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Post by finsobruce on Jul 3, 2016 21:21:01 GMT
I had no idea that the ABC in Australia was nicknamed "aunty", in the same way the BBC is here. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 3, 2016 21:44:29 GMT
ABC's current distribution of seats ("in doubt" seats in parentheses) Labor 67( + 5)= 72 Coalition 65( + 6)= 71 Xenophon 1( + 1) = 2 Greens 1 KAP 1 Indies 2 Xenophon holding the balance of power. Those figures only add up to 149 (although it's ridiculous that most Aussie legislative bodies have an even number of seats). The Coalition should be on 65 (+7) = 72, so it's a dead heat. Katter leans right, the Greens to the left, so it's up to the 3 or 4 centrists who governs. I think both independent MPs have already ruled out any kind of formal agreement, so it's likely the next House election will take place sooner than 2019. EDIT: ABC's calculator is also not taking into account possible Labor losses in the Victoria constituencies of Batman and Melbourne Ports. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 3, 2016 21:56:16 GMT
How long will it be until those counts are complete (or nearly complete)?
At this stage, though, I sadly think it is unlikely (although nevertheless still possible) that overall the Greens will gain Batman and/or Melbourne Ports.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 22:01:07 GMT
ABC's current distribution of seats ("in doubt" seats in parentheses) Labor 67( + 5)= 72 Coalition 65( + 6)= 71 Xenophon 1( + 1) = 2 Greens 1 KAP 1 Indies 2 Xenophon holding the balance of power. (although it's ridiculous that most Aussie legislative bodies have an even number of seats). The Coalition should be on 65 (+7) = 72, so it's a dead heat. Katter leans right, the Greens to the left, so it's up to the 3 or 4 centrists who governs. I think both independent MPs have already ruled out any kind of formal agreement, so it's likely the next House election will take place sooner than 2019. EDIT: ABC's calculator is also not taking into account possible Labor losses in the Victoria constituencies of Batman and Melbourne Ports. The 150th is the Speakers seat. The Tasmania Indie is to the left of Labor, not a centrist. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 3, 2016 22:14:35 GMT
This isn't the UK, or even Ireland. If the Coalition loses power, the Speaker will probably come from the ALP benches. I know Peter Slipper carried on for a bit following the 2010 election... but looked what happened to him after that!
I understand Wilkie is a sort of proxy Green, yes, but if he chooses to use the 'independent' designation instead, I'm going to class him as a centrist for these purposes to keep things simpler.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 22:16:38 GMT
The only natural ally the Coalition has is Katter. Given that the aim is to either get to 76, or show the Governor-General they have the ability to guarantee supply that looks hard. Xenophon has said his key criteria is who can best deliver stable government - and that includes the Senate, where the Labor/Green bloc seems to become stronger than the Coalition.
LNP needs to be at 74-75 to make sure they can govern, ALP could be as low as 71.
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Post by dizz on Jul 3, 2016 22:18:37 GMT
ABC's current distribution of seats ("in doubt" seats in parentheses) Labor 67( + 5)= 72 Coalition 65( + 6)= 71 Xenophon 1( + 1) = 2 Greens 1 KAP 1 Indies 2 Xenophon holding the balance of power. I think it is +7 for the Coalition on ABC's present numbers. Also, on Saturday they were saying that postals might favour the Coalition so it shouldn't be assumed that Labor will be +5. |
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Post by Foggy on Jul 3, 2016 22:27:00 GMT
Turnbull is the incumbent. If he doesn't resign, it's difficult for the Governor-General to do anything.
Agreed about Katter being the only natural Coalition ally – yet even he helped to proper up the Gillard administration. It's true that supply in Australia also depends on the upper house, but the non-Green crossbench there is likely to be tacking more towards the right for the next 6 years (unless there's *another* double dissolution before then).
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 3, 2016 22:37:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 22:40:12 GMT
Turnbull is the incumbent. If he doesn't resign, it's difficult for the Governor-General to do anything. Agreed about Katter being the only natural Coalition ally – yet even he helped to proper up the Gillard administration. It's true that supply in Australia also depends on the upper house, but the non-Green crossbench there is likely to be tacking more towards the right for the next 6 years (unless there's *another* double dissolution before then). The point about the Senate is that Xenophon will be likely to support the side that controls the Senate if the two sides are about equal in the House. He has more or less said as much. You over estimate the importance of incumbency. Turnbull needs to show the G-G he has the ability to guarantee supply. He can't just continue as if nothing had happened. |
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Post by Foggy on Jul 3, 2016 22:54:40 GMT
I'm sorry but I am not overestimating anything. You are wilfully ignoring the primacy of incumbency under a Westminster system, and how controversial it was when Julian Bing and John Kerr disregarded it. This principle has been tested at state level in Australia since then. Therefore, Peter Cosgrove is highly unlikely to repeat their error.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 3, 2016 23:23:56 GMT
At the moment Lab + Green are predicted to be on 73 seats. In addition Labor are 66 votes behind the Liberals in Chisholm, 405 votes behind in Gilmore, and 438 votes behind in Dunkley. If those three eventually go to Labor they'll have an overall majority with the Greens.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 3, 2016 23:30:49 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 4, 2016 0:01:30 GMT
One can't underestimate the effect state-level politics on all this. Labor should not be losing a seat like Chisholm – even if it is a marginal – at a time when there's a national move towards them, but the ALP Premier of Victoria has apparently picked a fight with firefighters down there (and the Coalition has been happy to exploit that by turning professional firemen against volunteers). If their only loss of the night costs them government, they'll rue that avoidable dispute.
This also explains the loss of support for the CLP in the north, whilst the swing back to Labor in Tasmania comes because in September 2013 the ALP-led state government was deeply unpopular, but by now voters are tired of the Liberal one that replaced it in February 2014.
As for Katter: he suffered in 2013 from having backed Gillard and because he tried to run his personalist vehicle party as a proper national campaign. This time he spent most of the past two months staying within his own (huge area-wise) seat and only ran a few token candidates elsewhere in Queensland.
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Post by maxque on Jul 4, 2016 0:09:43 GMT
I'm sorry but I am not overestimating anything. You are wilfully ignoring the primacy of incumbency under a Westminster system, and how controversial it was when Julian Bing and John Kerr disregarded it. This principle has been tested at state level in Australia since then. Therefore, Peter Cosgrove is highly unlikely to repeat their error. You are overestimating it, because, if it's clear Labour can get more votes than the Coalition in the House, Turnbull will be knived by Liberals very quickly. So no more incumbent. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 4, 2016 0:11:06 GMT
The only natural ally the Coalition has is Katter. Katter is not a natural ally of anybody. He will support which ever side offers him what he considers the best deal. |
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Post by Foggy on Jul 4, 2016 0:16:25 GMT
If Turnbull is removed from his position as Liberal leader before anyone has faced a vote of confidence in the House, I believe that this would be an unprecedented situation. I'm not sure that the Governor-General could immediately call on the new leader to be sworn in, but he cannot leave the position of Prime Minister vacant either. What a mess standard Commonwealth Realm practice has become!
Since this was a double dissolution, the first things that are supposed to be considered by the new Parliament once it convenes are the 'trigger' bills from the previous Parliament in a joint session. That is obviously a situation unique to Australia, so I'm not sure what effect this will have on the process of forming a new government.
And yes, pork-barreling may well end up as the overriding consideration for Katter once again.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2016 0:17:19 GMT
The only natural ally the Coalition has is Katter. Katter is not a natural ally of anybody. He will support which ever side offers him what he considers the best deal. The Coalition will be able to offer Katter more of what he wants (as their base and allies would accept it) than ALP, which makes him a natural ally of the Coalition. |
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Post by maxque on Jul 4, 2016 0:49:54 GMT
Since this was a double dissolution, the first things that are supposed to be considered by the new Parliament once it convenes are the 'trigger' bills from the previous Parliament in a joint session. That is obviously a situation unique to Australia, so I'm not sure what effect this will have on the process of forming a new government. No. First a Government must be formed (a Speaker elected, Speech From the Throne and so on) and then they can consider these bills, as any normal bill introduced. Those bills must pass the House again and if Senate rejects them, there will be a joint sitting, if the PM wants to do so. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 4, 2016 8:29:23 GMT
Hoist with own petard time:
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