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Post by John Chanin on Jul 4, 2016 9:47:23 GMT
Latest ABC prediction is 72-72. Looks to me like Nick Xenophon will decide who rules, unless the outstanding seats all swing one way or another from ABC predictions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2016 9:54:41 GMT
Those figures only add up to 149 (although it's ridiculous that most Aussie legislative bodies have an even number of seats). The Coalition should be on 65 (+7) = 72, so it's a dead heat. Katter leans right, the Greens to the left, so it's up to the 3 or 4 centrists who governs. I think both independent MPs have already ruled out any kind of formal agreement, so it's likely the next House election will take place sooner than 2019. EDIT: ABC's calculator is also not taking into account possible Labor losses in the Victoria constituencies of Batman and Melbourne Ports. The 150th is the Speakers seat. The Tasmania Indie is to the left of Labor, not a centrist. On some issues yes, though he is a maverick, not dissimilar to Xenophon. He won't deal with the Coalition mainly because he would be voted out post haste if he did so. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2016 9:57:18 GMT
This isn't the UK, or even Ireland. If the Coalition loses power, the Speaker will probably come from the ALP benches. I know Peter Slipper carried on for a bit following the 2010 election... but looked what happened to him after that! There was a Labor speaker initially after 2010, but he stood down to be replaced by Slipper in 2011. Slipper's acceptance was against the wishes of the Coalition and the fun and games started shortly afterwards. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2016 14:48:11 GMT
Evaluation by an Australian Atlas Forum poster.
Basically, the way I see it is:
Coalition -> wants to work alone, but as always, will take what they can get
Bob Katter -> will only work with Coalition
Andrew Wilkie -> says he doesn't want to make any deals, but if push comes to shove, he can hammer out an agreement with Labor
Adam Bandt/Greens -> will only work with Labor (and is keen)
Labor -> really wants to avoid having to work with Greens if they can help it
Cathy McGowan -> says she doesn't want to make any deals, but if push comes to shove, I feel like she would side with Labor and then lose re-election. could be wrong though.
NXT -> wildcards
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 4, 2016 14:59:59 GMT
Why is counting taking so long all of a sudden? Not a single seat is over 90% in.
Why do Labor do so well in Lingiari? Aboriginal population? Personal vote?
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 4, 2016 15:15:31 GMT
Why is counting taking so long all of a sudden? Not a single seat is over 90% in. A different way of doing things. Postal votes only have to be sent by polling day and can come in for up to two weeks later. Out of constituency votes (you can vote at any polling station you like) take time to transport to the correct count. Declaration votes for uncertain cases also take time to go through. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 4, 2016 15:27:40 GMT
Evaluation by an Australian Atlas Forum poster. Basically, the way I see it is: Coalition -> wants to work alone, but as always, will take what they can get Bob Katter -> will only work with Coalition Andrew Wilkie -> says he doesn't want to make any deals, but if push comes to shove, he can hammer out an agreement with Labor Adam Bandt/Greens -> will only work with Labor (and is keen) Labor -> really wants to avoid having to work with Greens if they can help it Cathy McGowan -> says she doesn't want to make any deals, but if push comes to shove, I feel like she would side with Labor and then lose re-election. could be wrong though. NXT -> wildcards Is she Ready Steady Go? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2016 16:25:12 GMT
Why is counting taking so long all of a sudden? Not a single seat is over 90% in. Why do Labor do so well in Lingiari? Aboriginal population? Personal vote? They didn't do any counting on Monday. Resuming tomorrow. Lingiari: yes to both of those, it has the largest aboriginal electorate in the country at around 40% and the MP gets around. The other NT seat (Solomon, ie Darwin) also saw a big swing to Labor, possibly relating to the unpopularity of the Territory government. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 4, 2016 16:26:06 GMT
Since this was a double dissolution, the first things that are supposed to be considered by the new Parliament once it convenes are the 'trigger' bills from the previous Parliament in a joint session. That is obviously a situation unique to Australia, so I'm not sure what effect this will have on the process of forming a new government. No. First a Government must be formed (a Speaker elected, Speech From the Throne and so on) and then they can consider these bills, as any normal bill introduced. Those bills must pass the House again and if Senate rejects them, there will be a joint sitting, if the PM wants to do so. My apologies, you are quite right. The information on double dissolutions that I had read before the election did not make this clear. A quick check of Wikipedia reveals that despite the fact that there have been a few double dissolutions, there has only been one such joint sitting as envisaged by the Constitution. This time the 'trigger' legislation might not even pass the House, let alone the Senate, so it shouldn't come to that eventuality. Thanks also to @strinity for jogging my memory with regard to the exact chronology of events regarding the speakership during the Gillard government years. There may have been some personal vote for a good candidate, but it's mainly due to the extreme unpopularity of the current CLP administration at Territorial level. Lots of Aboriginal citizens were persuaded to vote for the CLP last time and soon came to regret it. The ALP is likely to take back power there at the end of next month. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 4, 2016 16:29:03 GMT
Why do Labor do so well in Lingiari? Aboriginal population? Personal vote? Both |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 4, 2016 16:56:05 GMT
Australian election night programme:
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 4, 2016 23:50:49 GMT
Provisional results map:  When they are *final* you'll get (as always) one with a more detailed key etc. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jul 5, 2016 4:55:45 GMT
Why do Labor do so well in Lingiari? Aboriginal population? Personal vote? And the Country Liberal Party of Northern Territory (in power right now, not for long anymore) looked less unified than UK Labour Party and less professionnal than a parish council. They actually won 16-8-1 the last election and now the Assembly is hung with 11 Liberals, 7 Labor and 7 Independents, including someone being kicked for videos of masturbating to a constituent, most indigenous MLAs leaving the party (with the party President), fights over the party leadership (there was 2 spills, one in 2012 (successful), one in 2015 (see below)). There was a leadership spill in 2015, but the defeated incumbent refused to step down and said the new leader would not get the confidence of the Assembly. There was a deal making the coup leader Deputy CM (he had to resign due to a conflict of interest scandal). The speaker was impeached for commenting on Facebook against a decision of the Federal Liberal government, but relected on select ballot right after (and she also left the party). There was so much changes in Cabinet (they were on their 10th in June 2015) that every single CLP MLA had been in Cabinet as some point this term (many having to leave due to various financial scandals) and they had 5 Deputy Chief Ministers, including one that two stints at the job. It is a mess, and, thankfully, it ends at the end of August (no way they get releected). Did I mentioned scandals? A summary stopping in July 2015 (yeah, I know, it's the Guardian): www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/10/how-the-northern-territory-government-went-from-landslide-to-laughing-stockIt is a disaster and polls suggest a Labor landslide. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 5, 2016 8:38:30 GMT
Grey just called for the Liberals, seeing off NXT. Liberals now have 69 seats with 9 still to call. Looks like they'll hold Petrie, but anyone's guess on the remaining 8. ABC still estimating most of them will be ALP with the count crawling snail-like onwards.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 5, 2016 9:39:46 GMT
Petrie called for the Liberals
70-67 with 8 to go
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 5, 2016 9:49:07 GMT
Left we have:
Capricornia - Labor ahead, 50.7%
Chisholm - Liberal ahead, 50.3% (Labor held)
Cowan - Labor ahead, 50.7%
Dunkley - Liberal ahead, 50.3%
Forde - Labor ahead, 50.1%
Gilmore - Liberal ahead, 50.2%
Herbert - Labor ahead, 50.6%
Hindmarsh - Labor ahead, 50.2%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2016 9:59:45 GMT
States by PV (2 blocs only)
Victoria
ALP - 51.92% (+1.72)
LNC - 48.08%
New South Wales
LNC - 50.20%
ALP - 49.80% (+4.15)
Queensland
LNC - 53.51%
ALP - 46.49% (+3.47)
Western Australia
LNC - 53.19%
ALP - 46.81% (+5.09)
Northern Territory
ALP - 58.02% (+8.37)
LNC - 41.98%
South Australia
ALP - 56.97% (+9.33)
LNC - 43.03%
Tasmania
ALP - 55.76% (+4.53)
LNC - 44.24%
Capital Territory
ALP - 61.33% (+1.42)
LNC - 38.67%
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 5, 2016 13:57:47 GMT
Left we have: Capricornia - Labor ahead, 50.7% (Rockhampton and a huge swathe of back-country N Queensland) Chisholm - Liberal ahead, 50.3% (Labor held)(Melbourne suburbs) Cowan - Labor ahead, 50.7% (Perth suburbs) Dunkley - Liberal ahead, 50.3%(Outer SE Melbourne ) Forde - Labor ahead, 50.1% (Suburban sprawl between Brisbane & Gold Coast) Gilmore - Liberal ahead, 50.2% (Small town S NSW extending up to Wollongong) Herbert - Labor ahead, 50.6% (Townsville) Hindmarsh - Labor ahead, 50.2% (Adelaide suburbs around the airport) The Australian habit of naming constituencies after obscure worthies means that it is difficult to follow the results. I thought locating the outstanding seats might help. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 5, 2016 18:32:42 GMT
In 2010 the two-party preferred national margin was 30,527 votes. This time it currently stands at 39,512 votes.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 5, 2016 20:18:12 GMT
Left we have: Capricornia - Labor ahead, 50.7% (Rockhampton and a huge swathe of back-country N Queensland) Chisholm - Liberal ahead, 50.3% (Labor held)(Melbourne suburbs) Cowan - Labor ahead, 50.7% (Perth suburbs) Dunkley - Liberal ahead, 50.3%(Outer SE Melbourne ) Forde - Labor ahead, 50.1% (Suburban sprawl between Brisbane & Gold Coast) Gilmore - Liberal ahead, 50.2% (Small town S NSW extending up to Wollongong) Herbert - Labor ahead, 50.6% (Townsville) Hindmarsh - Labor ahead, 50.2% (Adelaide suburbs around the airport) The Australian habit of naming constituencies after obscure worthies means that it is difficult to follow the results. I thought locating the outstanding seats might help. Forde is not obscure, he was Prime Minister of Australia for... Yeah you're right. |
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