are what will be counted late on. Generally postals favour the coalition, so there is some drift to them from the numbers on the night. The election was held in the second term school holidays everywhere outside of South Australia, which means the pattern of postal votes will be differ from the usual with a lot more leftist students in the mix. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2016 10:08:59 GMT
The deadline for receipt of postal votes is 15 July so no count will be finalised before then. There are also the prepoll (early voting) and absent (voting outside your own area on polling day) votes to be repatriated to the relevant counts. These are what will be counted late on. Generally postals favour the coalition, so there is some drift to them from the numbers on the night. The election was held in the second term school holidays everywhere outside of South Australia, which means the pattern of postal votes will be differ from the usual with a lot more leftist students in the mix. Patterns don't seem too different from normal atm. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2016 10:14:12 GMT
The election was held in the second term school holidays everywhere outside of South Australia, which means the pattern of postal votes will differ from the usual with a lot more leftist students in the mix. Patterns don't seem too different from normal atm. Maybe, but that won't necessarily be the case in the end. The election being held in winter with most of the country on school holidays, which in addition to students means more public sector employees than private, is bound to influence the mix. Though various effects may end up canceling each other out. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 7, 2016 14:03:52 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,706
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Post by mboy on Jul 7, 2016 23:11:03 GMT
Wow.
Lib 49.997781%
Lab 50.002219%
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